Behind the Numbers

Every month in this space I give you the statistics on what the market is doing in Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock and Prince William counties. (With Warren thrown in occasionally!)

What I haven't really talked about is where this data comes from and what inherent flaws there might be in this data. It now seems like I'm overdue for that discussion.

Each month the data I use as the basis for my analysis comes from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The MLS that serves our area is called MRIS. The data in this system comes from what the agents input. They input their listings and they input the information when it gets sold.

So, here's the first weakness in the system, the human factor. People forget, get lazy, get busy, etc. It's the same problem with every system, anywhere, run by people!

There are brokerages that still don't list properties in the MLS. They are few and far between, but a few of them still exist. (By the way, if you really don't want your house to get sold, just keep it out of the MLS!)

Builders generally don't list every house they have for sale in the MLS. They'll list, perhaps, one of each model they have. So the MLS always understates the total inventory and seriously understates new construction inventory.

While many For Sale By Owner (FSBO) properties are now in the MLS, many more are still not, relying on the handwritten sign in the yard. Again, this understates inventory.

But for whatever flaws there are, the MLS is the best system we've got. It's as close as I can get to getting a total snapshot of the market at any given time.