Challenging Tax Assessments

It's no secret that local governments are hurting financially these days. And, property taxes are a huge source of funding. It's only natural that they'd turn once again to this potential source of additional funds.

Of course, the problem is that home values have declined substantially and so, in the normal course of things, you'd expect the assessments to decline as well.

But most of us will not see assessments that look anything like what our homes are actually worth.

I'm sympathetic to government's need for funds to keep important things like schools, fire fighters and police working. But I also know how hard things are for many families right now.

If your property tax assessment looks out of whack, don't be afraid to challenge it. The Virginia Homeowner's Alliance is now giving you the tools to do just that.

And, while you're there, think about joining. It's a great and growing organization and it won't cost you a penny to join!

New Appraisal Requirements

As of May 1st, guidelines will change for appraisals on mortgages that want Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac's blessing. Up until now, your lender chose the appraiser when you applied for a loan. The fee was typically in the $350 range. Each lender had a list of appraisers that they had approved. And, you, as the home buyer, paid for the appraisal at settlement. In this market the seller often gave you money to pay for the appraisal.

Now, lenders will not be allowed to choose the appraiser they use. You can see the reasoning for this. There was a lot of fraud over the last few years. There were crooked lenders using crooked appraisers to "cook" the appraisals to come up with the numbers they wanted/needed. And, that's one piece of why we're in the financial mess we're in.

But no one is very happy about the medicine they'll be taking on this one. Lenders will now go to third party companies who will then assign it to an appraiser they have on their books. Because of the change, appraisers will likely get paid less. But, because another layer has been added in, the consumer will likely pay more.

And, because of the change, buyers will no longer be able to pay for the appraisal at settlement. They'll be required to pay up front. At a time when buyers are putting out cash for other things like home inspections as well, it'll make the money a little tighter. Hopefully, seller's contributions to settlement costs can still be used at settlement to reimburse the buyer for this expense.

As we begin to use the new system, no doubt we'll notice other changes. Stay tuned for more.

Gainesville Dying?

A Reuters article this week suggests that Gainesville is a dying community.

I think the article gets some things right and others wrong.

Gainesville home sales are jumping. And in the lower prices we're seeing bidding wars and/or multiple offers. That doesn't signal to me that the entire community is dying. And, yes, there are still a lot more foreclosures to come. If they come at a measured pace the market will quickly absorb them.

On the other hand, I continue to see buyers less willing to do the long commute. So, unless the pool of jobs within a reasonable driving distance of Gainesville increases, the community has some tough times ahead.

And, the further out you go (think Fauquier County) the more commuters have opted out.

Are new, good jobs going to be created in these communities? Or, are we simply going to be smaller?

March Market Numbers

Prince William county continues on its headlong pace towards a seller's market. There's now only a four month supply of inventory in Prince William county. And, that's not because there's no inventory coming on the market. 1116 new listings were added last month. Meanwhile, 1200 went under contract. We are seeing many fewer new listings added than a year ago at this time. 1631 new listings were added in March of 2008. Meanwhile, closed sales were at 750 in March of 2009 compared to 502 a year ago. Meanwhile, the average sold price crept up from last month's $204K to $210K this month.

I'm not expecting big leaps in pricing in Prince William county. But given the short supply and the increasing demand I think we'll likely continue to see small gains in prices throughout the spring/summer season.

I'm thrilled at the progress we're making in Culpeper. We're down to 8 months of inventory there. Last year at this time there were over 800 homes for sale. This month there are only 464. Last year in March we sold 42 homes, this year 58. There is a March jump in new listings in Culpeper and the other counties, but nothing like the jump we've seen in recent years. And, as long as the net result is still declining inventory, the indicators seem pointed in the right direction.

Prices are still falling in Culpeper County, but I predict we'll see some stabilization by the end of the season. There are already signs of that in the bidding wars on properties priced under $300K.

Fauquier is moving in the right direction, but more slowly than Culpeper or Prince William. We've still got almost 13 months of inventory in Fauquier County. As in the other counties, the lower priced tier of homes is moving pretty quickly. But there's an awful lot of inventory above $350K that's just sitting. There are fewer foreclosures in Fauquier and, in some sense, that's hurting the market. Many of the buyers out there are bargain hunters. And, the bargains are harder to find in Fauquier County.

Still, the inventory is down to 556 as compared to 734 at this time last year. But unlike Culpeper and Prince William County, Fauquier's inventory actually rose this month compared to last month. That's not unusual for March, but is unusual compared to what's going on around us. Last March 35 homes sold in Fauquier County. This year in March it was 43. Again, we're headed in the right direction, but slowly.

Prices are still falling in Fauquier. The average sales price is $224K now as opposed to $318K a year ago. Fauquier is the hardest county to make a case for price stabilization this year. I don't anticipate stabilization in prices until we get a lot closer to six months of inventory. We may hit that level if we have an extraordinary spring/summer season. For now, my bet is that Fauquier prices remain the most likely to continue to fall.

Rappahannock County shows inventory rising slightly (76 compared to 71 a year ago). New listings were 17 in March of this year compared to 11 a year ago. There was 1 new contract in March and 3 closed sales. Those are typical Rappahannock numbers. This is the county that tends to be more sheltered from the real estate trends in the rest of the area. Prices do seem to still be falling in Rappahannock, although it's hard to identify by looking at the overall trends. And, Rappahannock residents continue to take their properties off the market rather than suffer the loss in value.

Disappearing Shadow

In the tough seller's market of the last few years a lot of sellers have tested the waters by putting their house up for sale, and, in the end, retreated. All those houses that will theoretically come back on the market when the market improves are called shadow inventory.

We're looking at two basic kinds of shadow inventory. The first is individual owners. They want to sell, maybe even already tried and are just waiting for the right moment to put their home on the market.

The second kind of shadow inventory is foreclosure inventory. The banks are reportedly sitting on 600,000 homes nationwide that they've already foreclosed on, but aren't yet putting on the market.

Both of these categories have the potential to dramatically increase inventory, which has been steadily dropping for at least a year now.

The thing is, I'm not overly worried and I think the danger has been exaggerated.

Yes, there are a lot of homeowners who still want to sell. But it's not just the low number of sales that keep them from trying. They also don't want to sell at these prices. And, if they're going to wait for prices to recover even a quarter of what they've lost, I think they're looking at waiting several years. Some of those homeowners will have changed their mind by then. They'll remodel the house to suit their needs and they'll stay. Those that do still sell will not do so in one huge mass. Some will have a higher tolerance for lower prices and will sell sooner. Others will likely wait a year or two or three. I don't believe there will be some magical month where all this "shadow" inventory pops onto the market at once.

The foreclosure properties are a bigger concern. But I'm still not convinced it will be a huge problem. A lot of those 600,000 homes will be in CA, FL, NV and MI, places hit harder than we were. So, the numbers will likely be smaller than people anticipate. Secondly, the bulk of these are likely to be at the lower price ranges. We've actually got a shortage of inventory at those price levels. In places like Prince William County and even Culpeper County, a lot of inventory would be absorbed very quickly by first time buyers. And, I believe the banks are deliberate spreading out the foreclosures in order to manage their losses. It's not in their interests to dump everything on the market at once.

So when someone tries to scare you with all the shadow inventory waiting to hit the market, take it with a grain of salt. It may not be all that bad!

Fauquier Goes After Foreclosure Funds

I mentioned in a recent blog post that the Commonwealth of Virginia is desperately seeking a home for monies from the federal government, as part of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, designed to help localities buy up foreclosed properties.

Hallelujah! Fauquier County is going after that money! Kristen Slawter has been working on this for the county and will be putting together a grant application of up to $2 million to buy properties in Remington and Bealeton.

I hope there's a lot of local support for this effort. There is an informational meeting being held at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, April 15th at 10 Hotel Street in Warrenton.

These homes would be rehabbed if necessary and then sold to local low or moderate income residents. There's a huge need for more affordable housing in the county. If we can get people homes and reduce the number of foreclosures I think we've got a win/win for everyone!

Industry Shake Up

Matthew Ferrara is a real estate industry sage, often ahead of the rest of us in where things are going. His latest blog post is terrific!

If you want to know how the industry is going to change, how it must change, read this piece!

Clearly this is an industry that, overall, right now, is reacting rather than charting its own course. The consumer is dragging the real estate industry kicking and screaming where it needs to go.

We'll all be better for the change!

I've seen signs that there are some agents, brokers and even brokerages that get it. But it's a small number. There's a lot of pain and growth still ahead. I like to think it'll be an exciting time!