Archives
April 2008
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Did you know that only 2% of homeowners ever challenge their property tax assessments? But the ones who do have a 75% success rate!
What if the dying inner cities of a generation ago will now be replaced by dying suburbs as gas prices soar? We're already seeing evidence of revitalized city centers and emptying suburbs full of McMansions. Temprorary blip or permanent restructuring?
A court in California ruled that the clause in a new home purchase contract mandating that disputes after settlement go through binding arbitration rather than court was "unconscionable" and therefore unenforcable. The court said it was unconscionable because of "oppression" and "surprise". According to the court "oppression arises when the parties have unequal bargaining power, leading to no real negotiation and lack of meaningful choice. Surprise may arise when challenged terms are hidden in a 'prolix wordy or long-winded printed form' drafted by a party in a superior bargaining position." I find the rationale in this as interesting as the decision itself. What does this say about builder's contracts in general?
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The Federal Government, through the Hope Now initiative, has been painting a surprisingly rosy picture of the number of homeowners they've helped.
The real numbers show a lot less reason for optimism.
Unless someone figures out a way to keep people in their homes and stop the downward spiral of prices, we've got a ways to go in this downturn.
The preliminary numbers I've looked at for April confirm that things are not looking up. More on that next week.
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There are those people who believe you have to give up your dreams to make a living. Kathi Fillmore is definitely not one of those people! Following her dreams of a life working with horses has worked out just fine!
You’ll find Kathi, these days, at her new farm, Cinnamon Ridge, right here in Amissville. It’s the latest home for the business of horses, her passion. Kathi was in love with horses from the time she was three years old and got her first cowgirl outfit. Back in those days a horse of her own was out of the question. As part of a military family she moved around the country and a horse was not part of the allowed household items! But when she was about 11 the family settled in Virginia and it didn’t take long before she had her first horse, a blind pony that was given to her.
Kathi soon learned to ride and stayed involved with horses all through high school. But her practical family and friends advised her that she couldn’t possibly make a living in the horse business and that she needed a more sensible major. So she got a degree in business management and accounting. Three years in the business world and she knew that for her at least, it was no way to live.
She bought her first farm when she was 24 years old. And horses have been an essential part of both her business and personal life ever since. She’s downsized a couple of times as she fought her way through health concerns including a benign tumor on her spine as well as a bout with Lyme Disease. At one time she had 100 acres and 100 horses. Her 12 acres here on South Poes Road and her 7 horses now seem just right!
Cinnamon Ridge is home to a series of VHSA and BHSA horse shows. And, while the shows are fun, Kathi’s real love is teaching. She gives lessons in hunters and hunter equitation. “I make it fun!” she says as she tells me about the games mixed in with the classes. And she must be doing something right as many of her students have gone on to become horse professionals themselves.
But teaching and the horse shows is only part of what Kathi’s doing these days. She boards horses, although only a few at a time. She breeds Welsh ponies. She still judges horse shows. Believe it or not, from Kathi’s perspective this is semi-retirement! Clearly none of those earlier health challenges was going to keep her down for long!
Kathi took some time to show me around Cinnamon Ridge including the show ring, the 4 stall horse barn that includes a wash stall and an office. And, of course, no visit to the farm would be complete without the chance to meet some of the four legged residents. Joey is her 4 year old Welsh Pony stallion. And she expects the first foals from him next year to be something very special. Katie is her personal horse and a real sweetheart! Actually, I enjoyed meeting everyone on the farm down to the smallest residents, the cat and dog!
Kathi is a confessed workaholic who says she’s mended her ways. Having seen everything going on at Cinnamon Ridge, I’m not so sure about that. But I do know it’s going to be a lot of fun having her in the neighborhood!
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Each year around this time a wonderful thing happens in our community. Many people from Amissville come together to help others by way of the community Christmas baskets. I don’t have the exact year this tradition started, but clearly there’s a history of Amissville being a very caring community. The project was started by the Ruritans who were soon joined by the Amissville Methodist Church. Other churches eagerly joined followed by the fire department, the boy and girl scouts and now it’s truly a community endeavor. Everyone has the opportunity to get involved by contributing food in the boxes that will soon appear at various local places of business including the fire department and the post office. We were just reminded of how much we have as we celebrated Thanksgiving. Here’s our chance to share with some of our neighbors who may not be quite as fortunate. The boxes will stay out until the week before Christmas and then will be collected. A group of young people will get together to assemble the boxes of food that will ultimately be delivered to the needy here in Amissville. In a typical year about 25 boxes of food are distributed. Next a group of local women will assemble to put together baskets of fruit. The fruit baskets, along with poinsettias will go to elderly neighbors, shut-ins and anyone they know of who has lost a spouse in the last year. So watch for the boxes and be generous! None of us knows when it might be our turn to need a little help from our neighbors!
This Saturday evening between 5 and 8 p.m., you’ll have the opportunity to continue eating your way through the holiday season! But this time you’ll be able to use the excuse that it’s for a good cause! The Amissville Volunteer Fire Department is once again holding their annual ham and turkey dinner. Whether you go for the country ham, the turkey, the wonderful side dishes or the homemade desserts you are bound to have plenty to eat. While I’m a big fan of the food, I’m also looking forward to running into some of my neighbors that I may not have seen in awhile. It’s a great place to catch up on the latest news. The cost of dinner is $12 for adults, $6 for children 6-12 and free for children 5 and under. Remember that the money goes to help the people who will help all of us when something goes wrong.
Gray Ghost Winery is holding a Holiday Open House on Saturday and Sunday, December 2nd and 3rd. You’ll have the chance to see the world’s largest cork Christmas display with over 50,000 corks! And there’s a 10 foot Christmas tree as well. The event will, of course, feature great food and great Gray Ghost wines. Those of you who have made this an annual event will also have the opportunity to get the 12th in a series of holiday glasses. The cost of this event is $15 per adult and includes the food, wine and collectible glass. The cost is $7 for those under 21.
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Tis the season for family and friends to come visiting! While there’s none of that to report at our house, there seems to be plenty of company coming elsewhere in the neighborhood!
Don and Valerie Jones of Amissville welcomed their daughter Camilla Anne Jones Corn and her husband, John Wing Corn from San Diego. Camilla and John are newlyweds and were back to celebrate an early Christmas on the 21st here in Amissville. They were joined by the Jones’ daughter, Courtney, who currently lives in Midland and her husband Patrick and their children. They all enjoyed a sumptuous buffet and 8 kinds of cookies baked by Valerie. Camilla and John then headed by car down to Murfreesboro, TN to celebrate Christmas again with more family there.
Roy & Myrtle Jenkins were glad to have their son Jeff, his wife, Pat and their two boys home for Christmas. Jeff and his family live in Ohio and make it back here for most major holidays. The Jenkins two other children, Bev and Terry, and their families live nearby and were also on hand to celebrate the holidays. Myrtle even baked her special chocolate cake for the occasion! Rumor has it she may be saving me a piece!
With Christmas already behind us, most of us are already thinking ahead to 2007 and what the next year will bring. I’d love to predict here that it will bring peace on earth, but I don’t see much evidence to support that. So, I thought I’d focus on what the New Year will bring closer to home. I’ve been asking people what changes 2007 will bring in their lives.
Mike Suess initially told me his life was “awfully good just the way it is.” But upon further reflection he decided 2007 will be the year that he’s able to get two cars in his garage. I’m guessing Mike’s not the only one with that on his agenda this year!
Hazel Zinn-Day was excited to tell me that 2007 will make her a great aunt twice! Hazel is the niece of Dorothy Hackley and the cousin of Brad Nicholas who runs Hackley’s store. It’s nice to see their family continue to grow. Maybe one of these babies will be the next generation of those keeping Hackley’s alive and thriving here in Amissville!
Kit Johnston from Madison went out of her way to tell me that 2007 will bring more time for her and her border collie at Mountain View Training Center in Amissville. She raved about the work that Averil and Ken Ring do there. I hope to feature more on this local business in a future column so stay tuned!
There were a few people who were happy to tell me about plans for 2007 anonymously! Here are some of their contributions:
“I’ll be joining the new Weight Watchers group in Rappahannock County.”
“Christmas in 2007 will definitely be less crazy at our house! Enough already!”
“I’m going to get more involved in my community.”
“My kids will do their homework immediately after school if I have to tie them to their chairs!”
As for us here, our 2007 will hopefully bring no snakebites, a great garden, more time for family and friends and a continuing column about Amissville! Happy New Year!
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Today, finally, I'll get around to talking about the numbers for Warren County.
Inventory in Warren County has stayed relatively stable month over month. There were 560 homes listed for sale in February and 567 in March. No significant difference there. Surprisingly enough, Warren County is the one county where there's very little difference year over year in this number. In March of 2007 there were 558 homes listed.
93 new listings came on the market in February. March was up slightly with 98. There's a significant difference in last year's numbers, however. In March of 2007 there were 161 new listings.
We do start to see some differences with contracts, month over month. In February there were 22 new contracts. In March that jumped up to 34. Of course, that's less impressive when you consider that a year ago there were 52 new contracts.
There were 24 closed sales in March, 22 in February and a year ago there were 39.
Overall, the patterns are similar to what we've seen in the other counties.
Prices in Warren County are down almost 17% year over year. It's worse than Fauquier, Culpeper or Rappahannock, but not as bad as Prince William.
Next week I promise an end to all these boring statistics for awhile!
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The Washington Post, in honor of Earth Day, is doing a series of online chats this week related to living "green".
Earlier this week they had a chat about green building and remodeling. It's worth taking a look at, especially if you're thinking about doing any remodeling or are looking for ways to save energy around the house.
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Today I'm going to talk about March's numbers for Rappahannock county.
First of all, a note to those of you who may be new to this blog or to Rappahannock County's real estate market. It is a much, much different market than the surrounding counties. The volumes are very small and so, in some ways, these numbers are less enlightening.
That said, inventory remains static in the county with 71 homes currently for sale. As with surrounding counties, inventory is up from a year ago, although not by a huge percentage. In March of 2007 there were 66 homes listed for sale. There were 11 new listings added this month as opposed to 13 in February.
The big new is that 3 sales closed in March. There have been several months in a row now where that number has been 1. So, percentage-wise, a huge increase! I wouldn't read it as a trend just yet, however! But it is good to note that there were also 2 new contracts written. Those numbers still don't look as good as last year's. In March of 2007 there were 5 closed sales and 3 new contracts written.
Prices continue to drop, even in Rappahannock County. The average sales price a year ago was $460,000. The average sales price now is $411,667. That's a 10% drop in one year. It's lower than the surrounding counties, but still not good news to sellers. A reminder to take average sales prices with a dose of salt for Rappahannock. With volumes so low and prices all over the map, this is a statistic that is often fatally flawed. But, year over year, right now, it looks reasonably accurate.
While new construction is a very small percentage of Rappahannock County real estate, it is noticeable that the new homes inventory has dropped over 50% over the last year. There were 10 a year ago and there are only 4 now.
In Rappahannock County, much of the action is in land sales. There were three of those last month. In general, smaller parcels seem to be moving a little better recently.
The Rappahannock County real estate market remains steady, slow and not significantly different than a year ago. If you're a buyer looking in Rappahannock County things have rarely looked this good!
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We're going to look at Prince William County statistics today.
Prince William is different than the other counties I look at here. Its numbers are better by far in almost every category. If you were only looking at Prince William you could be forgiven for thinking things had definitely turned around.
There are 5757 properties currently for sale. And, inventory is one of the few indicators that show the market headed in the wrong direction. Last month there were 5573 homes for sale. In March a year ago there were only 4527 homes available. 1631 new listings came on the market in March. Last month there were 1595. A year ago in March we saw 1764 new listings.
502 sales closed in March of this year. That's up 49% over last month! And, if we look a year ago, when 418 houses sold, we're up 20%. Again, year over year numbers are the more meaningful statistic.
Even better are the number of new contracts written. 820 new contracts were written in March of 2008 as opposed to 698 in February. That's a 17 percent jump. Again, I don't give that a lot of weight because things should be getting better. It's spring! But the really good news is that last year at this time there were only 508 sales. That's a whopping 61% year over year increase.
Now, here's why! Prices have dropped dramatically. The average sales price in March of this year was $299,586. The average sales price a year ago was $408,574. That's a price drop of 26%. Compare that the Fauquier County average sales price of $318K and you begin to see some of the reason homes aren't selling as well there. Do you want to commute those extra miles with gas prices headed towards $4 a gallon and traffic getting worse?
Also, keep in mind that one of the reasons prices have dropped faster there is the larger number of foreclosures. Banks will do what they need to do to get the houses sold and off their books.
The number of new construction listings is substantially down frm last year. The number of sales of new construction is relatively flat.
More than any other local county, there are signs of hope in Prince William County. Yes, the price drops are steep, but it's getting the market moving. Sellers in other counties should take note.
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OK, I'm annoyed.
Here's my problem. The data on the listings for short sales and bank foreclosures is so often wrong or just missing!
I understand completely that agents are generally making less money on these listings. And, it makes sense that you're not going to spend a lot of money advertising them. But surely some sense of professional pride should demand that you do a complete job of putting the basic listing information in the MLS.
I showed a condo in Culpeper that was listed as "Fee Simple" for form of ownership.
For those of you who don't know, basically condo ownership means that you own from the interior paint, inwards. So, you don't own the walls, roof, yard, etc. That's a big difference from a property where you have maintenance responsibilities for all of the above. It's a pretty big listing mistake.
Now, I'm annoyed because I looked stupid. I searched for condos in that community that were for sale and missed this one because it wasn't listed as a condo. I'm partially mad at myself for not thinking to broaden the search criteria under the assumption it had been listed incorrectly.
And, I hate, hate, hate looking stupid. I really hate being wrong!
There! I feel better now!
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Today I'm going to talk about March's numbers for Fauquier county.
There is very little difference between the numbers in February and March. The total number of properties for sale in February was 730 and at the end of March we showed 734 available properties. That, actually, is good news. Many other counties continue to show substantial increases in that metric. 140 new listings were added this month as opposed to 153 in February. Again, at least it's moving in the right direction. There were 56 contracts written this month and only 44 in February. This is the biggest change in the month over month numbers. The number of houses sold last month rose from 32 in February to 35 in March. Not a huge difference, but an improvement.
Again, I think it's much more telling to look at year over year numbers.
Unlike Culpeper County we have not seen an explosion in inventory over last year, although we are up. That 734 homes for sale number is slightly higher than 723. We see a lot less homes coming on the market 212 last year as opposed to 140 this year. Unfortunately, that's where the good news ends. The number of new contracts written has fallen almost in half, 94 a year ago down to only 56 now. The same story applies to closed sales. In March of 2007 there were 62 closed sales. In March of 2008 only 35.
Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around. The flatter inventory numbers do give me some hope, however.
Prices continue to drop. The average sales price in Fauquier county a year ago was $368,565. The average sales price now is $318,249. That's a 15% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.
We're not seeing an increase in new construction listings. And, new construction sales are almost non-existent. There was 1 last month.
Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. But there is lots of continued good news for the buyers!
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I'm a little late getting March's numbers out to you all. Blame the IRS! But now that taxes are done, it's time to dive into the numbers and take a look. I haven't done individual posts by county for awhile so I'll be doing that over the course of the next few days.
Today it's Culpeper.
The biggest difference between February and March is the number of new listings coming on the market. Last month there were 206 new listings. This month there were only 142 new listings. That would seem to be helpful to the total amount of inventory on the market but there's only a slight difference (February: 819, March: 802). The other notable difference is the number of sales which increased from 31 in February to 42 in March.
Those numbers are interesting, but the more interesting comparison is with what happened a year ago. Remember, real estate is very seasonal. Spring markets are very different from fall or winter markets. The best comparison is almost always year over year changes.
In March of 2007, a year ago, the total inventory was only 643, as opposed to the 802 we've got now. The number of new listing taken were 145, almost identical to the number in March of 2008, 142. The number of new contracts was also very similar, 54 last year, 53 this year. The biggest difference is the number of closed sales. That number was 52 in March of 2007 and 42 in March of 2008.
Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around.
Prices continue to drop. Average sales price in Culpeper county a year ago was $328,013. The average sales price now is $288,017. That's a 12% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.
One statistic that surprised me is that the total number of new construction listings are up. As more and more builders have slowed or stopped building, I expected a reduction in new construction listings. But a year ago there were 224 new construction properties listed and now there are 263.
But perhaps even more surprising is the number of new construction sales. 12 sold in March of 2007 and only 4 in 2008. Considering the terrific deals most builders are providing, that's surprising. If you're ever going to buy new construction, the deals out there right now may make this the time.
Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. Lots of continued good news for the buyers!
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The Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS has a great plan for giving first time home buyers a little additional help and incentive to get out there and buy.
It's proactive, targets the right group and isn't based on hype. That's a great plan!
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I’m not a person who dislikes change. In fact, I seem genetically predisposed to shaking up my life in some fashion about every five years. (Watch out this year everybody!)
But I’ll admit that, like most people, I’m always more comfortable with change I choose than with change forced upon me from the outside. And lately it seems like there is a lot of that going on.
Sometimes it’s the little things. I don’t how it looks from the front porch of your house, but at ours there is a definite shortage of hummingbirds! It seems that every year like clockwork they show up, looking for food. And we had our first couple, right on schedule. But within about a month, we have dozens of the tiny beauties sucking up that nectar about as fast as we can make it! This year we’ve got our two, but no more. Is this true around Amissville? Is this the case around Rappahannock County? If so, what could be causing this? And, most importantly, how do we fix this? I like it just fine the way it worked in the past!
Sometimes it’s more personal. It seems every so often I am inundated with news of friends divorcing. And it once again seems to be that season. I’m not self-centered enough to think any of this is really about me. Change is being thrust upon the family involved, not me. But the truth is there is a ripple of change that goes out from a family that’s breaking apart. It affects many of the people who love them. And there’s a great sadness for a lot of us as we watch and try as best we can to help them through this change.
And then there’s the change in our communities. If you look at surrounding counties you can’t really say that Rappahannock County is experiencing unprecedented growth! And thank goodness for that! And, yet, in my little corner of Amissville it feels like new houses are going up right and left. I’m not saying that they won’t be perfectly nice houses. I’m not saying that the people who eventually move into them won’t be wonderful neighbors. But the truth is that change is being forced upon me again and I’m not pleased about that!
Of course, the biggest change of all, for many of us is the prospect of Dominion’s expanded power lines. As I drive through this gorgeous countryside I begin to imagine what it will look like if Dominion wins this fight. And I’m saddened by what seems like more awful change being forced on a lot of people in these parts.
But there’s plenty of good change around as well! There are new babies, new marriages, new jobs and new homes. There are new neighbors in our communities. And nature is constantly forcing change on all of us. But I never seem to mind when spring gives way to summer. While the storms this year have taken down some old pine trees, I see new seedlings everywhere I look. Some of them will eventually be huge trees. I think this week I’ll look to nature for some lessons on gratefully accepting the changes around me!
I still like the serenity prayer that Al-Anon uses. God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference. Here’s to a wise week for all of us!
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I love watching the faces of the three-year-olds at the carnival. They’re on the slowest ride in the place and you’d think it was the most thrilling thing on earth. They grin from ear to ear! I saw plenty of them this week at the Amissville Fireman’s Carnival. Watching them was entertainment in and of itself!
I still grin like an idiot riding on the Octopus. I’ve loved carnival rides all my life! The more spinning the better! You’d think a grown person would have gotten beyond that. Not me.
Part of that three-year-old grin is the still innate belief that you’re indestructible. Typically that lasts through your teenage years and maybe into your 20s. For me, it lasted a lot longer. I think I still only half believe that the “no one gets out of this alive” quote includes me. Blame it on my parents. Heaven knows they knew plenty of economic fear. But there never seemed to be a fear of trying new things, of embarking on adventures or throwing yourself wholeheartedly into any endeavor. I hope the same is true for the next generation!
So carnival rides were always a thrill. But there came a day when something changed. And while part of it may have been a realization of my own mortality; a bigger part was a realization that I was riding on a machine and they break all the time! It was probably after I bought my first, very old, car, and was responsible for maintaining something mechanical. Now that I’ve also owned houses and, heaven help me, lawnmowers, it’s a wonder I’m not terrified of all mechanical things!
This was really brought home to me about ten years ago when I was on that ride that’s basically a roller coaster in the form of a loop. And at some point they leave you at the top of the loop, suspended upside down. They leave you up there for a really, really long time! This is when you start to notice the rust on the bolts and the creaking of aging machinery. And have I mentioned that the seat belt in my car holds me in more firmly than that single bar across my middle? Why is it that you need two straps across your body, horizontally and diagonally, in a car that’s meant to stay right side up on the ground, but suspended hundreds of feet above the ground, upside down I only needed that dinky little bar?! And where’s my airbag? Suddenly I was sure I was going to die an untimely and terrifying death!
Obviously, I made it down off that ride. And it didn’t cure me of rides, although it did cure me of that particular ride! And as I get a little older and I realize I am here on earth for a finite amount of time, carnival rides once again seem like a good thing. After all, I might as well have fun in the time I’ve got!
If you missed all the fun at this week’s fireman’s carnival, there are more coming up, around Rappahannock county and the larger area. You can live dangerously by eating the cotton candy and rotting your teeth out. You can lose your retirement money at the carnival games. Or you can get on that upside down roller coaster thing! If you’re looking for me I’ll be the grinning idiot on the Octopus!
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I had lunch with a number of business friends the other day and, of course, the conversation turned to the current real estate market and then to the actions currently being contemplated by Congress to fix it.
Every fix seemed to have a down side for someone. And, then one of my friends stated what was staring us all in the fact. "I guess no one said it was going to be fair."
What I'd like to see is everyone staying focused on the larger picture, rather than whether someone else is going to get a "better deal" out of any particular piece of legislation.
If your neighbor got himself in trouble with his mortgage and the government helps him out, one way to look at that is that he got bailed out for his recklessness or stupidity and that you got no reward for being a responsible adult.
But the other way to see this is that if his house goes into foreclosure, your property value declines. And, if several houses in your neighborhood go into foreclosure, your property value declines steeply, crime rises in the neighborhood and a whole host of bad things follow!
While it may be more morally satisfying to watch people get what they deserve, it is also, in this instance, cutting off your nose to spite your face!
Sometimes, looking out for your neighbor turns out to be a good thing for you too!
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John Tuccillo was once the chief economist for NAR, a position currently held by Lawrence Yun. I continue to find John's insights some of the most accurate and enlightening out there.
This post on his web site goes through how we got into this mess and what John sees as the prospects going forward. I think it's one of the best analyses I've seen.
One of the most interesting pieces of this is the third point about how large national home builders began to replace family businesses and how they're driven by different economic realities. It's a piece of this puzzle I hadn't heard before and I think it's right on.
I'll be interested in hearing what you think; what John's gotten right and where your opinion differs.
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