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September 2007
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Some days I hear something that just sends me running to my blog! This has
been one of those days and it's not even noon yet!
I listed a house, probably about a year and a half ago now. I was the second
agent. There was a third after me. The house never did sell and eventually went into foreclosure. I've kept my eye on it
and I recently noticed the bank had gotten a contract on it. The list price at that time was almost $200K less than the
original sales price. It hasn't closed yet so I don't know what the final sales price will end up being.
The truly amazing piece of this story is that the people who are buying the
house still have a house to sell! Their agent had warned them repeatedly against buying a house when they hadn't sold
theirs. But they drove by got very excited, called the listing agent and wrote an offer on the house. Since this is a
foreclosure the offer COULD NOT be contingent on the sale of their home. And there are no other contingencies that would
let them out since, typically, banks won't accept them. The listing agent assured them that he could sell their house
"just like that", no problem!
There are so many bad things happening here you hardly know where to
start!
First of all, let me reiterate again that the listing agent represents the
seller, will do what he can to get the property sold and does not give two figs how that impacts the buyer! "Buyer beware"
doesn't begin to cover it. If you call a listing agent and use them to buy the property without your own representation
you are asking to be taken advantage of!
And, if you fall for an agent telling you they can get your house sold "just
like that" you need to have your head examined! Anyone who tells you that is either delusional or lying! There's just no
way to sugar coat that!
Here's the really amazing part! The reason the house is in foreclosure is
because the previous owner, against the advice of their agent, bought another house without selling the one they already
owned. History appears about to repeat itself!
Some days I'm not sure this downturn can last long enough for people to wise
up!
Just my rather agitated two cents for the day!
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Nationally and on a local level we've seen an increase in real estate teams. Usually a team
starts when one agent has more business than they can handle. And, generally, the first person hired is an administrative
support person. If business continues to grow, the agent moves into handling more listings and fewer buyers and hires a
buyer's specialist for that piece of the business. Some teams eventually grow to have quite a few buyer specialists. And,
in some cases, the original agent assumes a "rainmaker" role and functions more in a business development/management role
while others handle the actual real estate transactions.
From a real estate agent's perspective, perhaps the most attractive thing about the team
concept is the ability to have someone there to cover your business when you want time off. After all, as a one person
company in a 7 day a week business it can be tough to manage those times you need a vacation.
But let's take a minute and talk about what the advantages and disadvantages are for you as
the buyer or seller. Typically, when someone who is part of a team is asking for your business they argument is that they
can better serve you because they're not spread as thin. There's certainly some truth in that.
But it also depends on the caliber of the individuals on a given team. While the agent at the
top of the team is almost certainly a seasoned professional, that's often not true of everyone on the team. In many of the
teams operating locally there seems to be a fair amount of turnover. And while the top agent may be the person who
initially makes contact with you, after that initial appointment you're unlikely to deal directly with them most of the
time.
The other potential down side of a team is that shared responsibilities always has the
potential for creating gaps. Hand offs can mean things fall through the cracks.
I'd argue that one great agent may actually serve your interests better than a team if that
team is inexperienced and doesn't have good systems in place.
If you're talking to someone about their team, make sure you find out more than just about the
the team leader. Who will be working with you on a day to day basis? How much experience do they have? How much access
will you have to the team leader?
The truth is either a team or an individual agent can give you spectacular service. It's up to
you to ask the right questions and make sure you understand what you're getting when you hire anyone, agent or
team.
As always, you need to do your homework!
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In Commonwealth
Magazine, the publication of the Virginia Association of REALTORS,
there is an article this month that discusses the effect of impact
fees on home affordability.
It quotes a study
from the NAHB of saying that each
$1,000 increase in the costs of home ownership reduces the number
of prospective buyers by 217,000.
The implication of
the article is that fees such as higher construction permit fees,
tap fees, proffers required frombuilders and such things as the new
taxes contemplated by some northern VA counties to pay for
infrastructure are a bad thing.
Here's the problem
with that implication. All of these fees, taxes, etc. are, in their
own way, a way to offset the increased infrastructure required as
new homes are built and new residents are added to an area.
Increased population requires additional roads, schools, hospitals,
sewers, etc.
Since all of these
things have costs associated with them, the money has to come from
somewhere. If you're not going to get that money from the builders
making money off selling those homes, or from the new homeowners
who, after all, will be the people utilizing those new services,
who should pay?
The only people
left, it would seem, are the existing homeowners. They would see an
increase in their own taxes to help fund new infrastructure for the
benefit of other people. It's hard to see anyone jumping on that
bandwagon!
No one likes fees or
taxes, regardless of their political persuasion, regardless of
whether they use the services that those fees fund. But you can not
simply continue to add population without infrastructure. And you
can't expect existing home owners to absorb the entire burden.
You're asking for an anti-growth backlash!
"Even modest impact
fees can have a dramatic effect on housing affordability," says
Jerry Howard, the CEO of NAHB.
I'm still waiting
for his suggestion on who, then, should pay for the
infrastructure!
I think we've all
seen what happens when no one pays and construction continues and
the services aren't there for the newcomers. Is everyone enjoying
their commute from this area into northern VA and DC?
So, what do you
think? How do we pay for infrastructure?
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K Hovnanian, one of the largest
homebuilders in the country recently did a nationwide sale event
called "The Deal of the Century". It included steep discounts of up
to 25% or $100,000 in an effort to clear out inventory. In places
like New Jersey and New York those discounts amounted to almost
$150K.
And, it worked! They got contracts
for 1700 homes and have deposits on 400 more. They've almost met
their quarterly sales goals, all in one weekend.
There are a lot of analysts talking
about how this proves there is pent up demand out there. Duh! Who
didn't know that?! Buyers will buy at the right price! Of course
they will!
Here's the problem. How many home
sellers are in a position to reduce the sales price by 25%? And, if
they are in a position to do so, will they? So far, the answer has
clearly been "no". Most of the people I meet with about selling
their homes these days don't have the kind of equity that would
allow them to do that. They don't deal in volume and can't make it
up by selling 100 houses!
There's an old saying in the real
estate industry that "price cures everything." meaning that if I
get the price of your house low enough it doesn't matter what's
wrong with it. And the saying is true. Which is not to say that it
should be your mantra in getting homes sold. In my opinion it
usually makes much more sense to correct anything objectionable in
a home, improve the look of the place and try that first. And, in
this market, maybe you lower the price some AND do that
work.
I can lower the price of your home
to $1000 and I guarantee I will sell it and sell it quickly! That
doesn't mean it's the best strategy.
But, heck, if you can discount your
home 25% I absolutely believe it will get your home sold. I'm not
holding my breath, though. I suspect the typical homeowner isn't
going that low until the rush of foreclosures forces his or her
hand!
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Industry
associations such as the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) or
the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) frequently put out
public statements that appear to be nothing more than self-serving
statements full of positive spin about what a great time this is to
buy a house. And, let's be honest, that's exactly what a lot of
them are. They have every reason to try and persuade people,
especially now, that it's a great time to buy.
And, many real
estate agents have been heard making similarly upbeat statements. I
know that many of you think it's the same sort of self-serving
claptrap!
Anybody who has been
reading this blog for any length of time knows that I'm certainly
no industry apologist. But I do believe that my fellow agents and I
are often falsely maligned by such accusations.
Yes, there are
agents who would say anything to get someone to buy a home. But I
still maintain that they're in a minority.
Real estate agents,
like other self-employed individuals, are by nature, optimists.
Trust me, no one would go into this type of career, and take the
kind of financial risks we take unless they were optimistic by
nature. Real estate agents are, by nature, people who will
automatically see the glass as half full. I personally, veer
towards a three-quarters full view on a regular basis. Extreme
optimism helps a lot in markets like this! It keeps people in this
business who, if they had any sense at all, would go get a job that
pays better, has actual benefits and more regular hours!
And, any savvy
business person learns early on it never does your business any
good to say things are anything but "great". Announcing to the
world that your business is suffering is unlikely to attract more
business! And, besides, any decent optimist knows things are
turning around tomorrow!
So, give that
absurdly optimistic real estate agent a little slack. If you're a
seller, isn't it a little reassuring to hear a little optimism
when there's so much gloom about the market everywhere you
turn?
I've got to go take
my happy pills now!
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I do know that the correct phrasing
for yesterday's rate cuts is "50 basis points" but let's face it,
all us lay people are thinking about it as half a percentage
point!
Whatever you want to call it, it's
good news for buyers and sellers!
Let me explain that this is NOT a
half percentage point cut in mortgage interest rates. While the Fed
rate does impact mortgage interest rates it's not a direct one to
one correlation. And, some of the Fed rate cut has been gradually
factored in already.
That said, this will put downwards
pressure on mortgage interest rates. Today's release of CPI numbers
showing almost no inflationary pressure will help that as
well.
So...now what do you do? If you're a
potential buyer it's a great time to think about buying a house.
You probably qualify for a little more than you did a week or two
ago. There are unlikely to be much in the way of additional rate
cuts in my opinion. If you're even semi serious it's time to talk
to a mortgage lender and find out what you can afford to buy. Then
go looking! But read my advice to sellers as well!
Sellers, good news at last!
But...don't blow this! This is not the time to raise your price. In
fact, I'd argue just the opposite is true. You're likely to get a
brief uptick in buyers. Lower the price now and get the place sold.
This new, small surge of buyers isn't likely to last long and the
spring market is a very long time away! I believe pricing pressure
will continue to push home prices down. The bulk of foreclosures
haven't begun to hit the market here locally yet. And, as always,
make sure your home is in tip top showing condition and is easy to
show! Always!
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Let's face it,
things are not looking rosy in the real estate industry at the
moment. If you're selling I'm not telling you anything you didn't
already know! The August numbers showing another jump in inventory
only reinforce the story.
There is no one
place to point the finger of blame on how we got here. And, in the
end, does it matter right now? It's time to figure out how to fix
this mess!
While there have
been lots of ideas floating around in the political realm and in
the economic world of the Fed, I'd like to talk a little about what
real estate agents can do to help.
I see plenty of
seminars for first time home buyers, working on educating them and
helping them buy their first house. There's nothing wrong with
that, but I think a bigger area of need right now is education for
the homeowner in trouble.
I'd like to see us
offering classes, in partnership with mortgage companies and
settlement companies, walking homeowners who have already missed
payments or those with mortgages about to adjust, through their
options. The vast majority of homeowners don't understand all the
options available to them and the pluses and minuses associated
with each one. We need to talk about short sales, deed in lieu of
foreclosure and foreclosure. People need to know what to
expect with each step of the process.
We are in a unique
position to help here. I realize that this is a for profit
business. And I know this sounds like a seminar that's unlikely to
produce much in the way of income. But I think we'd do our
profession a service. I also think you'd build long-term income
potential by helping people in a tight spot. Most of those people
will eventually buy another house. If you're there when they need
you, many of them will remember that.
When times are tough
we can show our character and step up and do the right thing. It's
good for everyone! And it can't hurt the reputation of real estate
agents either!
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For those of you who wanted to see
August numbers for Rappahannock and Prince William
Counties:
Rappahannock
|
MONTH
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ACTIVE
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NEW
LISTINGS
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NEW
CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
42
|
10
|
3
|
4
|
|
03/06
|
49
|
16
|
7
|
3
|
|
04/06
|
58
|
17
|
6
|
5
|
|
05/06
|
68
|
21
|
5
|
7
|
|
06/06
|
68
|
16
|
7
|
2
|
|
07/06
|
70
|
12
|
2
|
5
|
|
08/06
|
74
|
19
|
3
|
3
|
|
09/06
|
78
|
19
|
8
|
4
|
|
10/06
|
84
|
25
|
5
|
5
|
|
11/06
|
81
|
8
|
6
|
7
|
|
12/06
|
75
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
|
01/07
|
64
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
|
02/07
|
64
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
|
03/07
|
66
|
10
|
3
|
5
|
|
04/07
|
81
|
22
|
3
|
3
|
|
05/07
|
80
|
10
|
2
|
2
|
|
06/07
|
79
|
16
|
7
|
4
|
|
07/07
|
83
|
14
|
0
|
3
|
|
08/07
|
87
|
12
|
4
|
2
|
Prince William
|
MONTH
|
ACTIVE
|
NEW
LISTINGS
|
NEW
CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
3354
|
1443
|
637
|
513
|
|
03/06
|
4015
|
2078
|
780
|
699
|
|
04/06
|
4686
|
2000
|
681
|
608
|
|
05/06
|
5227
|
2042
|
709
|
661
|
|
06/06
|
5481
|
1884
|
647
|
732
|
|
07/06
|
5559
|
1616
|
537
|
567
|
|
08/06
|
5348
|
1410
|
529
|
530
|
|
09/06
|
5061
|
1267
|
446
|
470
|
|
10/06
|
4770
|
1222
|
479
|
434
|
|
11/06
|
4248
|
959
|
386
|
411
|
|
12/06
|
3695
|
710
|
463
|
457
|
|
01/07
|
3739
|
1336
|
474
|
391
|
|
02/07
|
3928
|
1172
|
488
|
360
|
|
03/07
|
4527
|
1764
|
508
|
418
|
|
04/07
|
5073
|
1668
|
471
|
427
|
|
05/07
|
5431
|
1698
|
509
|
432
|
|
06/07
|
5703
|
1539
|
454
|
456
|
|
07/07
|
Fauquier County Market Conditions, Culpeper County Market Conditions
Can I just start by saying "ugh"?
I've heard lots of comments over the last couple of weeks (from local real
estate agents) about market improvements. This is all anecdotal evidence. And to be perfectly honest, I've seen a slight
pick up in traffic on my listings as well.
But clearly, based on August numbers, they're only looking right now! The
exception is Culpeper County where there's a clear uptick in contracts written.
The really bad news here is that inventory climbed in every single county I
look at. Since we were already at all time highs, this is not a hopeful sign. Some of these are clearly foreclosures. And
we are probably only on the leading edge of that wave right now.
I also think we're starting to see some sellers who while they might not NEED
to sell right now, know they will be selling within a year and have decided there's not likely to be a better time between
now and then. And the likelihood is that they're right.
For those of you who want to actually see the numbers, here is the chart,
including history, for Culpeper:
|
MONTH
|
ACTIVE
|
NEW LISTINGS
|
NEW CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
465
|
133
|
65
|
49
|
|
03/06
|
556
|
204
|
74
|
58
|
|
04/06
|
592
|
177
|
70
|
67
|
|
05/06
|
689
|
226
|
72
|
65
|
|
06/06
|
738
|
183
|
53
|
64
|
|
07/06
|
759
|
140
|
48
|
43
|
|
08/06
|
751
|
151
|
43
|
40
|
|
09/06
|
723
|
138
|
64
|
44
|
|
10/06
|
705
|
121
|
32
|
44
|
|
11/06
|
625
|
81
|
39
|
38
|
|
12/06
|
612
|
80
|
30
|
38
|
|
01/07
|
640
|
165
|
41
|
19
|
|
02/07
|
623
|
91
|
48
|
36
|
|
03/07
|
643
|
145
|
54
|
52
|
|
04/07
|
740
|
211
|
53
|
32
|
|
05/07
|
788
|
165
|
37
|
40
|
|
06/07
|
784
|
113
|
47
|
31
|
|
07/07
|
803
|
145
|
39
|
40
|
|
08/07
|
814
|
154
|
50
|
32
|
Here is the Fauquier chart
|
MONTH
|
ACTIVE
|
NEW LISTINGS
|
NEW CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
489
|
149
|
64
|
54
|
|
03/06
|
610
|
296
|
91
|
61
|
|
04/06
|
692
|
254
|
94
|
77
|
|
05/06
|
732
|
237
|
107
|
87
|
|
06/06
|
781
|
218
|
78
|
90
|
|
07/06
|
816
|
190
|
62
|
54
|
|
08/06
|
823
|
206
|
79
|
79
|
|
09/06
|
794
|
162
|
62
|
61
|
|
10/06
|
821
|
197
|
51
|
|
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The news media in
general is saturated with speculation about whether the Fed will
raise interest rates at their next meeting on September 18th. I
might as well join in and have some fun!
A few weeks ago I'd
have been among the minority, saying there would be no Fed rate cut
on September 18th and probably not this year. But that's before the
mortgage mess got even worse, the jobs report was abysmal and the
stock market looked ready to jump off a bridge!
The truth is the Fed
doesn't want to cut rates. They remain more worried about inflation
than about the housing market or the current employment situation.
Their strong preference would be to leave the Fed Funds rate alone
and rely on help elsewhere to help with specific economic trouble
spots.
But I believe that
things have gotten so ugly that there's just too much pressure. I
believe the Fed will bow to that pressure and cut interest rates a
quarter point. There's still some question in my mind whether
they'll do it on September 18th or try to hold out until the next
meeting. But unless there's some significant good news very soon I
suspect that the cut is probably coming sooner rather than
later.
The really
interesting question is what will that do for all of us. Well, it
will probably get some buyers who were sitting on the fence out the
door and looking at homes. I believe we're already seeing some of
that as there's evidence of increased traffic over the last couple
of weeks. And, some of those people out looking will buy. I believe
that 30-60 days from now you're going to see a little bit of a bump
in sales.
I'm not yet
convinced that this will completely turn things around and that
recovery is just around the corner. There is still a tremendous
back log of inventory out there and somebody has to clear it.
Buyers may be out shopping but if sellers don't start dropping
prices I think the buyers will continue to sit and wait. It may be
a game of chicken but buyers really do have an advantage in this
version!
OK, your turn to
have some fun. What does your crystal ball show?
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Sellers finally got some good news
locally this week. Centex announced that they are cancelling plans
to build Freedom Place in Bealeton. It was going to be a 350 unit
development and it DEFINITELY was NOT needed!
Listening to some of the comments
from some county officials you'd think someone had made off with
the family silver! This is another example of county officials
paying more attention to big builders and developers than to their
own local taxpayers. They should
have been sending big bouquets of flowers to Centex along with a
thank you note!
The truth is that when the housing
market turns around the big builders and developers will be back
knocking on the county's door, wanting to do business. But right
now, local builders can easily fill the demand for new
construction, assuming there's still a gap after you consider all
the unsold new construction still sitting here! And local
homeowners who are trying to sell their homes in a miserably soft
market definitely don't need more competition from
builders!
The announcement by Centex this week
is a huge help for homeowners in both Fauquier and Culpeper
counties. It protects the value of your home. Considering that
we're still likely facing oodles of foreclosures hitting the market
in the next year, this is very, very welcome news. You might want
to get out those thank you notes and start writing!
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There was a list of resources in Sunday's Washington Post aimed at homeowners who are facing a problem paying their
mortgage. In case you missed it and need the information I wanted
to share it with you here. This is certainly not an exhaustive
list. If you know of other good resources please respond and add
them! And if you don't need them today, say a little "thank you"
prayer and tuck them away! None of us knows when it might be our
turn!
Tips on what
to do when worried about foreclosure:
Some groups
that can provide housing or information:
If you have any questions on any of
these organizations or would like more personal guidance on your
situation, please don't hestitate to call or e-mail. I'm here to
help!
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I believe both real estate agents
and consumers are still trying to figure out how technology is
changing the way homes are bought and sold. I'm trying to stay on
the leading edge of this stuff. But sometimes the most obvious
things still surprise me and they definitely surprise my clients.
Let's face it, they have better things to do with their days than
to think about real estate every waking moment!
A new one came up for clients this
week. I'm talking to a lot more families who have already listed
their house with someone else and are now looking for a new real
estate agent. One of the things I always look at are the
photographs of the house. It continues to astonish me how truly
awful some of them are.
We are used to thinking that the
first impression that clients get is when they drive up to your
house and walk through the front door. We've been talking for years
about curb appeal. The fact is, first impressions are now made on
the web. And by and large, they're the only chance
you have to impress.
When there are oodles and oodles of
houses to look at, a buyer has to figure out how to narrow down
their search. Once you get through the obvious criteria such as
style of house, number of bedrooms, number of baths, size of lot,
garage, basement, you get to the photographs pretty
quickly.
The thing about the photographs is
that what makes a buyer steer away from you house may have nothing
to do with the house itself. If the house looks like a mess,
somewhere in the back of their mind is the idea that if they lived
in that house they would be more likely to be messy. If the house
looks crowded and/or cluttered they'll believe it will look the
same when they live there. It doesn't have to be the truth. They
may have one tenth the furniture you have. But the impression has
been formed and it's enough to make them go on to the next
house.
It used to be that you ran around
making the house look terrific when you knew someone was coming to
look at it that day. Now, you'd better make sure it looks terrific
on those photos that will be on the internet.
"You never get a second chance to
make a first impression" has never been more true! If that first,
photographic, impression of your home on the internet doesn't wow
them, they're never coming for a second look!
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President Bush gave
a speech last week on the mortgage mess. In case you missed it,
here are the main points:
1. The FHA rules
will be modified to allow them to offer loans to more of the
families who need to refinance out of their current Adjustable Rate
Mortgages (ARMS).
2. The President
will sign the bill currently in Congress to eliminate federal
income tax on debt forgiveness from mortgage companies.
3. The government
will launch a foreclosure avoidance initiative aimed at allowing
families in troubles to stay in their homes and find ways to
refinance.
4. New regulations
will be issues requiring mortgage brokers to fully disclose their
fees and closing costs.
5. Those in the
mortgage industry who have engaged in wrong doing are being
investigated and will face consequences for their
actions.
To all those of you
who are struggling, worrying and praying for some help, you didn't
get much here.
Let me explain what
I mean by that. The main provision here is the first point saying
the FHA will be modernized to enable them to help more homeowners
refinance. It's a nice first step, but it will help only a tiny
percentage of homeowners, at least in our area.
Let's say you bought
your home two years ago with zero down for $350,000 and it's
now worth only $300,000 and on top of that your lender has
pre-payment penalties that must be paid if you
refinanced. In this fairly common scenario the proposed
FHA program is likely to be useless to you. The big problem
here is that you have no equity in your home. In fact, you actually
have negative equity in your home.
The new FHA-Secure
program requires that you have at least 3 percent equity in your
home. Unfortunately that means only a tiny fraction of homeowners
will qualify. And, if they do qualify they already probably had
other refinancing options.
The second point is
important and needs to get done and I've written about that
proposal in this blog. But all the President did here was say he'd
sign the bill when and if it gets to him. Again, not terribly
helpful in the short term.
The third option
appears to primarily involve counseling. It's a good idea but,
again, unlikely to have large scale impacts. I've yet to see the
details on this one and I hope that when I do I'm proven
wrong.
Items four and five
clearly are of no help!
I do wish the
President had said a little more and asked for a little help from
the American people. I wish he'd added something like
this:
"My fellow Americans
this is a time when we can all work together to help solve the
problems before us. Our economy needs to stay strong because we've
got important work to do, here at home and elsewhere in the world.
In order to do that I'm announcing the following
initiatives:
1. In all the
reports about the mortgage problems some buyers may not have
noticed that it's a great time to buy a home. Interest rates are
near historic lows and prices are very attractive. I'm encouraging
home buyers who have been sitting on the side lines to go ahead and
buy that house. You'll be helping your fellow Americans and your
country. I commit that my administration will do its part to
ensure that you're making a good economic decision by working to
keep the housing market and the credit markets strong.
2. Mortgage
companies who deliberately defrauded borrowers will pay large fines
and those fines will be used to help those they defrauded. The
executives in charge of those companies will be held accountable as
well.
3. Because real
estate is a local issue I'm asking that each state governor appoint
a task force to determine what other steps can be taken to assist
homeowners who are in danger of foreclosure. The federal government
is standing by to assist where it makes sense."
4. While the federal
and state governments are looking for ways to help families in
danger of losing their homes, let there be no doubt that this offer
is not for those who were only looking to make a quick buck. The
home in question must be the primary residence, not an investment
property.
I believe that these
additional items would have made a serious difference. One of our
biggest current problems is a huge backlog of inventory. The
housing market can not recover as long as that's true. And the
foreclosure problem isn't going away until the overall market
conditions improve. By helping reassure potential buyers that the
government is committed to keeping a close eye on the market and
avoiding a complete melt down the mind set could start to change.
It's the kind of leadership we need right now!
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