Archives
March 2007
|
I’ve done the numbers on the last year’s inventory for Fauquier, Culpeper and Rappahannock Counties. Now, for those of you “easterners” here are the numbers for Prince William County.
This data covers the months from February, 2006 through February 2007. The data is taken from our MLS system and includes properties residential properties listed between $100,000 and $5,000,000.
The numbers I’ve chosen to look at are the total number of active listings at the end of that month, new listings that went on the market that month, properties newly under contract that month, and properties that went to settlement that month.
|
MONTH
|
ACTIVE
|
NEW LISTINGS
|
NEW CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
3354
|
1443
|
637
|
513
|
|
03/06
|
4015
|
2078
|
780
|
699
|
|
04/06
|
4686
|
2000
|
681
|
608
|
|
05/06
|
5227
|
2042
|
709
|
661
|
|
06/06
|
5481
|
1884
|
647
|
732
|
|
07/06
|
5559
|
1616
|
537
|
567
|
|
08/06
|
5348
|
1410
|
529
|
530
|
|
09/06
|
5061
|
1267
|
446
|
470
|
|
10/06
|
4770
|
1222
|
479
|
434
|
|
11/06
|
4248
|
959
|
386
|
411
|
|
12/06
|
3695
|
710
|
463
|
457
|
|
01/07
|
3739
|
1336
|
474
|
391
|
|
02/07
|
3928
|
1172
|
488
|
360
|
The first thing you’ll notice is that volume is much, much larger in Prince William than in the other counties we’ve looked at. But once you get past that, the patterns stay the same with inventory peaking last summer. The numbers are a little different in Prince William in that the number of sales still seems to be declining. We’ll have to watch for a few more months to see where bottom is for this market.
The great, unchanging truth throughout all the counties is that it’s a buyer’s market. If you’ve been watching some of the numbers this week on home sales you’ve seen that reinforced at a national level. If you’re a seller, cheer up! It could be worse! I just read that in Miami, FL if you put a condo on the market to sell right now you should expect it to take three years to sell! Try planning your life around that!
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
|
|
In our continuing, occasional series on interviewing a realtor, I'm going to talk this time about average sales price as a percentage of list price.
First of all, let's work on some definitions. Let's say you list your home for $400,000. If it sells for $400,000 you've sold it for 100% of the list price. If you sell it for $390,000 you've sold it for 97.5% of it's list price.
If an agent averages those numbers over all the transactions they do, you get average sales price as a percentage of list. It's a number I would ask an agent for when I was interviewing them.
To give you a frame of reference, during the hot sellers market a couple of years ago, it was not at all unusual to have an agent have an average that was over 100%. Obviously, that's not true these days! For February, 2007, the last month for which numbers are available, the average for Fauquier County was 92.76% and for Culpeper County 94.22%.
Ideally, of course, you want an agent whose numbers beat the averages! And you definitely want an agent who doesn't look like a deer in the headlights when you ask them about this. They may not know the exact market numbers for last month for a particular county. But they should certainly know generally where the numbers have been. And they should definitely be able to tell you what their own numbers look like.
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
|
|
If it's been a couple of days between blog posts you'll all have to forgive me. I changed broker's last week and that generates a fair amount of work for a few days. That and an ugly cold have kept me from sharing my thoughts with you all.
It's not at all an uncommon thing for an agent to change brokers. But the public doesn't know much about that so I thought it warranted at least a few paragraphs here.
First of all, there are probably as many reasons agents switch as there are agents! There are personality conflicts as in any business. There have been a lot of agents who have switched in the last year or two because the market slowed and the grass always looks greener some place else. Different brokers and companies have different compensation plans and over the course of a real estate career what was once advantageous may become less so. And it's not just compensation, the amount and level of training varies widely as well. Different companies have different strengths and weaknesses and so agents change to take advantage of systems or processes that can benefit themselves and/or their clients.
And since nothing is ever quite that simple, it's often several of the above! That's certainly the case with me. Human nature seems to resist change and I did find it hard to leave old friends and a comfortable setting. But there is also something in human nature that thrives on change once we get past that initial resistance and I'm enjoying the renewed energy (once this blasted cold is gone!) that change can bring!
There is even more administrative garbage to get through to get everything changed than I had guessed. And my assistant, Carolyn, is once again proving to be a lifesaver!
So, I'm getting back to business as usual. My contact information remains largely unchanged and most of you won't even notice the switch!
As consumers, how much do you notice or care which brokerage an agent affiliates with? As an agent, if you've done this before, how painful or painless wa the transition?
|
|
Comments (5) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
|
|
The numbers junkies among you have asked me to provide Rappahannock numbers as well. Since that was already part of the plan, I’m happy to oblige! If you haven’t seen a county that you’re interested in yet, just let me know!
This data covers the months from February, 2006 through February 2007 for real estate transactions in Rappahannock County Virginia. The data is taken from our MLS system and includes properties residential properties listed between $100,000 and $5,000,000.
The numbers I’ve chosen to look at are the total number of active listings at the end of that month, new listings that went on the market that month, properties newly under contract that month, and properties that went to settlement that month.
|
MONTH
|
ACTIVE
|
NEW LISTINGS
|
NEW CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
42
|
10
|
3
|
4
|
|
03/06
|
49
|
16
|
7
|
3
|
|
04/06
|
58
|
17
|
6
|
5
|
|
05/06
|
68
|
21
|
5
|
7
|
|
06/06
|
68
|
16
|
7
|
2
|
|
07/06
|
70
|
12
|
2
|
5
|
|
08/06
|
74
|
19
|
3
|
3
|
|
09/06
|
78
|
19
|
8
|
4
|
|
10/06
|
84
|
25
|
5
|
5
|
|
11/06
|
81
|
8
|
6
|
7
|
|
12/06
|
75
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
|
01/07
|
64
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
|
02/07
|
64
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
If you’ve looked at the Fauquier and Culpeper numbers you’ll definitely notice a big difference here. The sold numbers stay in a very small range. Rappahannock County is definitely less volatile than surrounding counties. There are fewer people here, less inventory, fewer transactions and overall, just a quieter, steadier market. But even here you do see the inventory double and then begin to subside over the course of this year.
In the remainder of 2007 you should expect a continued steady course in Rappahannock. I expect to continue to see inventory grow over the next several months, but I’m hopeful that we won’t see the heights of late 2006 again. Whatever happens, I’ll be keeping an eye on it and will provide details and analysis here.
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
|
|
I had a home inspection today on a new construction property that my clients are purchasing. And I was reminded of what a good idea to have an independent home inspector do an inspection, even on new construction. It's amazing to me how many people don't get this done.
This is not a question of whether or not you trust the builder. First of all, we're all human and fallible! This is a huge purchase and it's just good sense to have another, objective and experienced, pair of eyes take a look.
The best home inspectors will teach you things about your home that the builder will not. It's not that the builder doesn't want you to know these things. But they have homes to build and sell and it can take time to explain why your new furnace could use some additional metallic tape to keep potentially combustible gases from your water heater from being drawn in! A good home inspector spots these little things and will talk you through what you should be doing to protect yourself and your home.
A good inspector will know what is code in a particular jurisdiction and can catch things that the builder missed. The buyer is probably not an expert on local building codes and shouldn't be expected to be. Sometimes your realtor may know a lot about local codes as well. But a home inspector is likely to catch the nuances that can make a difference to you now and in the future. They can catch things that could prevent you from getting your occupancy permit in the time frames needed for settlement. And they can catch items that could come back to bite you when you go to resell the property in a few years.
A builder will not recommend a home inspector. They often view them as nuisance. But a smart buyer will always get a home inspection, even on new construction!
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
|
|
Earlier in the week I provided some numbers to give you an idea of what the inventory picture has looked like homes for sale in Fauquier County over the last year. Here is the same information for Culpeper County.
This data covers the months from February, 2006 through February 2007. The data is taken from our MLS system and includes properties residential properties listed between $100,000 and $5,000,000.
The numbers I’ve chosen to look at are the total number of active listings at the end of that month, new listings that went on the market that month, properties newly under contract that month, and properties that went to settlement that month.
|
MONTH
|
ACTIVE
|
NEW LISTINGS
|
NEW CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
465
|
133
|
65
|
49
|
|
03/06
|
556
|
204
|
74
|
58
|
|
04/06
|
592
|
177
|
70
|
67
|
|
05/06
|
689
|
226
|
72
|
65
|
|
06/06
|
738
|
183
|
53
|
64
|
|
07/06
|
759
|
140
|
48
|
43
|
|
08/06
|
751
|
151
|
43
|
40
|
|
09/06
|
723
|
138
|
64
|
44
|
|
10/06
|
705
|
121
|
32
|
44
|
|
11/06
|
625
|
81
|
39
|
38
|
|
12/06
|
612
|
80
|
30
|
38
|
|
01/07
|
640
|
165
|
41
|
19
|
|
02/07
|
623
|
91
|
48
|
36
|
The good news is that inventory is definitely down from it’s peak last summer. The bad news is that we’re in the period of the year where inventory typically increases. But, buyers also come out in larger numbers this time of year. So it’s possible to read this through rose colored glasses or to become completely pessimistic looking at these numbers.
As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle! No doubt we’re still in a great buyer’s market. But there’s reason to believe this summer will be better than last. Interest rates are actually down again and there are a lot of really amazing deals. This may draw more buyers into the market than anyone is anticipating!
Watch this space to see what happens!
|
|
Comments (2) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
|
|
I was out with clients yesterday who are looking for just the right piece of land to build their next home. They've had no luck looking at what's currently listed on the market. So they asked me yesterday if I ever contacted owners and asked them if they were interested in selling. I thought that was a great topic for a blog post here!
The answer is that I have definitely contacted owners to ask if they were willing to sell. It doesn't happen often, only a few times over my years in real estate. And it's not been wildly successful. But I have uncovered people who wanted to sell who had not yet put their homes on the market and so it is worth a shot.
I will generally send letters to the owners involved. Sometimes it's a subdivision where someone really wants to live and either nothing is currently for sale, or the right house isn't for sale. Sometimes, as with this couple, it's absentee owners of parcels of land. It's important in the letter to be as specific as I can since there's a fair amount of skepticism in the world these days when a letter arrives out of the blue asking about selling your property!
The other thing to keep in mind is that in these instances the potential buyer gives up some leverage. If someone comes to you to buy your specific property and there's already tons of property actually available for sale, odds are you can be pretty firm about price. The buyers want it very badly and the sellers clearly aren't at all pressured to sell. While it may get you the perfect property, it will almost never get you a great deal on it!
Have any of you used this strategy to buy? Have any of you sold a property when approached by a buyer or their agent? I'd love to hear your stories!
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
|
|
I believe that numbers tell stories. And, going into the spring market, with everyone desperately trying to determine where the local market is headed, my instinct is to turn to the numbers.
It helps me determine whether my current experiences are unique or reflective of the market overall. And it helps me paint a truer picture of the market for my sellers as we look at realistic pricing.
So, here is a small piece of the real estate puzzle for Fauquier County, Virginia for the months from February, 2006 through February 2007. The data is taken from our MLS system and includes properties residential properties listed between $100,000 and $5,000,000.
The numbers I’ve chosen to look at are the total number of active listings at the end of that month, new listings that went on the market that month, properties newly under contract that month, and properties that went to settlement that month.
|
MONTH
|
ACTIVE
|
NEW LISTINGS
|
NEW CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
|
|
02/06
|
489
|
149
|
64
|
54
|
|
03/06
|
610
|
296
|
91
|
61
|
|
04/06
|
692
|
254
|
94
|
77
|
|
05/06
|
732
|
237
|
107
|
87
|
|
06/06
|
781
|
218
|
78
|
90
|
|
07/06
|
816
|
| | |
