Too Little, Too Late for Fauquier?

Fauquier County is working to get funds from the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. The latest information says that they're seeking a grant of $2 million with which to purchase foreclosed homes. They also acknowledge that they're more likely to get only $1 million.

There are certainly still a fair number of foreclosed homes around. Out of the 75 homes sold in Fauquier last month, 28 of them were foreclosures. Out of those 28, 15 would fall into the price range (130K to 250K) that the county is looking at.

But the number of foreclosures in the lower price ranges is shrinking and they are often snapped up fast, sometimes these days, even with multiple offers. It will be interesting to see if a government entity can be nimble enough to compete with the first time buyers who are snapping these up.

The other complication here is the appraisal requirement for the program. In order to qualify for the program the Fauquier can not pay more than 85% of the appraised value of the home. Since the typical homebuyer can get a mortgage as long as the appraisal is 100% or more of the purchase price the bank will certainly find the county's offer more risky. If I'm the asset manager for the bank and I had multiple offers, I'd almost never choose the county offer.

I say all this not to trash the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. It was a good idea. The problem has been in the execution.

While in October 2008 the county was shown as having 228 bank owned properties., the MLS currently lists only 29 for sale in Fauquier County.

In the time it took to roll the program out and talk the counties into participating and then have them put together packages, the worst of the crisis has passed.

The program will still do some good if they're able to actually buy homes. It will help working families afford a home of their own in what is still a relatively high cost living area.

But no one should believe that this program will have any impact on stabilizing market conditions in any neighborhood. Time and the market appear to have already taken care of that.

How it Should Work

Short sales are a pain! You're going to hear that from any real estate agent you talk to, or more likely, even stronger language.

The relationship between banks and real estate agents on short sales has gotten to the point where you could call it adversarial. And, it shouldn't be that way. We should be working together towards a common goal, finding a deal that works for everyone and getting it closed before the house goes into foreclosure.

The thing is, I don't think it needed to be this way. Both banks and real estate agents should have sat down at the beginning of this wave of short sales and worked out some things. Here are some ways the outcomes and the working relationships could have been improved.

• Each bank should have a package of it's procedures in working with real estate agents and owners on short sales.
• Banks should have a link on their main web site that provides real estate agents with everything they need to process a short sale.
• Lending institutions and real estate companies and/or associations should have set up joint seminars where agents and lenders could meet and develop working relationships.
• Banks should have easy access on their web sites to information for their customers who are contemplating going through the short sale process.

No one item here would have completely fixed the problems with the current system. But any and all of them would have helped tremendously. And, this list is just a starting point. There are lots more possibilities.

This is a broken system. A little planning up front might have saved us all a lot of grief!

The Great Bank Conspiracy?

Fellow agent and blogger Danilo Bogdanovic just wrote a post on Agent Genius suggesting that perhaps the lack of inventory is actually a plot by the banks to all withhold their foreclosure inventory and thus drive up prices.

Danilo uses the word "Collusion". If you're a buyer right now you may find this persuasive. But I'm not convinced it's all an evil plot.

If the banks are fans of "Buy Low, Sell High" it makes sense for them to hold on to assets until prices improve. And, as inventory has gotten scarce prices are starting to improve.

A banker friend has also suggested that any publicly traded company would logically spread out losses so that they don't all show up on the balance sheet in the same quarter.

And, given what I've seen dealing up close and personal with banks on short sales and foreclosures for a couple of years now, I doubt most of them are capable of the planning that would be necessary for this level of collusion!

If you're a homeowner you're probably thinking this sounds like the best idea ever. If the banks put one or two foreclosures up for sale each year, your home might actually begin to appreciate again!

Either way, I suspect we're giving the banks way too much credit in thinking collusion is responsible for what we're seeing right now.

I66 Producing Energy

I found this tidbit today in EcoTech Daily:

Sainsbury’s Store is the first in Europe to use a green energy system where customers can create 30kWh an hour by driving over plates in the parking lot. The energy that gets made by the cars will be used to power their checkout stands. Anyone else think we should have these on every road in the world?

I immediately had a vision of all the cars on I66 every day and wondered how much power we could produce if these plates were part of the roadway. Cool!

May Numbers

May proved to be mostly a month where the numbers went sideways.

Whether you're looking at Culpeper, Fauquier, Prince William or Rappahannock County, there are no dramatic changes.

There were some subtle signals that things have slowed down a tad in Culpeper county. Both new contracts and sales actually fell last month.

In Fauquier county inventory actually rose, ever so slightly (3 houses). But sales jumped month over month from 54 to 70, well above last year's pace at this time.

Prince William continued to shed inventory with only 3.7 months of inventory now available. I continue to see buyers discouraged with what they're finding available under $400K in Prince William.

Rappahannock County had the biggest jump in sales with 7 units selling last month. This being Rappahannock and the universe being so small, it appears to be a big jump (SALES TRIPLED!). But inventory is exactly where it was a month ago and we're unlikely to see any sudden movements in this quiet corner of the market.

Overall, signs would still seem to indicate we're at or very close to a bottom. Prince William still looks to be on its way back up with price appreciation. And, with a tiny amount of inventory available, prices there will likely continue to rise throughout the summer months.

Zero Down Payment

The on again, off again, opportunity to use the $8000 tax credit as a down payment is back on again. At least if you get a VHDA loan.

The guidelines for the program are here. The program utilizes a second mortgage to make this happen. That second mortgage requires no mortgage payments for the first year and has a 0% interest rate during that year. You have multiple options on how to deal with the second mortgage after that first year.

It's worth taking a look at this program if the only thing keeping you from owning a home is coming up with a down payment.

If you need help finding a VHDA lender, let me know. I'd be happy to help!

No Money for Us

Governor Kaine announced the Virginia recipients of the Neighborhood Stabilization fund grants yesterday. Unfortunately, neither Fauquier or Culpeper made the cut. Incredibly, Prince William county doesn't appear to have gotten a dime!

This would have had a small impact, but every little bit helps.

There was a little money given to Shenandoah, Frederick and Warren counties, $2.5 million for all three combined.

I'm not sure you could argue they are harder hit than places like Culpeper. In fact, I'd make a pretty good argument against that.

CLARIFICATION/CORRECTION:

It appears Prince William got funds as part of an earlier $7 million award, along with Fairfax county.

The original announcement said there was $20 million available for the Open Submission portion of the program and another $10 million available for the Competitive Program. Between the $17.5 announced yesterday and the earlier $7 million awards, there should be another roughly $5 million available. So there may yet be funds available for Fauquier and Culpeper.

Your Mortgage is Paid

A real estate firm in Ohio is offering clients a sweet deal. If you buy a home using their agents and their mortgage company, they will pay your mortgage for six months if you lose your job.

By now you've probably seen the car companies doing something like this. And, I know of some builders with similar programs. But I've yet to see a real estate firm try this.

In Ohio, this is not a small commitment. The unemployment rate in Ohio is one of the highest in the country and will likely continue to rise given the number of auto-related jobs in the state.

So, hats off to Real Living HER for taking this gamble! I'd love to see a local firm in Northern Virginia step up and try this. It's far less of a risk here and this market could definitely use a little more innovation! And, with 90%+ of the real estate agents locally telling you it's a great time to buy (for at least the last three years!) I'd love to see them put their money where their mouth is!

I don't know that someone who wasn't going to buy is now going to because of this offer. But if you're going to buy a house anyway, seems like you'd be crazy not to use this brokerage.

LATE UPDATE: My apologies to the local firms who have already stepped up and are offering similar programs! (Google let me down on this one!) Long & Foster and REMAX Regency (Warrenton & Manassas offices) are now offering this type of program. Kudos!

Love in the Time of Foreclosure

You'll laugh. You'll cry. You'll identify.

If you're not reading the Love in the Time of Foreclosure blog, you're missing out on some great writing.

At  the very least every real estate agent/broker ought to be reading this.

But I'd argue that it deserves a larger audience. I hope they're reading it at the White House.

Amissville Auction

There was an auction in Amissville last week. The property that was sold was 16 Lantern Lane, an equestrian facility and bed & breakfast. It features a 4 bedroom, 4.5 bath home on 10 acres. The home was built in 2005.

The property features an 11 stall center aisle barn as well as some fencing for horses.

The home was originally listed for sale in February of 2008 for $949,900. The price was reportedly reduced to $795K at some point. It never sold and was taken off the market in August of that same year.

The auction produced a sale price of $550K. If you look at comparable properties in Rappahannock County (minus foreclosure) they're listed for about $600K to about $1 million. (Granted, the $1 million home has no interior photos.)

Given what I see out there, someone got a good deal last week. That's not always true at an auction. Auctions depend on adrenaline kicking in and people bidding more than they intended.

Since prices in Rappahannock County are less elastic than elsewhere in the region it'll be interesting to see if there's any impact on pricing for these similar properties.

$8000 is Back

If you remember, a couple of weeks ago HUD announced that the first time homebuyer tax credit of $8000 would now be allowed as an upfront loan that could be used as a down payment. Because of concerns over no down payment purchases in general and down payment programs in the past, that announcement was recalled almost as fast as it was put out there.

The new and improved version is now out. The $8000 can not be used as a down payment. However, you can get taht $8000 up front, rather than waiting and using the tax credit on your 2009 taxes, provided you use it for closing costs.

The details are in a HUD letter on their web site. I'm a little skeptical that this will be a huge boost to the market. Most sellers were already paying a substantial portion of the buyer's closing costs. But I do appreciate that the government continues to look for ways to backstop a tough real estate market.

The Bad and the Ugly

There have been some positive signs lately in the real estate market. And, being an optimist at heart, I probably tend to focus on those pieces of news. (Let's face it, it's easier to get up and do this every day if I'm optimistic!)

But I don't want to be an unthinking cheerleader for the industry. The news is truly mixed right now and I want to highlight a couple of pieces today that give you the other side of the picture.

Bloomberg has a piece today on the latest mortgage delinquence/foreclosure numbers. To say the numbers aren't pretty is to put a little too good a spin on it. The delinquency rate and the numbe of loans entering foreclosure are both the highest since 1972. And, these are not sub-prime loans. We're talking about the loans any lender, in any market, would have thought were good. These are foreclosures occurring because of a combination of a terrible economy and the huge decrease in the value of the homes. If you lose your job and your house is worth half of what it was 5 years ago; even if you put 20% down, there's a good chance you've got a problem. If you have to sell quickly there may not be buyers at a price that gives you even enough to pay off your mortgage. Foreclosures continue to drive prices down and they continue to come onto the market at an alarming rate. Even locally, whether you're talking Prince William, Fauquier or Culpeper counties, the foreclosures are a continuing problem.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) takes a look at whether a home is even a good long term investment. The article is not exactly an encouragement to buy instead of rent.

Here's the heart of their argument:

Yet look at the numbers. Since 1987, when the Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities begins, it's risen from an index value of 63 to 151. Annual return: Just 4.1% a year. During that period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 3% a year. Net result: Home prices produced a real return of just 1.15% a year over inflation over that time.

Critics may point out that the analysis is unfair -- after all, it starts counting near the peak of the 1980s housing boom. Fair enough. Look at the performance since, say, early 1994, when home prices were near a historic trough. Surely someone who bought then has made a bundle.

Not necessarily. Since then the ten-city index has risen from a value of 76 to 151. Annual return: 4.7%. Inflation over that period: 2.5%. That's still only a real return of 2.2% a year above inflation.

They go on to add that a home could cost you an additional 2% in things like property taxes, insurance, repairs, maintenance, etc.

I'm not saying I agree with their analysis. They admit that focusing on these 10 cities is not necessarily a representative sample. But I do think that not everyone should own a home and that it's important to think it through carefully before you buy, especially now.

National Price Declines Don't Tell the Whole Story

The nationwide numbers out today show that, year over year, home prices continue to decline. That decline was over 18% nationally. Because everyone hears national numbers, rather than local, the tendency is to assume that whatever you're hearing is also the situation locally.

Year over year, our numbers look worse than the national average. The latest numbers available from the local multiple listing service show year over year price declines between 23-32%. But that's only one piece of the picture.

If you're buying a foreclosed home or possibly even a short sale, you may not feel the pricing power you were led to believe you'd have. You see, all the buyers are looking in the same price range. So, even if there are 25% fewer buyers than there were a couple of years ago, if they're all looking at properties, say, on the western end of Prince William County under $350K there is little or no buyer leverage.

So, the pricing picture is considerably more complicated than what you hear in the national press. I'm not blaming them. You can't write a coherent article about prices everywhere! Just be aware that the picture here is a little more nuanced.

The other piece of information in the home price report was that prices nationwide are now at 2002 levels. I suspect we're not quite that low yet. But I haven't yet had an opportunity to do an analysis. I am seeing people who've been in their homes five years or more still under water.

And, if you're wondering when we bounce back up, this Bloomberg article wasn't particularly optimistic:

 “There are very few V-shaped recoveries in the history of real estate, and this one is likely to be even slower because of the size of the bubble,” said Robert Shiller, the Yale University professor who, with economist Karl Case, created home price indexes in the 1980s now used by Standard & Poor’s.

In short, don't expect any rebound in prices soon. I believe from a price perspective we'll bounce along the bottom for quite some time, perhaps a couple of years before we begin very slow appreciation.

If you're looking for a ray of sunshine, one analyst on CNBC suggested yesterday that we could fix the housing problem any time we wanted by increasing the number of immigrants.

HUD Rethinks

The HUD announcement that it would allow the $8000 first time homebuyer tax credit to be used for a downpayment didn't last out the week. All mention of it was pulled from HUD's home page.

Apparently the program as orginally discussed looked too much like the down payment gift programs that were essentially eliminated last year because of the higher foreclosure rates associated with those programs.

NAR (National Association of REALTORS) says HUD is retooling the program and that there will still be a way to do this.

Stay tuned to this space for updates.

Cash for Down Payment

Last week Shaun Donovan, Secretary of HUD, announced that the Obama administration is coming out with a plan to allow buyers to use the $8000 tax credit up front, as a down payment. The plan will apparently be to utilize FHA to monetize this credit.

Basically lenders that provide FHA loans will be allowed to show an $8000 down payment at settlement, coming from the tax credit. Full details are not yet available, but presumably there will be additional paperwork to sign at settlement acknowledging the source of this financing and waiving the right to the tax credit in the future.

We don't know all the details yet. There may be eligibility restrictions that aren't immediately obvious.

And, of course, some of you will still prefer to have the $8000 tax credit. This appears to be an option. You should be able to take the credit now as a down payment or use it as originally intended for a tax credit on your 2009 income taxes.

More details should be available this week.

April Market Numbers

April results are in and for the first time in quite awhile we're seeing a small uptick in inventory in most counties. It's not large enough to be a concern at this point. In fact, given that we're in the busy spring/summer season, it's surprisingly small.

In Culpeper there are currently 494 homes for sale. That's still less than we had in January. And it's a huge improvement over the 800+ homes for sale there a year ago. Sales remain strong with 62 homes sold as opposed to 48 last year at this time.

Fauquier remains flatter. Inventory also rose slightly here. There are 569 homes for sale here now as opposed to 556 a month ago. And we're still much better off than April of 2008 when there were 764 homes for sale. But sales aren't much better than a year ago. 54 homes sold in Fauquier County in April. 49 were sold in this period a year ago.

Prince William was the exception to the increase in inventory. It continues to shrink there; good news for sellers, not good news for first time home buyers. There are 2944 homes for sale in Prince William county, roughly half of what was for sale there a year ago at 5880. Sales decreased very slightly month over month: 741 this month vs 750 last month. But homes are still selling much faster than they were a year ago when only 639 sold in April.

Rappahannock County showed a very large jump, from a percentage point of view. There are now 89 homes for sale here vs 76 last month. 27 new properties came on the market, a lot for this small county. That's the highest number of new listings coming on the market in one month in the last four years. But the number of contracts written also jumped to 5 even though sales fell to 2 last month. Large jumps in inventory in Rappahannock previously have resulted in a subsequent withdrawal of many of those listings as people tested the market and then changed their mind about selling. We'll see if the same scenario plays out this time around.

Overall, the market appears to continue to recovery. The only worry here is the seemingly unending stream of foreclosures coming on the market. Between foreclosures and short sales there appears to be no likelihood (except in Prince William) of price increases any time soon.

The Fees Must Go!

The Seattle Times has an article about a recent court decision declaring brokerage admin fees illegal.

It's about time! These are impossible to justify to clients, particularly sellers who are already paying thousands of dollars in commissions.

It is "nickel and diming" our clients and it's shameful.

If you wonder why the real estate industry has such a poor reputation, here's another reason why.

And, to the argument from brokerages that they can't be profitable without these fees...then clearly there's something wrong with the business model.

But I've been saying that for some time now!

Facing the Mortgage Crisis

Radio station WAMU (88.5) did a week long series of special programming last week entitled "Facing the Mortgage Crisis". I think the series was misnamed. It should have been called "Facing the Financial Crisis" as it covered a much wider array of information than just what's been going on in the housing industry. (Perhaps it's their nod to where it all started!)

You can listen to all the programs at their web site, as well as join in discussions on how all this is affecting you.

It's good stuff and well worth your time. I especially appreciated the replays of the "This American Life" series on the financial crisis. It's some of the best financial journalism out there.

Challenging Tax Assessments

It's no secret that local governments are hurting financially these days. And, property taxes are a huge source of funding. It's only natural that they'd turn once again to this potential source of additional funds.

Of course, the problem is that home values have declined substantially and so, in the normal course of things, you'd expect the assessments to decline as well.

But most of us will not see assessments that look anything like what our homes are actually worth.

I'm sympathetic to government's need for funds to keep important things like schools, fire fighters and police working. But I also know how hard things are for many families right now.

If your property tax assessment looks out of whack, don't be afraid to challenge it. The Virginia Homeowner's Alliance is now giving you the tools to do just that.

And, while you're there, think about joining. It's a great and growing organization and it won't cost you a penny to join!

New Appraisal Requirements

As of May 1st, guidelines will change for appraisals on mortgages that want Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac's blessing. Up until now, your lender chose the appraiser when you applied for a loan. The fee was typically in the $350 range. Each lender had a list of appraisers that they had approved. And, you, as the home buyer, paid for the appraisal at settlement. In this market the seller often gave you money to pay for the appraisal.

Now, lenders will not be allowed to choose the appraiser they use. You can see the reasoning for this. There was a lot of fraud over the last few years. There were crooked lenders using crooked appraisers to "cook" the appraisals to come up with the numbers they wanted/needed. And, that's one piece of why we're in the financial mess we're in.

But no one is very happy about the medicine they'll be taking on this one. Lenders will now go to third party companies who will then assign it to an appraiser they have on their books. Because of the change, appraisers will likely get paid less. But, because another layer has been added in, the consumer will likely pay more.

And, because of the change, buyers will no longer be able to pay for the appraisal at settlement. They'll be required to pay up front. At a time when buyers are putting out cash for other things like home inspections as well, it'll make the money a little tighter. Hopefully, seller's contributions to settlement costs can still be used at settlement to reimburse the buyer for this expense.

As we begin to use the new system, no doubt we'll notice other changes. Stay tuned for more.