DNA and the Local Market |
There continues to be lots of talk, and reports, in the media, of the housing market in general, with recent headlines noting the drop off in sales and in the median price. The big headlines, particularly in the large newspapers or on the Internet, often refer to the statistics on a national level. And that's all well and good. However it can really distort the impressions of what is going on in your particular market (if you are selling) or the one you are pursuing for your relocation. A good example is Austin, Texas (as just one location) where the trends in the housing market are markedly different than what the papers are reporting.
My thinking on this has been inspired by a recent article in REALTOR Magazine, edited by Robert Freedman, about NAR's Chief Economist, David Lereah and his thoughts on the DNA of local markets titled "What's Your Area's DNA" (and his recent book on "All Real Estate is Local"). There are tangible and intangible characteristics of all communities, present and past, that can impact real estate in those communities.And this makes a lot of sense to me, given what I have seen here in San Diego and from tracking the MLS market statistics, where one sometimes sees a different pattern in prices, supply and demand, marketing time, absorption rate, homes for sales and so on, even on a month to month basis.There is also the impact that comes from published studies that cite certain towns or communities as being the most desirable for jobs, or safety, or having the best educational resources, and so on.
My emphasis is that you really need to focus on the local market and understand, if you will, the "genetic makeup" of that market. And a knowledgeable agent will have this information. While prices may be rising, or dropping in a general area, a local market might not be experiencing the same changes. But the statistics that you hear about or read may create an erroneous impression.
Local markets, including specific neighborhoods or even particular high rise or other condo buildings, can be impacted by a variety of factors - the desirability, available inventory vs. demand (some local areas have almost none while the large community may have an excess), demographics, price range, local economic conditions (some neighborhoods are seeing more foreclosures and short sales than others), views, proximity to desired amenities, proposed changes in the area (e.g., a new upscale shopping mall), status as a specialized community (e.g., large percentage of retirees, age-restricted community), schools (e.g., are school boundaries changing, is there a new principal, is a new school being built), newness (e.g., brand new construction not previously seen in the area), among others. So understanding the specifics of the area you are in, or interested in, will help you understand what is going on with prices and demand. And what in happening on one area may not be true in others.
This is not to say you should not pay attention to the statistics for more general areas. Certainly the larger trends can, and sometimes do, trickle down to local communities, but often at a later point in time. But your focus should be more local, and over a period of time, so you are as educated as possible and can make the most informed decision about buying and selling.
