There continues to be lots of talk, and reports, in the media, of the housing market in general, with recent headlines noting the drop off in sales and in the median price. The big headlines, particularly in the large newspapers or on the Internet, often refer to the statistics on a national level. And that's all well and good. However it can really distort the impressions of what is going on in your particular market (if you are selling) or  the one you are pursuing for your relocation. A good example is Austin, Texas (as just one location) where the trends in the housing market are markedly different than what the papers are reporting.

My thinking on this has been inspired by a recent article in REALTOR Magazine, edited by Robert Freedman, about NAR's Chief Economist, David Lereah and his thoughts on the DNA of local markets titled "What's Your Area's DNA"  (and his recent book on "All Real Estate is Local"). There are tangible and intangible characteristics of all communities, present and past, that can impact real estate in those communities.And this makes a lot of sense to me, given what I have seen here in San Diego and from tracking the MLS market statistics, where one sometimes sees a different pattern in prices, supply and demand, marketing time, absorption rate, homes for sales and so on, even on a month to month basis.There is also the impact that comes from published studies that cite certain towns or communities as being the most desirable for jobs, or safety, or having the best educational resources, and so on.

My emphasis is that you really need to focus on the local market and understand, if you will, the "genetic makeup" of that market. And a knowledgeable agent will have this information. While prices may be rising, or dropping in a general area, a local market might not be experiencing the same changes. But the statistics that you hear about or read may create an erroneous impression.

Local markets, including specific neighborhoods or even particular high rise or other condo buildings, can be impacted by a variety of factors - the desirability, available inventory vs. demand (some local areas have almost none while the large community may have an excess), demographics, price range, local economic conditions (some neighborhoods are seeing more foreclosures and short sales than others), views, proximity to desired amenities, proposed changes in the area (e.g., a new upscale shopping mall), status as a specialized community (e.g., large percentage of retirees, age-restricted community), schools (e.g., are school boundaries changing, is there a new principal, is a new school being built), newness (e.g., brand new construction not previously seen in the area), among others. So understanding the specifics of the area you are in, or interested in, will help you understand what is going on with prices and demand. And what in happening on one area may not be true in others.

This is not to say you should not pay attention to the statistics for more general areas. Certainly the larger trends can, and sometimes do, trickle down to local communities, but often at a later point in time. But your focus should be more local, and over a period of time, so you are as educated as possible and can make the most informed decision about buying and selling.

If you are contemplating moving to the Carlsbad area and are interested in new construction, or if your interest is simply learning more about master planned communities as an alternative for your next home, you might want to visit my community profile on La Costa Ridge.

La Costa Ridge is the newest master planned community in the south Carlsbad area known as La Costa, located on the highest hill with dramatic views in all directions. While still being built, there are currently a number of homes for sale in La Costa Ridge. 

Each of the 4 builders has model homes to explore, and some of the completed homes are ready for occupancy. You can also buy pre-construction which can provide some opportunities for site selection and customization depending on the builder options.

Are you considering a move to the Carlsbad area?

La Costa Greens is a new master planned community that offers a range of housing in 6 neighborhoods built by 4 well-known area builders.

Take a look at the community profile and learn more about homes for sale, amenities (including The Presidio, the residents' private club) and more.

If I can answer questions about the area, the housing market, relocation, or if you are a first time buyer, please let me know. Fans of Coastal San Diego has more information on life here in "paradise."

If you are moving (and I assume you are, or will be, or you probably wouldn't be reading this blog), be prepared for your life in boxes.

I suppose this sounds a bit strange, but it's true. A friend of mine down the street who is packing to move emailed about purchasing some of the large boxes I have for paintings from moving, and it reminded me of some of my past moves.

Moving yourself is one thing. We have all done it in college, or moving from apartment to apartment before we could afford a house. My first move using a moving company was pretty disconcerting. Not that they didn't do a great job - their efficiency  was amazing! If only we could be so efficient when we packed ourselves.

But I recall, quite clearly, really being struck at the sight of EVERYTHING in a given room going into boxes...quickly. What was a comfortable, well-lived in home filled with treasures, memories, acquisitions over the years, and just lots of stuff became, in a relatively short time, rooms filled with boxes and nothing else.  My life was in boxes. A very strange feeling.

Making a move down the street or to a nearby town is one thing (been there, done that), but moving across the country was yet another experience (now 4 times). I also remember thinking about our entire house being loaded, box by box, into a large truck (and in 2 moves, along with one of our cars) and knowing that we would not see our possessions again for about 10 days, and feeling very disconnected. While we were excited about going to our new home, the thought of our entire house in boxes in a large truck traveling the highways across the country was an odd experience. I didn't dwell on it, of course, but in retrospect I know it had an impact on me. As I'm sure it did our children.

Maybe it won't strike you in the same way. And it's only temporary. But if you have never made a big move, I guess I would be prepared to experience some of these feelings...and know that it is quite normal and to be expected. It's part of the fun of moving.

Why this title? Read on - if you are selling, or (hopefully) negotiating an offer on your house, this is important information.

Sellers, it's time to be cautious!

If you are selling your home you have been a buyer before. So you know something about getting pre-approved and why this is important. And if you are an experienced seller you likely dealt with the issue of pre-approval for buyers who submitted offers on your listing.

There has been lots of hoopla in the media about the mortgage issues in recent weeks, particularly in the sub-prime market. What does this mean?

• some mortgage money is no longer available
• some lenders are in deep trouble (e.g., New Century) or can no longer lend money for folks looking for 100% or similar loans
• there are likely some buyers who will no longer qualify for a loan because they don't have a down payment due to more rigorous guidelines

Getting pre-approved as a buyer is always recommended. And as a seller you should ALWAYS ask for a pre-approval letter with an offer. Why would you accept an offer from someone that you do not know is qualified for a loan?

But given these new developments:

• it is critical that you DEMAND a pre-approval letter in order to review and accept an offer. To not do so is a huge risk, especially if the buyer is a low or no down payment buyer
• And it might make sense to be sure that the pre-approval is RECENT (if it was 3 months ago the circumstances for that buyer, given the market, may have changed and they may no longer qualify, or the program they were going to use may not exist any longer)
• You need to know if it is a reputable lender

The other concern is that an offer that has already been accepted COULD fall apart if the buyer, despite being pre-approved, can no longer obtain the loan they need due to changes in the programs that are available.

This is NOT to scare you, or to discourage you from selling, but simply to urge caution with the offers you may be receiving, and to make sure things are on the up and up. Your agent can help with this.

Keep in mind that making sure buyers are qualified and can meet the standards of the lender is a good thing. And lending money to risky buyers (poor credit, stated income, 100% in some cases), as has been done in the past, is not wise, so changes to these practices, with more rigorous standards and guidelines, is best for all concerned.

Should you interview your buyer agent? As a REALTOR in Carlsbad that works with both buyers and sellers - yes, I think so.

If you are a buyer, whether  a first time buyer or experienced, read my posts on having a Buyer Presentation BEFORE you make the decision to hire that agent.

• The first post is on why you should have a presentation
• The follow-up post is about what you can expect in a presentation and the kind of information you should seek out.

Good luck. If you have any questions, please let me know.

BUYERS:  would you like to have some statistics on the market in your area?

SELLERS:  do you want to know what market conditions are like BEFORE you list? Or to find out WHY your home is not selling and how to fix that problem?

• If you are in the San Diego County area and want this information, just let me know and I will get it for you
• If you are out of the area, let me know where you are and I can find someone to help you obtain this information (or as the agent you are working with)

You don't have to be a statistics fanatic to want to this information. WHY?

• Because an informed consumer can make the best decision regarding a purchase or the listing price on their home
• If you don't know what is going on in the market, how will you know that the home you wish to buy is priced correctly, or what you should reasonably offer?
• If you are selling, how can you possibly decide on the price to list your home at TO SELL QUICKLY and FOR TOP DOLLAR if you have no clue about the market and what comparable homes are selling for

Here is just a sampling of some things you might want to know. And the information can be in the form of a table, a graph, or simply a written summary of the market.

The graph is for the inventory in Carlsbad over the last 6 months.

Here is a table of summary statistics for Carlsbad for February:

AS OF FEB. 28, 2007	ATTACHED HOMES	DETACHED HOMES
Active	221	413
Sold in February 07 / February 06	23 / 30	45 / 77
Sold in Last 6 Months	200	393
Sold/Pending In Last 6 months	280	430
Absorption Rate (Solds)	199 days	189 days
Absorption Rate (Solds Plus Pendings)	142days	173 days
Average Days on Market	77	78
Median Price Change From 1 Year Ago	-3%	-4%
Median Price	$441,000	$728,750
Average Price	$455,062	$774,576
% Chng in MDN from prior month	3%	0%
New on Market in February	79	120

The statistics do NOT have to be elaborate, but you should have the information that wll allow you to answer the questions that you have, and to make an informed decision. Here are some other things to know about:

• # of homes active on the market (in your price range)
• # of homes sold in last 6 months
• Sale price/List price ratios of homes that are active and that have sold
• Days on market (DOM)
• Price per SF of living space of sold comparable homes
• Price range of sold homes that are comparable

You get the idea. You agent will know what kind of information may be helpful, and you will possibly have some other ideas as well.

DON'T make the decision to buy or sell solely on statistics, but they are an important part of becoming an educated consumer.

My friend, Kathryn Holt, a Feng Shui expert, just posted a great article on Feng Shui Basics. There is some good learning there if this interests you, or you are just curious.

Take a look, and improve your life NOW!

Jeff

PS - this photo, which I love, was taken from Kathryn's website - I recommend you check it out

Sellers - what percentage are you?

Is your home priced correctly so it will sell quickly, say this month? Or you going to be one of the sellers whose homes does not sell and becomes a statistic for next month?

In the communities near me (North San Diego County) , for February 2007 approximately 19% of the homes that were active on the market went under contract and/or sold. That means, of course, that a whopping 81% of the homes that were on the market did not sell. That's 4 out of every 5 homes. [obviously these numbers may be different in your area...maybe even higher!]

So which percentage do YOU want to be?

• Did you price your home correctly to be one of the 20% that will sell?
• If you are planning to market your home, don't you WANT to be the 1 out of 5 homes that DOES SELL next month?
• Or are you going to price your home higher than the market will bear and become the 80% that is still listed a month later?

It's your choice. Choose wisely. Use a REALTOR and find out what you need to know.

It costs you money EVERY DAY that your home does not sell.

I know this is an unpleasant subject, but now that tax time is approaching (too quickly, in my mind, but there it is), I thought I would take a moment to talk a bit more about taxes as they relate to your relocation. If you moved in 2006, you may have some deductions you can take advantage of when you file April 15 (or before, if you are really on the ball).

Keep in mind that I am NOT a tax expert, and I cannot provide tax advice. For that, I strongly recommend talking to your accountant or CPA. Don't miss out on a deduction that is rightfully yours! By the same token you don't want to try to deduct something that you are not entitled to.

The IRS puts out a pretty good tax guide that I used myself in the past entitled Publication 521: Moving Expenses. It is as readable as all the other tax publications (sarcasm intended).

• You can take a deduction for the cost of moving your household goods (provided you meet the distance requirements)
• And there are some transportation costs (lodging and driving your car to the new location) too. Check on this as I believe there is an allowance for lodging the first night after your stuff is packed and for the first night in your new location
• I understand there is also a deduction that may be allowed for a second car that you drive to your new location. Watch the $ per mile as this seems to change each year and may be different from what it was last year (2005)
• Storage of household goods (there is a limit on the time allowed)

I just posted a Market Update Guest Blog which focuses on the mortgage industry and recent issues, especially in the subprime market. The next few weeks will be telling in terms of the impact this may have on some buyers (those who would have normally been looking for 100% financing).

It is helpful reading, and reprinted verbatim with the author's permission. Good article for both buyers and sellers in this housing market.

I recommend you take a look at it.

Jeff

I recently did a listing presentation for a couple who had been trying to sell their home on their own for almost a year, then decided to bring in an agent. They live out of the area and trying to handle the sale on their own was a hassle, even though they have been successful with other homes in the past. And in this market the limited advertising they did was not doing the trick. AND the house was really over-priced.

I dogged these people for 6 months, sending them market data and updates, suggestions for marketing the home, and more. So I was very pleased to be asked to come in to talk with them (as one of 3 agents they were interviewing, for 30 minutes each).

The presentation, though brief, went well and we had a good conversation. They had some great questions, too. The house has its challenges, as it needs some updating, but the bones are good and the floor plan offers a number of possibilities.

A few days later Mrs. Seller called me, as I requested, to let me know that they had decided on another agent (as it turns out, someone they have known for a number of years) but they had really liked me and my approach and style. There was no negative feedback - they only chose this person because of the relationship. They will keep me in mind if things do not work out.

I told them I really hoped the house sold for them, even though that would mean I would not be their listing agent.

Sure, I would have liked to have had the listing, but I was pleased to be part of the process, and the feedback I got was very positive. So I feel that I still won, in the end. I wish them luck!

I would describe Cardiff as the quintessential beach town. I'm sure there are others that can be described this way...I just haven't visited them yet. Half Moon Bay, near San Francisco, is another one.

Cardiff is close to my home here in Carlsbad, in Southern California, and I do business there, both with buyers and sellers. We considered buying there but couldn't find the right place at the time (inventory was much smaller then). Anyhow, despite the limited inventory (it's a small town) there is a lot to recommend it, especially if you want ocean views and can afford it.

I assembled a few tours about the  area that may be of interest. Even if you are not looking to buy, I would be interested in your feedback.

Cardiff-by-the-Sea - an overview

The Walking District in Cardiff - a neat neighborhood with great views and all within walking distance of the town center

The Composer District in Cardiff - a neighborhood where almost all the streets are named after composers

I just posted an article on the fears that plague most sellers on my ActiveRain blog:

• fear of not selling
• fear of negative feedback
• fear of not showing well
• and more

If you are selling now, or thinking about it, take a look. If I can asnwer any questions, please let me know.

I posted a somewhat humorous, yet serious, article on using your digital camera yesterday on another site. This was intended for agents, buyers, sellers, home staging professionals and inspectors/appraisers.

If you are in the process of, or thinking about, buying and/or selling, you might enjoy reading this...plus get some ideas from it for how you can and should use your camera.

Here's the link on my What's Up Doc? blog on ActiveRain.

Have a fabulous weekend!

Jeff