As promised to the good folks at DCHousingBlues (and by extension HousingDoom), here are the latest statistics from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, which includes Maricopa County as well as out-of-county listings taken by in-county member agents.

I'm skipping commentary on the following statistics to allow readers to draw their own conclusions, whether they prefer year-over-year or month-over-month comparisons, and also because I'd hate to be accused of spinning the statistics. These are the numbers, do with them whatever you choose.

ARMLS Average Sales Price Per Month

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2001	171,900	169,700	175,900	172,300	173,200	180,200	177,200	171,900	170,700	170,800	171,000	175,600
2002	184,100	170,200	177,200	180,000	183,200	188,200	187,300	181,700	176,600	182,600	185,200	184,500
2003	184,200	185,700	188,700	187,200	198,900	202,000	198,000	200,200	195,300	287,200	199,300	208,300
2004	206,100	204,000	212,500	208,800	215,000	231,900	220,400	222,000	224,700	231,100	232,600	237,000
2005	255,500	249,100	271,300	280,500	300,100	316,500	311,400	318,300	315,800	321,400	320,500	329,100
2006	336,900	224,000	330,600	329,100	345,200	348,100	332,300	331,300	324,500	330,200

ARMLS Home Sales Median Price Per Month

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2001	122,000	124,900	127,500	128,500	129,900	133,900	133,000	129,000	128,000	126,900	128,000	129,000
2002	138,000	134,000	129,900	135,000	139,500	141,000	140,000	140,000	139,000	142,000	141,000	145,000
2003	143,100	140,000	145,000	145,000	149,900	151,500	153,000	153,900	150,000	149,900	149,500	151,000
2004	150,500	150,000	155,000	155,000	160,500	169,000	168,000	168,000	170,000	174,900	176,000	181,900
2005	188,000	190,000	206,000	220,000	235,000	249,900	252,000	255,500	260,000	256,900	255,000	255,000
2006	254,900	252,000	255,000	255,000	259,900	264,800	257,000	254,900	249,900	250,000

ARMLS Home Sales Per Month

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December	Total
2001	3,700	4,609	5,704	5,833	6,244	6,164	5,638	5,728	4,801	4,766	4,761	4,466	62,412
2002	4,016	4,403	5,732	6,131	6,783	6,404	6,114	5,797	5,542	5,723	5,365	5,940	67,950
2003	4,760	5,493	6,545	7,464	7,468	7,495	7,680	7,688	6,866	6,541	5,693	6,357	80,052
2004	5,118	6,196	8,744	8,971	9,019	10,019	9,040	8,992	8,677	8,173	8,071	7,902	98,922
2005	6,632	7,781	9,987	9,600	9,890	10,252	9,394	10,031	9,213	8,046	7,350	6,549	104,725
2006	5,266	5,918	7,497	6,798	7.573	7,214	6,102	6,163	5,608	5,599			63,738

ARMLS carries the disclaimer that "ARMLS does not guarantee nor is any way responsible for its accuracy; data maintained by ARMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market." I'll say ditto, as I'm relying on the available sales data.

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

Remember six short years back to the year 2000 and the discussion of the Y2K bug? Civilization as we know it was destined to end when the clock struck midnight, all because nothing in this big, wide world was built to handle a two-digit year beginning with a zero. There was one radio host who had devoted his show for months to this idea. And then he and the rest of us woke up on January 1, 2000 and discovered nothing had happened after all.

Fast forward six-plus years and you're seeing a similar phenomenon with discussion of the so-called real estate bubble. The concept is not original - preying upon the hidden fears of the naive has been taking place for thousands of year - and neither is the terminology, which was stolen from the "tech bubble" the stock market experienced shortly after the Y2K worries disappeared.

The short version of the story - investors who had abandoned the stock market entered the real estate market, drove prices to insane heights and now are pulling back out of those markets and leaving the local real estate markets in smoldering ruins. So all a prospective buyer needs to do is wait long enough, the 30 - 50% increases in property value will vanish and everyone can go back to buying at 2004 prices.

And don't forget to hold on to that Confederate money, Scarlett, because the South will rise again ...

The bubble is a myth. It is a myth fueled by people either with only the slightest understanding of the underpinnings of the real estate market, those who for whatever reason wanted to buy before the run-up and didn't, and kept alive by a national media reporting facts and figures without the slightest desire (or ability) to provide perspective to the statistics.

Some have discussed the progenitors of the real estate bubble has civic-minded citizens looking out for their fellow man. While noble, this broad brush ignores the truth behind the so-called bubble ...

Bubble myths are fueled by individuals' private agendas. Much like the woebegone criminals that appeared on the Electric Company in our youth (the guy smashing tomato sauce cans because his frog was canned as a child was my favorite), many who espouse the existence of a real-estate bubble harbor agendas that are relevant primarily to themselves but pass them off as a public good.

Maybe they bought in the midst of the hysteria. Maybe they wanted to buy but lost in a bidding war on a property. Or maybe they couldn't gather the courage to actually purchase, believing as always the market would come down even before it ran up, and now not even a drop in prices will allow them to enter the market. Or perhaps these folks are looking for the 15 minutes of Warholian fame to which everyone believes they are entitled. Blogging, like calling into talk radio, turns anyone with a keyboard (or phone) into an authority on the subject.

Bubble myths are fueled by are fueled by false hope. Many choose to believe the bubble hype rather than face the reality of markets where prices, even if they have declined, are not declining at a rate anywhere close to the increase. Yet some will read the blogs and listen to the news and fully believe that if only they wait a little longer, the home they want will fall 30% in value within months and land in their lap.

Of course, the major problem with such a notion and with the entire bubble concept is real estate is not the stock market. Stocks can and do drop to zero. Entire investments - every last cent - can be lost (and more, for those engaging in truly speculative plays.) Not so real estate. There is intrinsic value in land. Always has been. Always will be. To deny that fact is to base theory purely on mythology. Land may not always appreciate. Land may not always be located in areas where people want to purchase it (ask my sister in Houston, for example.) But land will always have an intrinsic value.

Bubble myths are fueled by a media machine with little idea what they report. As I've said many times, having been a reporter for a living, the vast majority of reporters are knowledgeable in many areas and expert in none. The job doesn't require expertise and, frankly, when you are on a tight deadline it's not necessary to know every nuance of the topics you are covering. You need to know enough to write a story that presumable will inform the public. You need to know enough to make sure what you're reporting is truthful. And that will suffice.

But as Jeff Brown has pointed out in the past, truth doesn't necessarily make a story accurate.

So where do we go from here? Sadly, nowhere. Another aspect of much of the bubble set is their demand for total capitulation on the part of those in the real estate profession and those who do not share their views. There is no opportunity for debate because it is not debate they seek. And if you try to discuss the topic rationally, you quickly become the victim of ad hominem attacks.

Instead, the decision is left for the public at large, particularly those who are thinking of buying a home. What the bubble folks aren't telling you is many of them already own real estate. Yet they argue that those who don't, those who want to purchase their first home, should not.

A little odd, don't you think?

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes