My apologies to the e-mail readers for receiving more than one e-mail today but I have the poll working and want to give you a chance to have your opinion heard. We'll try these polls from time to time ... if it proves successful, I may use it to help me with my football picks this week in my wife's football pool.

Where will the Phoenix Market Go in 2007?

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

The supply of homes continued to fall over the past week, with sales for the past 30 days holding roughly steady if not slightly higher. I'm expecting to see the supply trend change within the first two weeks of the new year as owners prepare to put their homes on the market, either for the first time or after pulling them off the market for the holidays.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/26/06

CITY	SOLD 11/26-12/26	ACTIVE 12/26	Absorption Rate as of 12/26/06	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	19	83	4.37 months	-0.28	Seller
Anthem	38	567	14.92	-1.36	Buyer
Avondale	109	786	7.21	-0.04	Buyer
Buckeye	74	752	10.16	-1.89	Buyer
Carefree	3	94	31.33	-16.17	Buyer
Cave Creek	38	471	12.39	0.86	Buyer
Chandler	330	1,834	5.56	-0.48	Buyer/Neutral
Desert Hills	14	177	12.64	-1.20	Buyer
El Mirage	54	348	6.44	-0.20	Buyer
Fountain Hills	38	377	9.92	-0.43	Buyer
Gilbert	312	1,998	6.40	-0.37	Buyer
Glendale	251	1,773	7.06	-0.10	Buyer
Goodyear	110	948	8.62	-1.81	Buyer
Laveen	59	377	6.39	-0.29	Buyer
Litchfield Park	34	376	11.06	-1.61	Buyer
Maricopa	67	748	11.16	-1.84	Buyer
Mesa	432	2,689	6.22	-0.22	Buyer
Paradise Valley	24	255	10.63	-1.71	Buyer
Peoria	181	1,565	8.65	-0.23	Buyer
Phoenix	1,162	6,547	5.63	0.03	Buyer
Queen Creek	150	1,610	10.73	0.32	Buyer
Scottsdale	311	2,834	9.11	-0.49	Buyer
Sun City	74	595	8.04	-0.15	Buyer
Sun City West	46	509	11.07	-0.29	Buyer
Surprise	195	1,967	10.09	-0.04	Buyer
Tempe	97	375	3.87	-0.32	Seller
Tolleson	29	271	9.34	-0.69	Buyer
Waddell	14	100	7.14	0.77	Buyer
TOTAL	4,179	30,193	7.22	-0.26	Buyer

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

These are the moments when I find humor in those who endeavor to practice real estate as a part-time endeavor. Some would say that perhaps they are to be envied, as they have their regular career upon which they can focus ... their drive is not to become the best agent they can for their clients, but to be a choice of convenience for those they know, hoping all the while they don't make some crucial error along the way.

It's 11:02 in the evening ... two of the three children, the wife and the beagle all are in bed. (The 14-year-old likely will not be asleep for another couple of hours in keeping with her gradual transition into a teenage vampire, avoiding the light in favor of her cave-like bedroom.) I've finished glancing at my RSS reader, searching for articles of interest. I've continued tinkering with the formatting on this blog, searching for ways to make it more user-friendly than I already hope it to be. I've tinkered with my other three websites, searching for any missing element that could cause the sites to rise in the search engines. And still sleep eludes me.

My 7-year-old believes I work all the time which, naturally, isn't quite true. But I am on call for large portions of the day. And real estate is a job that demands immediacy.

Yesterday afternoon I received an e-mail from someone in Wittmann looking to place their home and acreage on the market. By the end of the night last night, Christmas evening be damned, he had a response. We'll be meeting Thursday and I'm confident it will be my sign being placed in the front yard of the house.

Last weekend I was dropping off some paperwork at an acquaintance's house, on my way to meet some prospective clients in Surprise. It ends up she wants to put her home on the market, too. We'll be meeting this weekend, once my daughter is back at her mom's and I have a little more time with which to work.

The bottom line is when my clients need me, I am here. I may not answer the phone every time they call (usually because I'm already on the other line), but they will hear back from within the hour. This has held true whether I'm mowing the yard or sitting through a movie. If one of my clients also was having trouble sleeping and e-mailed me now, they'd have a response within minutes. It's what they expect, what consumers in general expect in this Internet-driven age, and it's what I deliver.

Though I have more free time than those punching a clock, the time rarely feels as if it's my own. There ALWAYS is one more phone call I can make, one more web page to update, one more e-mail to send. For a part-time these may not be high priorities. But they aren't building their career on a foundation of service. To fall into a poker analogy, they're waiting for the nuts and being blinded off one fee at a time.

(Translation ... while waiting for the low-hanging fruit of friends and colleagues, they're spending money they may not earn back on licensing, renewals, continuing education and board fees.)

Are they the lucky ones? At 11:12 p.m. (yes, this took 10 minutes) it sometimes seems so ... they're asleep in their beds. But at 5:30 tomorrow morning when their alarms go off, they head to their jobs and they do nothing to expand their real estate knowledge ... I don't think so.

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

I had planned on letting Bonnie enjoy the front page today. Then I took a look at the latest absorption rate numbers, through today. While the lower supply figures are due mostly to expiring inventory as the holidays approach, I'm not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Inventory has steadily dropped the past three months, leading to lower absorption rate figures.

And sales for the 30 days immediately past are comparable to totals for late November, a little surprising given the reduced interest as the winter solstice approaches.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/20/06

CITY	SOLD 11/19-12/19	ACTIVE 12/19	Absorption Rate as of 12/19/06	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	20	92	4.65 months	-1.35	Seller
Anthem	35	570	16.29	-1.93	Buyer
Avondale	110	798	7.25	-1.46	Buyer
Buckeye	62	747	12.05	-2.10	Buyer
Carefree	2	95	47.50	15.83	Buyer
Cave Creek	36	477	13.25	2.67	Buyer
Chandler	313	1,891	6.04	-0.34	Buyer
Desert Hills	13	180	13.85	-8.28	Buyer
El Mirage	54	359	6.65	-0.37	Buyer
Fountain Hills	37	383	10.35	-0.59	Buyer
Gilbert	301	2,040	6.78	-0.49	Buyer
Glendale	252	1,805	7.16	-0.23	Buyer
Goodyear	93	970	10.43	-0.21	Buyer
Laveen	57	381	6.68	-0.33	Buyer
Litchfield Park	30	380	12.67	0.76	Buyer
Maricopa	59	767	13.00	0.57	Buyer
Mesa	423	2,727	6.45	-0.59	Buyer
Paradise Valley	21	259	12.33	-0.77	Buyer
Peoria	182	1,616	8.88	-0.53	Buyer
Phoenix	1,190	6,664	5.60	-0.25	Buyer
Queen Creek	159	1,656	10.42	-0.08	Buyer
Scottsdale	302	2,900	9.60	-0.26	Buyer
Sun City	74	606	8.19	-0.34	Buyer
Sun City West	45	511	11.36	1.38	Buyer
Surprise	195	1,975	10.13	-0.15	Buyer
Tempe	92	385	4.18	-1.11	Seller
Tolleson	28	281	10.04	-2.36	Buyer
Waddell	16	102	6.48	-0.19	Buyer
TOTAL	4,111	30,777	7.49	-0.42	Buyer

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

• Too much to do in too little time
• Relating to family or friends while under stress
• Packing (does anyone like it?)
• Sleeplessness because we’re worried about the “list” that needs to be done
• Keeping the house clean for that drop-in visitor (showings)
• The chaos of many things added to an already busy schedule

•  Worry over the financing of the new house
•  Job or work status disruption
•  Change in all support services, i.e., utilities, medical, schools, churches, etc.
•  Distance from family and/or friends
•  Lack of offers on the current home
•  Anticipation of new family status
• . . . add your particular stressor to the list

1.  Time – Accept the fact that sometimes everything can’t be done. What can you eliminate to reduce the drain on limited time resources? Will writing a “to do” list help you not to ruminate over the list at night? Can the list be prioritized with the “must do” things taking precedence over the “want to do”? Will a hard look at the “want to do” list allow some items to be eliminated or postponed to a later time? Is there time to schedule a cup of coffee or eggnog in front of the tree between tasks? Can any tasks be delegated or even hired out?

2.  Finances – Worrying about whether a house will sell or not, or whether you will qualify for a loan or not, only hurts the worrier. Take the task in hand and do it the best that you can, and then let the professionals complete the process. Worrying will not expedite the progress one iota, it only contributes to high blood pressure and ulcers!

 

To reduce financial stress for the holidays, consider smaller gifts combined with a refocus on the thought behind the gift. Consider drawing names or doing a Yankee Swap with each person bringing a generic gift within a price range. The Yankee Swap allows surprise guests to participate in your holiday gift exchange as well. Other solutions include gathering for a Christmas brunch and donating what would have been gift exchange money to a local charity. One family might choose to exchange home make food items or “gift certificates” for household chores. Your family can come up with creative solutions that work for you. 

(c) Bonnie Erickson 2006