Glendale, Arizona
Phoenix Arizona Real Estate Blog presented by Jonathan Dalton, RE/MAX Desert Showcase
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Dec. 27, 2006
The supply of homes continued to fall over the past week, with sales for the past 30 days holding roughly steady if not slightly higher. I'm expecting to see the supply trend change within the first two weeks of the new year as owners prepare to put their homes on the market, either for the first time or after pulling them off the market for the holidays.
Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/26/06
| CITY |
SOLD 11/26-12/26 |
ACTIVE 12/26 |
Absorption Rate
as of 12/26/06 |
Change |
Buyer/Seller |
| Ahwatukee |
19 |
83 |
4.37 months |
-0.28 |
Seller |
| Anthem |
38 |
567 |
14.92 |
-1.36 |
Buyer |
| Avondale |
109 |
786 |
7.21 |
-0.04 |
Buyer |
| Buckeye |
74 |
752 |
10.16 |
-1.89 |
Buyer |
| Carefree |
3 |
94 |
31.33 |
-16.17 |
Buyer |
| Cave Creek |
38 |
471 |
12.39 |
0.86 |
Buyer |
| Chandler |
330 |
1,834 |
5.56 |
-0.48 |
Buyer/Neutral |
| Desert Hills |
14 |
177 |
12.64 |
-1.20
|
Buyer |
| El Mirage |
54 |
348 |
6.44 |
-0.20 |
Buyer |
| Fountain Hills |
38 |
377 |
9.92 |
-0.43
|
Buyer |
| Gilbert |
312 |
1,998 |
6.40 |
-0.37 |
Buyer |
| Glendale |
251 |
1,773 |
7.06 |
-0.10 |
Buyer |
| Goodyear |
110 |
948 |
8.62 |
-1.81 |
Buyer |
| Laveen |
59 |
377 |
6.39 |
-0.29 |
Buyer |
| Litchfield Park |
34 |
376 |
11.06 |
-1.61 |
Buyer |
| Maricopa |
67 |
748 |
11.16 |
-1.84 |
Buyer |
| Mesa |
432 |
2,689 |
6.22 |
-0.22 |
Buyer |
| Paradise Valley |
24 |
255 |
10.63 |
-1.71 |
Buyer |
| Peoria |
181 |
1,565 |
8.65 |
-0.23 |
Buyer |
| Phoenix |
1,162 |
6,547 |
5.63 |
0.03 |
Buyer |
| Queen Creek |
150 |
1,610 |
10.73 |
0.32 |
Buyer |
| Scottsdale |
311 |
2,834 |
9.11 |
-0.49 |
Buyer |
| Sun City |
74 |
595 |
8.04 |
-0.15 |
Buyer |
| Sun City West |
46 |
509 |
11.07 |
-0.29 |
Buyer |
| Surprise |
195 |
1,967 |
10.09 |
-0.04 |
Buyer |
| Tempe |
97 |
375 |
3.87 |
-0.32 |
Seller |
| Tolleson |
29 |
271 |
9.34 |
-0.69 |
Buyer |
| Waddell |
14 |
100 |
7.14 |
0.77 |
Buyer |
| TOTAL |
4,179 |
30,193 |
7.22 |
-0.26 |
Buyer |
(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes
Dec. 19, 2006
I had planned on letting Bonnie enjoy the front page today. Then I took a look at the latest absorption rate numbers, through today. While the lower supply figures are due mostly to expiring inventory as the holidays approach, I'm not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Inventory has steadily dropped the past three months, leading to lower absorption rate figures.
And sales for the 30 days immediately past are comparable to totals for late November, a little surprising given the reduced interest as the winter solstice approaches.
Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/20/06
| CITY |
SOLD 11/19-12/19 |
ACTIVE 12/19 |
Absorption Rate
as of 12/19/06 |
Change |
Buyer/Seller |
| Ahwatukee |
20 |
92 |
4.65 months |
-1.35 |
Seller |
| Anthem |
35 |
570 |
16.29 |
-1.93 |
Buyer |
| Avondale |
110 |
798 |
7.25 |
-1.46 |
Buyer |
| Buckeye |
62 |
747 |
12.05 |
-2.10 |
Buyer |
| Carefree |
2 |
95 |
47.50 |
15.83 |
Buyer |
| Cave Creek |
36 |
477 |
13.25 |
2.67 |
Buyer |
| Chandler |
313 |
1,891 |
6.04 |
-0.34 |
Buyer |
| Desert Hills |
13 |
180 |
13.85 |
-8.28
|
Buyer |
| El Mirage |
54 |
359 |
6.65 |
-0.37 |
Buyer |
| Fountain Hills |
37 |
383 |
10.35 |
-0.59
|
Buyer |
| Gilbert |
301 |
2,040 |
6.78 |
-0.49 |
Buyer |
| Glendale |
252 |
1,805 |
7.16 |
-0.23 |
Buyer |
| Goodyear |
93 |
970 |
10.43 |
-0.21 |
Buyer |
| Laveen |
57 |
381 |
6.68 |
-0.33 |
Buyer |
| Litchfield Park |
30 |
380 |
12.67 |
0.76 |
Buyer |
| Maricopa |
59 |
767 |
13.00 |
0.57 |
Buyer |
| Mesa |
423 |
2,727 |
6.45 |
-0.59 |
Buyer |
| Paradise Valley |
21 |
259 |
12.33 |
-0.77 |
Buyer |
| Peoria |
182 |
1,616 |
8.88 |
-0.53 |
Buyer |
| Phoenix |
1,190 |
6,664 |
5.60 |
-0.25 |
Buyer |
| Queen Creek |
159 |
1,656 |
10.42 |
-0.08 |
Buyer |
| Scottsdale |
302 |
2,900 |
9.60 |
-0.26 |
Buyer |
| Sun City |
74 |
606 |
8.19 |
-0.34 |
Buyer |
| Sun City West |
45 |
511 |
11.36 |
1.38 |
Buyer |
| Surprise |
195 |
1,975 |
10.13 |
-0.15 |
Buyer |
| Tempe |
92 |
385 |
4.18 |
-1.11 |
Seller |
| Tolleson |
28 |
281 |
10.04 |
-2.36 |
Buyer |
| Waddell |
16 |
102 |
6.48 |
-0.19 |
Buyer |
| TOTAL |
4,111 |
30,777 |
7.49 |
-0.42 |
Buyer |
(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes
Nov. 27, 2006
For those of you new to the blog, I've been tracking absorption rate for single-family homes in Maricopa County and the individual cities therein since July. Absorption rate is a fancier name for the supply of homes - divide the number of active listings by the number of sales in a set time period and you've got your supply.
In my case, I've been tracking the sales and the absorption rate with a 30-day rolling average to provide a supply based in months. As we have seen for the last three weeks, inventory among single-family homes continues to fall though it's increasingly obvious the drop is due less to heavier sales than the inevitability of listings going inactive (cancelled, expired or taken off the market) for the holidays. This week we also see a decrease in sales, which is normal for this time of year, leading to an increased county-wide absorption rate.
A five-month supply of homes is considered the baseline for a balanced market between buyers and sellers. As you can see, we're well above that baseline with an oversupply of homes, leaving us in a continued buyers' market.
The big question remains: what will happen after the first of the year? If the market is flooded suddenly with additional inventory then we will be right back where we've been. If inventory remains lower than it has been, the market may have a chance to gain some traction for the first time in a year.
Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/27
| CITY |
SOLD 10/13-11/13 |
ACTIVE 11/13 |
Absorption Rate
as of 11/13/06 |
Change |
Buyer/Seller |
| Ahwatukee |
15 |
102 |
6.80 months |
-0.13 |
Buyer |
| Anthem |
37 |
637 |
17.22 |
-1.12 |
Buyer |
| Avondale |
105 |
877 |
8.35 |
0.04 |
Buyer |
| Buckeye |
65 |
789 |
12.14 |
0.86 |
Buyer |
| Carefree |
4 |
93 |
23.25 |
-8.08 |
Buyer |
| Cave Creek |
53 |
505 |
9.53 |
0.12 |
Buyer |
| Chandler |
276 |
2,062 |
7.47 |
0.31 |
Buyer |
| Desert Hills |
8 |
169 |
21.13 |
-4.02 |
Buyer |
| El Mirage |
54 |
376 |
6.96 |
-0.04 |
Buyer |
| Fountain Hills |
28 |
410 |
14.64 |
-2.44 |
Buyer |
| Gilbert |
273 |
2,222 |
8.14 |
0.15 |
Buyer |
| Glendale |
252 |
1,960 |
7.78 |
0.87 |
Buyer |
| Goodyear |
81 |
1,026 |
12.67 |
0.97 |
Buyer |
| Laveen |
63 |
383 |
6.08 |
1.05 |
Buyer |
| Litchfield Park |
35 |
404 |
11.54 |
-0.52 |
Buyer |
| Maricopa |
74 |
770 |
10.41 |
-0.13 |
Buyer |
| Mesa |
412 |
2,879 |
6.99 |
0.17 |
Buyer |
| Paradise Valley |
23 |
265 |
11.52 |
1.89 |
Buyer |
| Peoria |
163 |
1,682 |
10.32 |
0.70 |
Buyer |
| Phoenix |
1,141 |
7,031 |
6.16 |
0.18 |
Buyer |
| Queen Creek |
175 |
1,773 |
10.13 |
0.13 |
Buyer |
| Scottsdale |
299 |
3,046 |
10.19 |
0.85 |
Buyer |
| Sun City |
65 |
605 |
9.31 |
0.64 |
Buyer |
| Sun City West |
40 |
503 |
12.58 |
0.43 |
Buyer |
| Surprise |
203 |
2,102 |
10.35 |
0.73 |
Buyer |
| Tempe |
80 |
428 |
5.35 |
0.38 |
Neutral |
| Tolleson |
38 |
290 |
7.63 |
1.19 |
Buyer |
| Waddell |
13 |
95 |
7.31 |
-1.28 |
Buyer |
| TOTAL |
3,933 |
32,570 |
8.28 |
0.37 |
Buyer |
Data provided by ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed
(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes
Nov. 7, 2006
A flurry of recent listings and a rush of buyers' activity has prevented me from posting the absorption rate numbers for the Phoenix area, though I've been tracking them steadily since the middle of July.
Here's this week's edition - as always, single-family homes only and all data provided by ARMLS. Also, I'll be posting back data for past weeks over the next few days and also backdating the posts. Those with an RSS feed likely will still see them pop up, but I won't be sending the back data to the mailing list. What's done is done, after all, but there's value in posting for posterity.
Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/07
| CITY |
SOLD 107-11/7 |
ACTIVE 11/7 |
Absorption Rate
as of 11/7/06 |
Change |
Buyer/Seller |
| Ahwatukee |
11 |
107 |
9.73 months |
-3.16 |
Buyer |
| Anthem |
39 |
668 |
17.13 |
-3.17 |
Buyer |
| Avondale |
122 |
960 |
7.87 |
-0.44 |
Buyer |
| Buckeye |
68 |
823 |
12.10 |
-0.25 |
Buyer |
| Chandler |
322 |
2,239 |
6.95 |
-1.38 |
Buyer |
| El Mirage |
59 |
391 |
6.63 |
-1.49 |
Buyer |
| Fountain Hills |
19 |
411 |
21.63 |
1.77 |
Buyer |
| Gilbert |
271 |
2,338 |
8.63 |
-1.67 |
Buyer |
| Glendale |
301 |
1,994 |
6.62 |
-1.10 |
Buyer |
| Goodyear |
86 |
1,076 |
12.51 |
-1.26 |
Buyer |
| Laveen |
80 |
380 |
4.75 |
-0.97 |
Seller |
| Litchfield Park |
34 |
418 |
12.29 |
-0.43 |
Buyer |
| Maricopa |
69 |
775 |
11.23 |
-0.34 |
Buyer |
| Mesa |
455 |
2,965 |
6.52 |
-1.47 |
Buyer |
| Peoria |
175 |
1,771 |
10.12 |
-1.84 |
Buyer |
| Phoenix |
1,241 |
7,233 |
5.83 |
-0.94 |
Buyer/Neutral |
| Queen Creek |
162 |
1,884 |
11.63 |
-3.17 |
Buyer |
| Scottsdale |
316 |
3,059 |
9.68 |
-0.94 |
Buyer |
| Sun City |
61 |
585 |
9.59 |
-3.21 |
Buyer |
| Sun City West |
36 |
479 |
13.31 |
-0.69 |
Buyer |
| Surprise |
206 |
2,169 |
10.53 |
-0.22 |
Buyer |
| Tempe |
86 |
449 |
5.22 |
-1.41 |
Neutral |
| Tolleson |
42 |
297 |
7.07 |
0.97 |
Buyer |
| Waddell |
7 |
104 |
14.86 |
-13.14 |
Buyer |
| TOTAL |
4,225 |
33,622 |
7.96 |
-1.27 |
Buyer |
Also, by special request, I'll be tracking Cave Creek, Carefree, Desert Hills and Paradise Valley as of next week. Consider this a sneak preview: Cave Creek 10.36 months (50 sales/518 actives), Carefree 23.5 months (4/94), Desert Hills 22.6 months (8/181) and Paradise Valley 10.58 (24/254).
(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes
Nov. 4, 2006
After wading through nearly 100 expired listings in Glendale, Peoria and Surprise on Wednesday and Thursday I decided to check the absorption rate figures for single-family homes in Maricopa County. On Monday there was a 9-plus month supply of homes. By last night that figure had dropped to 7.65, a fairly decent drop.
The main reason for the decline is almost certainly the listings that expired earlier this week; there were around 1,000 fewer homes on the market last night than Monday. Still, the statistics I've tracked have crossed other first days of the months and there has yet to be as large a drop in the inventory. More significantly, the entire point of tracking the absorption rate is to place current housing inventory levels into some sort of perspective. And looking at this way, it really doesn't matter what caused the decline in inventory. It only matters that the inventory is down.
Will it rise to previous levels? Maybe, maybe not. With the holidays coming up it's fairly common to see properties taken off the market. In fact, the last listing I took included language that specifies the home will be off the market from December 18 through January 2. But even if it's a one- or two-week anomaly, any signs of shrinking inventory can only be positive.
In two other notes from other blogs ...
My wife will be happy to learn I'm not a curmudgeon after all, at least by Pat's definition at Transparent Real Estate.
And lastly, Russell Shaw has entered the Phoenix Arizona blogging arena on Voldemort's blog. When someone sells as many homes as Russell has over the past couple of decades, it's always interesting to see what he might have to say.
(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes
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