The supply of homes continued to fall over the past week, with sales for the past 30 days holding roughly steady if not slightly higher. I'm expecting to see the supply trend change within the first two weeks of the new year as owners prepare to put their homes on the market, either for the first time or after pulling them off the market for the holidays.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/26/06

CITY	SOLD 11/26-12/26	ACTIVE 12/26	Absorption Rate as of 12/26/06	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	19	83	4.37 months	-0.28	Seller
Anthem	38	567	14.92	-1.36	Buyer
Avondale	109	786	7.21	-0.04	Buyer
Buckeye	74	752	10.16	-1.89	Buyer
Carefree	3	94	31.33	-16.17	Buyer
Cave Creek	38	471	12.39	0.86	Buyer
Chandler	330	1,834	5.56	-0.48	Buyer/Neutral
Desert Hills	14	177	12.64	-1.20	Buyer
El Mirage	54	348	6.44	-0.20	Buyer
Fountain Hills	38	377	9.92	-0.43	Buyer
Gilbert	312	1,998	6.40	-0.37	Buyer
Glendale	251	1,773	7.06	-0.10	Buyer
Goodyear	110	948	8.62	-1.81	Buyer
Laveen	59	377	6.39	-0.29	Buyer
Litchfield Park	34	376	11.06	-1.61	Buyer
Maricopa	67	748	11.16	-1.84	Buyer
Mesa	432	2,689	6.22	-0.22	Buyer
Paradise Valley	24	255	10.63	-1.71	Buyer
Peoria	181	1,565	8.65	-0.23	Buyer
Phoenix	1,162	6,547	5.63	0.03	Buyer
Queen Creek	150	1,610	10.73	0.32	Buyer
Scottsdale	311	2,834	9.11	-0.49	Buyer
Sun City	74	595	8.04	-0.15	Buyer
Sun City West	46	509	11.07	-0.29	Buyer
Surprise	195	1,967	10.09	-0.04	Buyer
Tempe	97	375	3.87	-0.32	Seller
Tolleson	29	271	9.34	-0.69	Buyer
Waddell	14	100	7.14	0.77	Buyer
TOTAL	4,179	30,193	7.22	-0.26	Buyer

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

I had planned on letting Bonnie enjoy the front page today. Then I took a look at the latest absorption rate numbers, through today. While the lower supply figures are due mostly to expiring inventory as the holidays approach, I'm not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Inventory has steadily dropped the past three months, leading to lower absorption rate figures.

And sales for the 30 days immediately past are comparable to totals for late November, a little surprising given the reduced interest as the winter solstice approaches.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/20/06

CITY	SOLD 11/19-12/19	ACTIVE 12/19	Absorption Rate as of 12/19/06	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	20	92	4.65 months	-1.35	Seller
Anthem	35	570	16.29	-1.93	Buyer
Avondale	110	798	7.25	-1.46	Buyer
Buckeye	62	747	12.05	-2.10	Buyer
Carefree	2	95	47.50	15.83	Buyer
Cave Creek	36	477	13.25	2.67	Buyer
Chandler	313	1,891	6.04	-0.34	Buyer
Desert Hills	13	180	13.85	-8.28	Buyer
El Mirage	54	359	6.65	-0.37	Buyer
Fountain Hills	37	383	10.35	-0.59	Buyer
Gilbert	301	2,040	6.78	-0.49	Buyer
Glendale	252	1,805	7.16	-0.23	Buyer
Goodyear	93	970	10.43	-0.21	Buyer
Laveen	57	381	6.68	-0.33	Buyer
Litchfield Park	30	380	12.67	0.76	Buyer
Maricopa	59	767	13.00	0.57	Buyer
Mesa	423	2,727	6.45	-0.59	Buyer
Paradise Valley	21	259	12.33	-0.77	Buyer
Peoria	182	1,616	8.88	-0.53	Buyer
Phoenix	1,190	6,664	5.60	-0.25	Buyer
Queen Creek	159	1,656	10.42	-0.08	Buyer
Scottsdale	302	2,900	9.60	-0.26	Buyer
Sun City	74	606	8.19	-0.34	Buyer
Sun City West	45	511	11.36	1.38	Buyer
Surprise	195	1,975	10.13	-0.15	Buyer
Tempe	92	385	4.18	-1.11	Seller
Tolleson	28	281	10.04	-2.36	Buyer
Waddell	16	102	6.48	-0.19	Buyer
TOTAL	4,111	30,777	7.49	-0.42	Buyer

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

For those of you new to the blog, I've been tracking absorption rate for single-family homes in Maricopa County and the individual cities therein since July. Absorption rate is a fancier name for the supply of homes - divide the number of active listings by the number of sales in a set time period and you've got your supply.

In my case, I've been tracking the sales and the absorption rate with a 30-day rolling average to provide a supply based in months. As we have seen for the last three weeks, inventory among single-family homes continues to fall though it's increasingly obvious the drop is due less to heavier sales than the inevitability of listings going inactive (cancelled, expired or taken off the market) for the holidays. This week we also see a decrease in sales, which is normal for this time of year, leading to an increased county-wide absorption rate.

A five-month supply of homes is considered the baseline for a balanced market between buyers and sellers. As you can see, we're well above that baseline with an oversupply of homes, leaving us in a continued buyers' market.

The big question remains: what will happen after the first of the year? If the market is flooded suddenly with additional inventory then we will be right back where we've been. If inventory remains lower than it has been, the market may have a chance to gain some traction for the first time in a year.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/27

CITY	SOLD 10/13-11/13	ACTIVE 11/13	Absorption Rate as of 11/13/06	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	15	102	6.80 months	-0.13	Buyer
Anthem	37	637	17.22	-1.12	Buyer
Avondale	105	877	8.35	0.04	Buyer
Buckeye	65	789	12.14	0.86	Buyer
Carefree	4	93	23.25	-8.08	Buyer
Cave Creek	53	505	9.53	0.12	Buyer
Chandler	276	2,062	7.47	0.31	Buyer
Desert Hills	8	169	21.13	-4.02	Buyer
El Mirage	54	376	6.96	-0.04	Buyer
Fountain Hills	28	410	14.64	-2.44	Buyer
Gilbert	273	2,222	8.14	0.15	Buyer
Glendale	252	1,960	7.78	0.87	Buyer
Goodyear	81	1,026	12.67	0.97	Buyer
Laveen	63	383	6.08	1.05	Buyer
Litchfield Park	35	404	11.54	-0.52	Buyer
Maricopa	74	770	10.41	-0.13	Buyer
Mesa	412	2,879	6.99	0.17	Buyer
Paradise Valley	23	265	11.52	1.89	Buyer
Peoria	163	1,682	10.32	0.70	Buyer
Phoenix	1,141	7,031	6.16	0.18	Buyer
Queen Creek	175	1,773	10.13	0.13	Buyer
Scottsdale	299	3,046	10.19	0.85	Buyer
Sun City	65	605	9.31	0.64	Buyer
Sun City West	40	503	12.58	0.43	Buyer
Surprise	203	2,102	10.35	0.73	Buyer
Tempe	80	428	5.35	0.38	Neutral
Tolleson	38	290	7.63	1.19	Buyer
Waddell	13	95	7.31	-1.28	Buyer
TOTAL	3,933	32,570	8.28	0.37	Buyer

Data provided by ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed


(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

A flurry of recent listings and a rush of buyers' activity has prevented me from posting the absorption rate numbers for the Phoenix area, though I've been tracking them steadily since the middle of July.

Here's this week's edition - as always, single-family homes only and all data provided by ARMLS. Also, I'll be posting back data for past weeks over the next few days and also backdating the posts. Those with an RSS feed likely will still see them pop up, but I won't be sending the back data to the mailing list. What's done is done, after all, but there's value in posting for posterity.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/07

CITY	SOLD 107-11/7	ACTIVE 11/7	Absorption Rate as of 11/7/06	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	11	107	9.73 months	-3.16	Buyer
Anthem	39	668	17.13	-3.17	Buyer
Avondale	122	960	7.87	-0.44	Buyer
Buckeye	68	823	12.10	-0.25	Buyer
Chandler	322	2,239	6.95	-1.38	Buyer
El Mirage	59	391	6.63	-1.49	Buyer
Fountain Hills	19	411	21.63	1.77	Buyer
Gilbert	271	2,338	8.63	-1.67	Buyer
Glendale	301	1,994	6.62	-1.10	Buyer
Goodyear	86	1,076	12.51	-1.26	Buyer
Laveen	80	380	4.75	-0.97	Seller
Litchfield Park	34	418	12.29	-0.43	Buyer
Maricopa	69	775	11.23	-0.34	Buyer
Mesa	455	2,965	6.52	-1.47	Buyer
Peoria	175	1,771	10.12	-1.84	Buyer
Phoenix	1,241	7,233	5.83	-0.94	Buyer/Neutral
Queen Creek	162	1,884	11.63	-3.17	Buyer
Scottsdale	316	3,059	9.68	-0.94	Buyer
Sun City	61	585	9.59	-3.21	Buyer
Sun City West	36	479	13.31	-0.69	Buyer
Surprise	206	2,169	10.53	-0.22	Buyer
Tempe	86	449	5.22	-1.41	Neutral
Tolleson	42	297	7.07	0.97	Buyer
Waddell	7	104	14.86	-13.14	Buyer
TOTAL	4,225	33,622	7.96	-1.27	Buyer

Also, by special request, I'll be tracking Cave Creek, Carefree, Desert Hills and Paradise Valley as of next week. Consider this a sneak preview: Cave Creek 10.36 months (50 sales/518 actives), Carefree 23.5 months (4/94), Desert Hills 22.6 months (8/181) and Paradise Valley 10.58 (24/254).

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

After wading through nearly 100 expired listings in Glendale, Peoria and Surprise on Wednesday and Thursday I decided to check the absorption rate figures for single-family homes in Maricopa County. On Monday there was a 9-plus month supply of homes. By last night that figure had dropped to 7.65, a fairly decent drop.

The main reason for the decline is almost certainly the listings that expired earlier this week; there were around 1,000 fewer homes on the market last night than Monday. Still, the statistics I've tracked have crossed other first days of the months and there has yet to be as large a drop in the inventory. More significantly, the entire point of tracking the absorption rate is to place current housing inventory levels into some sort of perspective. And looking at this way, it really doesn't matter what caused the decline in inventory. It only matters that the inventory is down.

Will it rise to previous levels? Maybe, maybe not. With the holidays coming up it's fairly common to see properties taken off the market. In fact, the last listing I took included language that specifies the home will be off the market from December 18 through January 2. But even if it's a one- or two-week anomaly, any signs of shrinking inventory can only be positive.

In two other notes from other blogs ...

My wife will be happy to learn I'm not a curmudgeon after all, at least by Pat's definition at Transparent Real Estate.

And lastly, Russell Shaw has entered the Phoenix Arizona blogging arena on Voldemort's blog. When someone sells as many homes as Russell has over the past couple of decades, it's always interesting to see what he might have to say.

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes