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Phoenix Real Estate Stats through 12/26

Dec. 27, 2006
The supply of homes continued to fall over the past week, with sales for the past 30 days holding roughly steady if not slightly higher. I'm expecting to see the supply trend change within the first two weeks of the new year as owners prepare to put their homes on the market, either for the first time or after pulling them off the market for the holidays.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/26/06
CITY SOLD 11/26-12/26 ACTIVE 12/26 Absorption Rate
as of 12/26/06
Change Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee 19 83 4.37 months -0.28 Seller
Anthem 38 567 14.92 -1.36 Buyer
Avondale 109 786 7.21 -0.04 Buyer
Buckeye 74 752 10.16 -1.89 Buyer
Carefree 3 94 31.33  -16.17 Buyer
Cave Creek 38 471 12.39  0.86 Buyer
Chandler 330 1,834 5.56 -0.48 Buyer/Neutral
Desert Hills 14 177 12.64  -1.20
Buyer
El Mirage 54 348 6.44 -0.20 Buyer
Fountain Hills 38 377 9.92 -0.43
Buyer
Gilbert 312 1,998 6.40 -0.37 Buyer
Glendale 251 1,773 7.06 -0.10 Buyer
Goodyear 110 948 8.62 -1.81 Buyer
Laveen 59 377 6.39 -0.29 Buyer
Litchfield Park 34 376 11.06 -1.61 Buyer
Maricopa 67 748 11.16 -1.84 Buyer
Mesa 432 2,689 6.22 -0.22 Buyer
Paradise Valley 24 255 10.63  -1.71 Buyer
Peoria 181 1,565 8.65 -0.23 Buyer
Phoenix 1,162 6,547 5.63 0.03 Buyer
Queen Creek 150 1,610 10.73 0.32 Buyer
Scottsdale 311 2,834 9.11 -0.49 Buyer
Sun City 74 595 8.04 -0.15 Buyer
Sun City West 46 509 11.07 -0.29 Buyer
Surprise 195 1,967 10.09 -0.04 Buyer
Tempe 97 375 3.87 -0.32 Seller
Tolleson 29 271 9.34 -0.69 Buyer
Waddell 14 100 7.14 0.77 Buyer
TOTAL 4,179 30,193 7.22 -0.26 Buyer


(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

Phoenix Real Estate Market Stats through 12/19

Dec. 19, 2006
I had planned on letting Bonnie enjoy the front page today. Then I took a look at the latest absorption rate numbers, through today. While the lower supply figures are due mostly to expiring inventory as the holidays approach, I'm not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Inventory has steadily dropped the past three months, leading to lower absorption rate figures.

And sales for the 30 days immediately past are comparable to totals for late November, a little surprising given the reduced interest as the winter solstice approaches.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 12/20/06
CITY SOLD 11/19-12/19 ACTIVE 12/19 Absorption Rate
as of 12/19/06
Change Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee 20 92 4.65 months -1.35 Seller
Anthem 35 570 16.29 -1.93 Buyer
Avondale 110 798 7.25 -1.46 Buyer
Buckeye 62 747 12.05 -2.10 Buyer
Carefree 2 95 47.50  15.83 Buyer
Cave Creek 36 477 13.25  2.67 Buyer
Chandler 313 1,891 6.04 -0.34 Buyer
Desert Hills 13 180 13.85  -8.28
Buyer
El Mirage 54 359 6.65 -0.37 Buyer
Fountain Hills 37 383 10.35 -0.59
Buyer
Gilbert 301 2,040 6.78 -0.49 Buyer
Glendale 252 1,805 7.16 -0.23 Buyer
Goodyear 93 970 10.43 -0.21 Buyer
Laveen 57 381 6.68 -0.33 Buyer
Litchfield Park 30 380 12.67 0.76 Buyer
Maricopa 59 767 13.00 0.57 Buyer
Mesa 423 2,727 6.45 -0.59 Buyer
Paradise Valley 21 259 12.33  -0.77 Buyer
Peoria 182 1,616 8.88 -0.53 Buyer
Phoenix 1,190 6,664 5.60 -0.25 Buyer
Queen Creek 159 1,656 10.42 -0.08 Buyer
Scottsdale 302 2,900 9.60 -0.26 Buyer
Sun City 74 606 8.19 -0.34 Buyer
Sun City West 45 511 11.36 1.38 Buyer
Surprise 195 1,975 10.13 -0.15 Buyer
Tempe 92 385 4.18 -1.11 Seller
Tolleson 28 281 10.04 -2.36 Buyer
Waddell 16 102 6.48 -0.19 Buyer
TOTAL 4,111 30,777 7.49 -0.42 Buyer


(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

Phoenix Arizona Market Statistics through 11/27

Nov. 27, 2006
For those of you new to the blog, I've been tracking absorption rate for single-family homes in Maricopa County and the individual cities therein since July. Absorption rate is a fancier name for the supply of homes - divide the number of active listings by the number of sales in a set time period and you've got your supply.

In my case, I've been tracking the sales and the absorption rate with a 30-day rolling average to provide a supply based in months. As we have seen for the last three weeks, inventory among single-family homes continues to fall though it's increasingly obvious the drop is due less to heavier sales than the inevitability of listings going inactive (cancelled, expired or taken off the market) for the holidays. This week we also see a decrease in sales, which is normal for this time of year, leading to an increased county-wide absorption rate.

A five-month supply of homes is considered the baseline for a balanced market between buyers and sellers. As you can see, we're well above that baseline with an oversupply of homes, leaving us in a continued buyers' market.

The big question remains: what will happen after the first of the year? If the market is flooded suddenly with additional inventory then we will be right back where we've been. If inventory remains lower than it has been, the market may have a chance to gain some traction for the first time in a year.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/27
CITY SOLD 10/13-11/13 ACTIVE 11/13 Absorption Rate
as of 11/13/06
Change Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee 15 102 6.80 months -0.13 Buyer
Anthem 37 637 17.22 -1.12 Buyer
Avondale 105 877 8.35 0.04 Buyer
Buckeye 65 789 12.14 0.86 Buyer
Carefree 4 93 23.25 -8.08 Buyer
Cave Creek 53 505 9.53 0.12 Buyer
Chandler 276 2,062 7.47 0.31 Buyer
Desert Hills 8 169 21.13 -4.02 Buyer
El Mirage 54 376 6.96 -0.04 Buyer
Fountain Hills 28 410 14.64 -2.44 Buyer
Gilbert 273 2,222 8.14 0.15 Buyer
Glendale 252 1,960 7.78 0.87 Buyer
Goodyear 81 1,026 12.67 0.97 Buyer
Laveen 63 383 6.08 1.05 Buyer
Litchfield Park 35 404 11.54 -0.52 Buyer
Maricopa 74 770 10.41 -0.13 Buyer
Mesa 412 2,879 6.99 0.17 Buyer
Paradise Valley 23 265 11.52 1.89 Buyer
Peoria 163 1,682 10.32 0.70 Buyer
Phoenix 1,141 7,031 6.16 0.18 Buyer
Queen Creek 175 1,773 10.13 0.13 Buyer
Scottsdale 299 3,046 10.19 0.85 Buyer
Sun City 65 605 9.31 0.64 Buyer
Sun City West 40 503 12.58 0.43 Buyer
Surprise 203 2,102 10.35 0.73 Buyer
Tempe 80 428 5.35 0.38 Neutral
Tolleson 38 290 7.63 1.19 Buyer
Waddell 13 95 7.31 -1.28 Buyer
TOTAL 3,933 32,570 8.28 0.37 Buyer
Data provided by ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed


(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes

Phoenix Real Estate Market stats thru 11/13

Nov. 13, 2006
Categorized in: Phoenix market stats
Back on schedule with the update, and should be able to stay on schedule now that I found a somewhat quick method of posting all of the information. There were slight downticks in the absorption rate in the bulk of cities I track, but a slight uptick in the Maricopa County absorption rate despite a decline in active listings. Why? Fewer sold listings. Expect that trend of decreasing inventory and decreased sales to continue through year's end, though at least in my office I'm seeing more sales than I'd normally expect in November.

NOTE: You may notice I've added Carefree, Cave Creek, Desert Hills and Paradise Valley to the tracking. We'll have something for the change field next week on these four cities. I tried adding Guadalupe but there were no active listings.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/13
CITY SOLD 10/13-11/13 ACTIVE 11/13 Absorption Rate
as of 11/13/06
Change Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee 15 107 7.13 months -2.59 Buyer
Anthem 36 664 18.44 1.32 Buyer
Avondale 122 923 7.57 -0.30 Buyer
Buckeye 68 807 11.87 -0.24 Buyer
Carefree 3 95 31.67   Buyer
Cave Creek 50 513 10.26   Buyer
Chandler 303 2,219 7.32 0.37 Buyer
Desert Hills 7 179 25.57   Buyer
El Mirage 56 386 6.89 0.27 Buyer
Fountain Hills 24 410 17.08 -4.55 Buyer
Gilbert 271 2,312 8.53 -0.10 Buyer
Glendale 298 1,996 6.70 0.07 Buyer
Goodyear 91 1,073 11.79 -0.72 Buyer
Laveen 83 382 4.60 -0.15 Seller
Litchfield Park 35 411 11.74 -0.55 Buyer
Maricopa 68 800 11.76 0.53 Buyer
Mesa 454 2,971 6.54 0.03 Buyer
Paradise Valley 22 256 11.64   Buyer
Peoria 160 1,735 10.84 0.72 Buyer
Phoenix 1,196 7,190 6.01 0.18 Buyer
Queen Creek 160 1,833 11.46 -0.17 Buyer
Scottsdale 320 3,064 9.58 -0.11 Buyer
Sun City 57 588 10.32 0.73 Buyer
Sun City West 36 489 13.58 0.28 Buyer
Surprise 215 2,158 10.04 -0.49 Buyer
Tempe 87 454 5.22 None Neutral
Tolleson 46 292 6.35 -0.72 Buyer
Waddell 10 102 10.20 -4.66 Buyer
TOTAL 4,162 33,435 8.03 0.08 Buyer



(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton\'s Arizona Homes

Phoenix Arizona market stats thru 11/7

Nov. 7, 2006
Categorized in: Phoenix market stats
Tagged with: absorption rate
A flurry of recent listings and a rush of buyers' activity has prevented me from posting the absorption rate numbers for the Phoenix area, though I've been tracking them steadily since the middle of July.

Here's this week's edition - as always, single-family homes only and all data provided by ARMLS. Also, I'll be posting back data for past weeks over the next few days and also backdating the posts. Those with an RSS feed likely will still see them pop up, but I won't be sending the back data to the mailing list. What's done is done, after all, but there's value in posting for posterity.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/07
CITY SOLD 107-11/7 ACTIVE 11/7 Absorption Rate
as of 11/7/06
Change Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee 11 107 9.73 months -3.16 Buyer
Anthem 39 668 17.13 -3.17 Buyer
Avondale 122 960 7.87 -0.44 Buyer
Buckeye 68 823 12.10 -0.25 Buyer
Chandler 322 2,239 6.95 -1.38 Buyer
El Mirage 59 391 6.63 -1.49 Buyer
Fountain Hills 19 411 21.63 1.77 Buyer
Gilbert 271 2,338 8.63 -1.67 Buyer
Glendale 301 1,994 6.62 -1.10 Buyer
Goodyear 86 1,076 12.51 -1.26 Buyer
Laveen 80 380 4.75 -0.97 Seller
Litchfield Park 34 418 12.29 -0.43 Buyer
Maricopa 69 775 11.23 -0.34 Buyer
Mesa 455 2,965 6.52 -1.47 Buyer
Peoria 175 1,771 10.12 -1.84 Buyer
Phoenix 1,241 7,233 5.83 -0.94 Buyer/Neutral
Queen Creek 162 1,884 11.63 -3.17 Buyer
Scottsdale 316 3,059 9.68 -0.94 Buyer
Sun City 61 585 9.59 -3.21 Buyer
Sun City West 36 479 13.31 -0.69 Buyer
Surprise 206 2,169 10.53 -0.22 Buyer
Tempe 86 449 5.22 -1.41 Neutral
Tolleson 42 297 7.07 0.97 Buyer
Waddell 7 104 14.86 -13.14 Buyer
TOTAL 4,225 33,622 7.96 -1.27 Buyer

Also, by special request, I'll be tracking Cave Creek, Carefree, Desert Hills and Paradise Valley as of next week. Consider this a sneak preview: Cave Creek 10.36 months (50 sales/518 actives), Carefree 23.5 months (4/94), Desert Hills 22.6 months (8/181) and Paradise Valley 10.58 (24/254).

(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes