Nov. 27, 2006 - Phoenix Arizona Market Statistics through 11/27 |
For those of you new to the blog, I've been tracking absorption rate for single-family homes in Maricopa County and the individual cities therein since July. Absorption rate is a fancier name for the supply of homes - divide the number of active listings by the number of sales in a set time period and you've got your supply.
In my case, I've been tracking the sales and the absorption rate with a 30-day rolling average to provide a supply based in months. As we have seen for the last three weeks, inventory among single-family homes continues to fall though it's increasingly obvious the drop is due less to heavier sales than the inevitability of listings going inactive (cancelled, expired or taken off the market) for the holidays. This week we also see a decrease in sales, which is normal for this time of year, leading to an increased county-wide absorption rate.
A five-month supply of homes is considered the baseline for a balanced market between buyers and sellers. As you can see, we're well above that baseline with an oversupply of homes, leaving us in a continued buyers' market.
The big question remains: what will happen after the first of the year? If the market is flooded suddenly with additional inventory then we will be right back where we've been. If inventory remains lower than it has been, the market may have a chance to gain some traction for the first time in a year.
Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market stats through 11/27
| CITY |
SOLD 10/13-11/13 |
ACTIVE 11/13 |
Absorption Rate
as of 11/13/06 |
Change |
Buyer/Seller |
| Ahwatukee |
15 |
102 |
6.80 months |
-0.13 |
Buyer |
| Anthem |
37 |
637 |
17.22 |
-1.12 |
Buyer |
| Avondale |
105 |
877 |
8.35 |
0.04 |
Buyer |
| Buckeye |
65 |
789 |
12.14 |
0.86 |
Buyer |
| Carefree |
4 |
93 |
23.25 |
-8.08 |
Buyer |
| Cave Creek |
53 |
505 |
9.53 |
0.12 |
Buyer |
| Chandler |
276 |
2,062 |
7.47 |
0.31 |
Buyer |
| Desert Hills |
8 |
169 |
21.13 |
-4.02 |
Buyer |
| El Mirage |
54 |
376 |
6.96 |
-0.04 |
Buyer |
| Fountain Hills |
28 |
410 |
14.64 |
-2.44 |
Buyer |
| Gilbert |
273 |
2,222 |
8.14 |
0.15 |
Buyer |
| Glendale |
252 |
1,960 |
7.78 |
0.87 |
Buyer |
| Goodyear |
81 |
1,026 |
12.67 |
0.97 |
Buyer |
| Laveen |
63 |
383 |
6.08 |
1.05 |
Buyer |
| Litchfield Park |
35 |
404 |
11.54 |
-0.52 |
Buyer |
| Maricopa |
74 |
770 |
10.41 |
-0.13 |
Buyer |
| Mesa |
412 |
2,879 |
6.99 |
0.17 |
Buyer |
| Paradise Valley |
23 |
265 |
11.52 |
1.89 |
Buyer |
| Peoria |
163 |
1,682 |
10.32 |
0.70 |
Buyer |
| Phoenix |
1,141 |
7,031 |
6.16 |
0.18 |
Buyer |
| Queen Creek |
175 |
1,773 |
10.13 |
0.13 |
Buyer |
| Scottsdale |
299 |
3,046 |
10.19 |
0.85 |
Buyer |
| Sun City |
65 |
605 |
9.31 |
0.64 |
Buyer |
| Sun City West |
40 |
503 |
12.58 |
0.43 |
Buyer |
| Surprise |
203 |
2,102 |
10.35 |
0.73 |
Buyer |
| Tempe |
80 |
428 |
5.35 |
0.38 |
Neutral |
| Tolleson |
38 |
290 |
7.63 |
1.19 |
Buyer |
| Waddell |
13 |
95 |
7.31 |
-1.28 |
Buyer |
| TOTAL |
3,933 |
32,570 |
8.28 |
0.37 |
Buyer |
Data provided by ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed
(c) Jonathan Dalton, 2006 / Jonathan Dalton's Arizona Homes
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