Two weeks ago, I spent the weekend with a couple relocating to the Valley. Yesterday I received an e-mail that said that while they still are moving, after researching recent news reports, they have decided they're going to rent rather than buy because they don't want to "make a mistake."
Many real-estate speculators (not investors ... investors tend to purchase for the long haul, not buy a property and hope to flip it six months later for a quick buck) have moved to areas where the prices haven't yet appreciated. Texas appears to be the next hot place to look, as prices in many metro areas there have been stagnant for years.
The media tends to focus on these trends and overlook what the long-term market conditions are for the rest of us, those who will be in their homes for longer than a year or so.
(And keep in mind, this isn't idle media bashing. I was a reporter for a decade -- still write as a free-lance sportswriter to this day -- and I'm aware of how much most reports know about the topics on which they right. Usually, it's enough to sound fairly authoritative but far less than an actual expert would know. To write, expertise isn't required. Just good writing skills.)
Most predictions from the real-estate experts I've seen call for a modest 3 - 5% increase in sales prices this year. While that's a far cry from last year's 30 - 50% gains, it's a gain nevertheless.
So in waiting a year, in trying to time the market, buyers could reasonably expect to spend 3 - 5% more a year from now.
But let's say the market remains flat for the next year. Does that mean the bottom line will be better for buyers? No. As many of you have noticed, interest rates have been climbing as well. So in gambling on a stable or lowered sales price a year out, a buyer also runs the risk of higher payments due to higher interest rates.
I spent eight years at a major brokerage firm disabusing clients of the notion of market timing. Every major study of attempting to predict and "time" the market for purchases and sales showed a longer-term hold would produce better results.
And now the same concept is coming to real estate, both to the investors but also to buyers whose timelines suggest they should do anything but try and predict the future of home prices.
For more information about the Phoenix Arizona Real Estate market, visit my comprehensive website at http://www.DaltonsAzHomes.com! | 
