“How is the real estate market in Val Vista Lakes?” This question is asked almost daily by residents, and for good reason. The local media have made a cottage industry out of covering every aspect of real estate… Headlines scream of both record prices and of impending doom for the housing industry. What really is going on right here in Val Vista Lakes? Well, let’s look at history for a bit. From about 1994 to early 2004, prices of homes here in Val Vista Lakes rose by about 6-8% per year. In early 2004, this changed. Investors came into the metro Phoenix market in huge numbers. Prices rose quickly, up to 35% or more. For 12-15 months, the market became a lopsided, seller-controlled market. Buyers outnumbered sellers 3:1, 4:1, 5:1, even more at some price points. Then, in summer 2005, the investors left. Home prices were much higher, but now sales were beginning to return to a normal pace. Over the winter of 2005/06, sellers were learning that the robust market was gone. Buyers seemed to pick up on this fact very quickly!

Val Vista Lakes is not a carbon copy of the rest of the local market – no place is, actually. We enjoy a premier location, a stable HOA, and an incredible set of common facilities. Very few other associations have what we do… For these reasons, our real estate numbers are a bit better than the rest of the PHX metro area. We have had around 65-75 homes sell & close escrow during the first half of 2006. The average sales price has risen to $450,000. Condos are selling in the low $200’s, and waterfront homes are all over $500k. The one common market statistic is Days On Market… Up dramatically, to over 75 days now. Buyers currently have over 60 homes to choose from. This is not out of line historically, but does underscore the need for sellers to have every advantage on their side to attract buyers. Unlike the heyday of ’04-’05, offers are now measured by how much below list price they are written. Strong, but fair, negotiating skills are in high demand once again. Experienced listing agents are using a full set of marketing tools, including virtual tours, full color fliers, and toll free phone numbers. “Staging” of homes has come back into vogue. In short, this is a strong buyers’ market. It’s a great time to be a buyer moving into Val Vista Lakes… C’mon in! The water’s fine!

Val Vista Lakes 2005 Year End Review

Well, another year in the books! How has Val Vista Lakes fared this past year? What market forces were in play, and how did these forces affect Val Vista Lakes?

The saying all real estate is local is proven true by the recent run-up of market values in the Phoenix area. The wave of investor buyers quickly swept into Arizona in early 2004, and left just as quickly in mid 2005. During that 15-18 month time frame, real estate values were pushed to record highs each week, ending 40-60% higher. This is great news for most folks, as they now have much more equity in their homes. One of the downsides of this run-up is that many homes are now either empty of have become rentals. Quite a few of the empty homes are also back on the market, as rents are not strong enough to make the investments math out, and the owner has chosen to try to sell at the now much higher price.

Here in Val Vista Lakes, we saw a severe lack of available listings at the start of 2005, with most homes selling in under 10 days, with multiple offers. By the summer of 2005, the number of homes ON the market had grown to over 20, and by December 2005, there are over 35 homes on the market. This latter number is close to market norms. Sales of homes in Val Vista Lakes was slightly below record levels – the Multiple Listing Service shows 134 actual sales, and there are estimated to be another 30-35 that were not recorded into the MLS database. This reflects a continued strong desire by home purchasers to live in Val Vista Lakes. Many of the buyers start out renting here, and choose to stay – having a great school & well run clubhouse will do that.

In raw numbers, the sales range from 125k to 232k for the condos, and the detached homes range from 220k to just over 1 million. The average price is 392k, including the condos – higher if we do not include them. The price per square foot ranges from around $120/foot to over $200/foot. A word of caution here – price per foot is a difficult tool to use by itself. It should be used only with the rest of the data that is available.

Looking into the future, we see Val Vista Lakes continuing to evolve and to maintain itself as a highly desirable community. The new signage gives the clubhouse a fresh identity, and as homeowners re-paint their places with tasteful two-tone color schemes, the neighborhoods are brought up in appearance. The first homes built in VVL are now 20 years old, yet the overall feel is of a much younger community. To be sure, there are challenges ahead, but we have a solid HOA board & staff, adequate reserves, and a sterling reputation in the larger SouthEast Valley. Val Vista Lakes will continue to shine brightly!

Patrick Harfst is a 17 year resident of Val Vista Lakes. He and his family live in The Harbour.

and ready or not, it's here! I expect it to be a year of change - more so than 2005, which was an extension of 2004. In our market, we are just now waking up to see that the "balance" has returned. We had a 15 month "Realtor Happy Hour", and now it's time to get back to work. For many folks, this is new stuff. Imagine, having to actually work to create sales! Should be fun to watch!