From The Political and Financial Markets Commentary at http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com

Some Quick Economic Statistics To Use At Cocktail Parties

Just Days Before The Election, What's Going On?

In about 5 days we are going to know who our new president is, and have a better idea of the direction that our fiscal policy is going to head in. Higher taxes, lower taxes, higher taxes for the rich (if earning above $250 K is considered rich), more drilling, less drilling, more green, less green, more government, less government, etc.

How the markets will react to the eventual winner will start to be apparent on Wednesday morning, or even on Tuesday afternoon as the exit polling kicks into high gear. That being said, what we can say for now is that we have endured an enormous amount of trauma the past months, and that at least for now things seem to have stabilized somewhat.

Cocktail Party Talk

With the weekend upon us, it is important to look at some of the key indicators so that as we go off to our smart dinner parties or the local gin mill or just hang out at home we have some idea of what is going on out there.

The 3 month LIBOR rate had about a .25% drop into Thursday bringing it below 3.2%, and the TED Spread continued to improve with an afternoon level of 2.76.

The VIX, always a big topic among friends remains at very high levels relatively, but far off of the highs that approached 90. While normalcy used to be in the high teens, low 20's, things seem absolutely tranquil at 67.5.

Commodity prices as measured by the CRB Index has fallen from 474 on July 3 to the current level of 268, off the low of 253 set just 3 days ago. While this is good in terms of lower raw material costs, it is bad in that it is a further indication of what we already know. We are in a recession.

Speaking of recession, the GDP news on Thursday was that the economy was at an annual rate of negative .3% . Most people did not need this report to tip them off. Ironically, the National Bureau of Economic Research has not yet decided as to when they would declare recession.

Crude, which had been an albatross around our necks a very short time ago close to $150 a barrel, has provided the equivalent of a tax cut falling to the current level of about $65 a barrel.

Hope this helps. Have a great weekend.