Las Vegas - Clark County MLS Week Ended Analysis 4/26/2009

For the week just ended there were 28,671 listings on the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR) Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The supply of single family homes on the market inched down again last week now standing at 22,668. Of those 14,079 or 62% are vacant. There are 4,293 condominiums listed for sale with slightly more than 69% vacant; and 68% of the 1,710 townhouses listed are vacant.

As of 9:00 a.m. the system had reported 556 closings for the week.Based upon a 4-week moving average of closings there are now 12 months supply of all product types listed for sale.

If you take the single family listings and remove the 3,269 pending transactions and the 5,790 contingent (inspections, short sale approval, financing, etc.) transactions there are 8.1 months of single family inventory on the market. Not the best it has been but certainly far from the worst amount of supply we have experienced.

Short Sale/REO Listings

There are 10,297 listings identified as short sales and 10,818 listings that are characterized as bank owned or REO (real estate owned), for the sake of brevity. Slightly more than 35% of the short sale listings are under contract while 56% of the REO listings are currently under contract. The number of RE properties has been declining slightly since February when certain foreclosure moratoriums were enacted by Fannie & Freddie as well as some of the larger loan holders. There have also been a few auctions since the beginning of the year that has whittled the supply down somehwat.

Now that the moratoriums are over and the reported of delinquencies and defaults are reported at record highs I would assume that the number of REOs will increase, possibly dramatically, continuing the downward pressure on sales prices that has been nearly relentless for the last 2 years.

Another factor that is difficult to guage but is certainly a factor not to overlook is the number of 'normal' home owners, both owner-occupants and investors, who may rush the exits once the number of REOs starts to decline. Depending upon individual circumstances this pent up supply may continue to depress the market for some time. While only time will tell, you could project that there will be another 10-month supply of 'normal' sellers waiting i the wings based upon the percentage of 'normal' listings in August 2008 when nearly 1 in 4 listings were not short sales or REO listings. Of course, those normal listings may be what has primarily turned into the short sale and REO listings.