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Create A BlogLas Vegas Metro April MLS Analysis |
May. 15, 2009
General Overview of the April 2009 Multiple Listing Service data for Las Vegas Metro:
Most of the graphs we do every month will be included in this report at the end as usual and can be downloaded by following the link at the end of the report, however, due to the volume of work we currently have underway this narrative will be somewhat truncated.
We have also started a “week ended” report posted on our website’s Market Analysis Blog (last tab on the left side) every Monday afternoon that is redundant somewhat with the first portion of this analysis.
April continued to show some outstanding sales figures with 3,119 single family transactions. Sales increased a healthy 7%% over March (2,903) and a whopping 70% over April 2008 (1,829). As I said last month this just highlights how dismal 2008 was in terms of resale activity.
For the week just ended (May 3, 2009) there were 27,980 listings on the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR) Multiple Listing Service (MLS); down nearly 2.5% from last week. There was a decline in all categories of product: single family, condo & townhouse. The supply of single family homes on the market is now standing at 22,124. Of those 13,609 or 61.5% are vacant. There are 4,204 condominiums listed for sale with slightly more than 69% vacant; and 67.5% of the 1,652 townhouses listed are vacant.
As of 9:00 a.m. the system had reported a strong 787 single family closings for the week. While the last week of the month is always strong that figure is the best week’s closings since October 5, 2008 (last week of September) Based upon a 4-week moving average of closings there are now a little more than 8 months supply of all product types listed for sale.
If you take the single family listings and remove the 3,190 pending transactions and the 5,901 contingent (inspections, short sale approval, financing, etc.) transactions there are 5.6 months of single family inventory on the market. Since spiking earlier in the year the trend in supply has been down and is a good sign the market might be returning to a more normal cycle of strong 1st and 2nd quarter sales.
While the nominal prices of properties sold, along with the value ratio (price per square foot), continues to decline the increased sales overall and greater percentage of REOs and Short Sales under contract seem to be positive indicators for the market. Especially considering the hammering the local economy appears to be taking on jobs and the other leading indicators as published by Center for Business & Economic Research at UNLV (http://cber.unlv.edu/publications.html). CBER just released their latest indices and I will quote Dr. Schwer:
The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Indicators (SNILI) shows no sign of a turn
up that would signal the likelihood of a recovery from the current recession. We see no
stop in the steep decline observed over the past year. Each data series used in building
the index but two shows double-digit negative percentage change over a year ago. We
anticipate a bottoming and turn up in the SNILI six months before the recession comes to
an end.
R. Keith Schwer
My emphasis added.
We slice & dice the data every month and compare it to the previous year as well as the prior month and there are many interesting insights we find in various submarkets. We are finding that the percentage of transactions involving homes built prior to 1980 is increasing and when you remove those transactions from the ‘mix’ the averages do not look quite so bleak.
|
Price
|
Average
|
Median
|
COE
|
REO Median
|
Median YoY
|
|
Jan-2008
|
$308,893
|
$250,000
|
1,016
|
||
|
Feb-2008
|
$298,699
|
$247,950
|
1,162
|
||
|
Mar-2008
|
$305,043
|
$245,000
|
1,554
|
||
|
Apr-2008
|
$284,941
|
$235,750
|
1,829
|
||
|
May-2008
|
$257,272
|
$218,000
|
2,266
|
||
|
Jun-2008
|
$267,842
|
$225,000
|
2,306
|
||
|
Jul-2008
|
$253,130
|
$220,000
|
2,685
|
||
|
Aug-2008
|
$249,229
|
$210,000
|
2,510
|
||
|
Sep-2008
|
$231,364
|
$194,900
|
2,728
|
||
|
Oct-2008
|
$226,514
|
$193,500
|
2,604
|
||
|
Nov-2008
|
$215,241
|
$186,000
|
2,130
|
$176,400
|
|
|
Dec-2008
|
$204,442
|
$175,000
|
2,429
|
$163,900
|
-7.1%
|
|
Jan-2009
|
$187,236
|
$161,000
|
2,051
|
$152,000
|
-7.3%
|
|
Feb-2009
|
$182,772
|
$156,947
|
2,236
|
$145,000
|
-4.6%
|
|
Mar-2009
|
$174,321
|
$149,900
|
2,903
|
$139,900
|
-3.5%
|
|
Apr-2009
|
$166,658
|
$142,000
|
3,119
|
$128,000
|
-5.3%
|
This shows the overall median sales price declining another 5% for April’s transactions but the REO transaction median sales price declined an outstanding 8.5% for the month. I started out in this industry during the downturn created by skyrocketing interest rates in 1979 and have experienced other downturns over the decades but the current, and continuing, rate of decline is just staggering.
|
Price/S.F.
|
Average
|
Median
|
Median Delta
|
|
Jan-2008
|
$143.89
|
$135.00
|
|
|
Feb-2008
|
$137.88
|
$130.50
|
-3.3%
|
|
Mar-2008
|
$136.94
|
$129.00
|
-1.5%
|
|
Apr-2008
|
$130.90
|
$124.00
|
-3.9%
|
|
May-2008
|
$119.00
|
$114.00
|
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