In a follow up to our past posting - Kill the Messengers - in which the doom-and-gloom handwringing about the market was proved to be a myth (if you use a scientific method rather than bumbling assumptions) the National Association of REALTORS today posted their latest Pending Home Sales Index numbers. And the news is (drumroll please): The market this year is exactly where it was in 2001, the year the index started.

Let's look at the facts:

2007
Jan 108.5
Feb 109.7
Mar 104.8
Apr 101.2
May 97.5
Jun 102.4
Jul r 91.4
Aug p 85.5

That averages out to 100.1. An even showing with the index when it started in 2001.

So, yes, the market is down from the last month (July) and down over last year (about 20%) but that's entirely irrelevant. Why? Because hardly anyone buys and sells real estate on a monthly - or annual basis. Investors and flippers aside, the average person buys and lives in their house for 4-6 years. So, let's go back 4-6 years and we find: the market is in about the same place it was then, adjusted for margins of error.

Now, if you don't account for the CHEAP MONEY POLICIES of the Fed in the years 2004-2006, and the fact that it created an ENTIRELY ARTIFICIAL SURGE in property values, you have to conclude: Not so bad! Why? Because 2001 was a very good year. Once again, here's NAR's explanation of their own index:

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be analyzed. Coincidentally, 2001 was the first of four consecutive record years for existing-home sales. 2001 sales are fairly close to the higher level of home sales expected in the coming decade relative to the norms experienced in the mid-1990s. As such, an index of 100 coincides with a historically high level of home sales activity. [Bold added for emphasis.]

Imagine that? Today's just like 2001, which was a "historically high level of home sales activity." The market is healthy. Working. Historically High.

So what's the problem? Why can't REALTORS sell more homes? Why is there stagnant inventory? Why are brokers going BROKE even though the market is about ths "same" as a historically high market in 2001?

The answer is simple: Nothing has changed. Just like the Index.

That's right: The market hasn't changed since 2001. And neither has brokerage. It's still as broken as always. Newspaper ads are still killing budgets. Agents remain largely untrained in prospecting techniques and data management. Photos online are shockingly awful. And managers continue to let the lunatics run the asylum. Sure, technology gives the industry a "glossy look" - a "sheen" of change. But it's mostly smoke in mirrors, if you know how to read a P&L.

As they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same. And that's where we are for today - in a historically high market where, somehow, most REALTORS can't seem to make money.

Imagine that!