Mar. 10, 2008 - FALMOUTH 15 YEAR HOME VALUES

Falmouth Home Values - the Last 15 Years
That was quite a ride from 1998 to 2004 and very profitable for those that hung-in following 8-10 sluggish years beginning in 1989.  Those that purchased at the top of the market in the late  80's couldn't sell since the market value fell below the cost of their homes.  That problem exists today causing so many homes to be overpriced, a glut of homes for sale and a market slowdown . 

How then should one proceed?  Answer: by learning to become a smart homebuyer.  Real estate is a business and homebuyers should take a business approach when buying a home.  Study the market and learn its cyclical patterns.  This chart only covers 15 years, but go back another 15 to 1978 and you will be able to see the beginning of the early 80's housing boom followed by a slowdown, followed by another surge, then the collapse in 1989-1990, all very cyclical.

Understanding the cyclical nature of the market may teach you to be cautious of a "hot market." to buy with care when prices get too high and avoid a buying frenzy.  On the other hand, it's an art to sense when the market it getting near the bottom, because that can be a great time to buy.  In either case, the real estate market may have risen or fallen by a couple months before buyers are aware and opportunities could be lost. 

To conclude, todays lowering prices are pointing towards the best time to buy and smart homebuyers will take advantage of the opportunities available.  But then, they have learned to do so in all markets. For more information, please contact me at dfkelley@pair.com. - DAVID

Mar. 4, 2008 - Falmouth Home Sales - 15 Years

This is What Happened in Falmouth the past 15 years*
This chart shows a pattern influenced by factors which can vary from year to year.  Of interest 
is that changes seem to occur in 3 year patterns as shown by the red lines which now puts 2008 at the beginning of a new cycle.  Which way will it go and what factors are at work now?   Hopefully this chart will give you something to work with as you do your own research into the current market

Of interest are the 651 sales made in 1998 at a time when home prices were still reasonable.  At one time that year 100 homes were for sale priced under 90K.  With the same homes now valued around 250K now, it seems unlikely that 651 sales will be reached again with everything priced so much higher.

Lastly, FYI the number of homes for sale are getting smaller from a high of 521 at one time in
2006 to about 385 now.  The average in 2004 while the market was still hot was 221.  For buyers that means less confusion, but also less opportunity as we get closer to a sellers market.  If you have
any questions or want more information, please contact me at dfkelley@pair.com. - DAVID

*These are the single family homes sales by realtors as recorded in the Multiple Listing
Service which represents over 85% of total sales.  

Nov. 10, 2007 - SALES UP - PRICES DOWN

Falmouth Single Family Sales Are Up, But . . .

the prices are down through October 31, 2007. The Cape Cod & Islands Multiple Listing Service show 380 sales for the year through October 31st which is 14 more than last year, but a decrease in average value from 566K in '06 to 533K this year. This is a encouraging to homebuyers which show that prices have been on the decline. For comparison during the same time period, there were 432 sales in 2005 with a average value of 553K. - DAVID

FYI: To get a better sense of where today's market came from, scroll down to the earlier blob
2004 vs. 2005 Sales Comparisons.

Oct. 17, 2007 - Overpriced in Falmouth??

Sep. 21, 2007 - INCREASING HOME VALUES IN FALMOUTH

Home Values Have Soared

This is an interesting chart as it shows the increase in home values for single family homes
in Falmouth over the past 15 years. It just zooms up without blinking for 9 straight years,
then falls back last year and regains a little this year so far. What does it hold for the
future? Do you see it wobbling for a few years, falling back to the 2000-2001 level or
picking up steam again and breaking into the 600K level?

It's your call. Let's hear what you have to say. Remember though, no one could have
believed that his home would double in value over the next few years, but it did and
it could again - but we'll see won't we!! - DAVID
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.
All Rights Reserved.

Sep. 16, 2007 - WHERE IS THE MARKET GOING?

With all the fuss and speculation

Jan. 19, 2006 - 2004 vs. 2005 Sales Comparisons

2004 vs 2005 Sales in Falmouth

Here is what happened in the 2005 single family home market in Falmouth as of 12/17 as compared to 2004. Figures include all listings up to 999K to give a more accurate sense of the market since sales of 30-40 homes over $1,000,000 throw off the averages:

1. Increase in average sold prices the last 24 months -

    418K Jan-June 2004        461K July-December 2004

    464K Jan-June 2005        464K July-Dec.17th 2005

    Note: a levelling of the market the past 12-14 months



2. 2004 sales 1/1-12/17 -

    489 sales  Average sale: 438K  Days on Mkt: 94



3. 2005 sales 1/1-12/17 -

    445 sales  Average sale: 464K  Days on Mke: 93

    Note: there were 44 fewer sales in 2005 - about 8-9%.  Also, sales prices are the most accurate 

    numbers realtors use when establishing a price for new listings.  Unfortunately, sellers have 

    different ideas usually based on the inflated prices they see published in the paper, 

    on the internet and in other sources.



4. 2004 Expired/Withdrawn listings -    

    268 listings  Avg price 535K (97K over avg. sales  price)

    Note: listings expire or are withdrawn for any number or reasons, but most indicate overpricing 

    and may enter the market again at a reduced price and often still too high. For some this may 

    go on for years until the market catches up to their price.



5. 2005 Expired/Withdrawn listings -

    430 listings  Avg price 525K (61K over avg. sales price) 

    Note: the big jump of 162 listings from 2004 to this year.



6. Active listings 12/17/05 = 368

    Note: This is about 100 to 125 more than normal.  I hope you find this info to be helpful in 

    better understanding our market.  If you have any questions or want more info, please let me know.

     Copyright © 2006 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.  All Rights Reserved.