Mar. 10, 2008 - FALMOUTH 15 YEAR HOME VALUES
Falmouth Home Values - the Last 15 Years
That was quite a ride from 1998 to 2004 and very profitable for those that hung-in following 8-10 sluggish years beginning in 1989. Those that purchased at the top of the market in the late 80's couldn't sell since the market value fell below the cost of their homes. That problem exists today causing so many homes to be overpriced, a glut of homes for sale and a market slowdown .
How then should one proceed? Answer: by learning to become a smart homebuyer. Real estate is a business and homebuyers should take a business approach when buying a home. Study the market and learn its cyclical patterns. This chart only covers 15 years, but go back another 15 to 1978 and you will be able to see the beginning of the early 80's housing boom followed by a slowdown, followed by another surge, then the collapse in 1989-1990, all very cyclical.
Understanding the cyclical nature of the market may teach you to be cautious of a "hot market." to buy with care when prices get too high and avoid a buying frenzy. On the other hand, it's an art to sense when the market it getting near the bottom, because that can be a great time to buy. In either case, the real estate market may have risen or fallen by a couple months before buyers are aware and opportunities could be lost.
To conclude, todays lowering prices are pointing towards the best time to buy and smart homebuyers will take advantage of the opportunities available. But then, they have learned to do so in all markets. For more information, please contact me at dfkelley@pair.com. - DAVID
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Mar. 4, 2008 - Falmouth Home Sales - 15 Years
This is What Happened in Falmouth the past 15 years*
This chart shows a pattern influenced by factors which can vary from year to year. Of interest
is that changes seem to occur in 3 year patterns as shown by the red lines which now puts 2008 at the beginning of a new cycle. Which way will it go and what factors are at work now? Hopefully this chart will give you something to work with as you do your own research into the current market
Of interest are the 651 sales made in 1998 at a time when home prices were still reasonable. At one time that year 100 homes were for sale priced under 90K. With the same homes now valued around 250K now, it seems unlikely that 651 sales will be reached again with everything priced so much higher.
Lastly, FYI the number of homes for sale are getting smaller from a high of 521 at one time in
2006 to about 385 now. The average in 2004 while the market was still hot was 221. For buyers that means less confusion, but also less opportunity as we get closer to a sellers market. If you have
any questions or want more information, please contact me at dfkelley@pair.com. - DAVID
*These are the single family homes sales by realtors as recorded in the Multiple Listing
Service which represents over 85% of total sales.
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Feb. 17, 2008 - FALMOUTH ARTISTS GUILD RECEIVES 240K GRANT
ARTISTS GUILD RECEIVES GRANT FOR NEW ART CENTER
The Falmouth Artists Guild received notice on Valentine's Day that it had
been awarded a grant of $240,000 from the Massachusetts Cultural Facilities
Fund. Carolyn Partan, Chair of the Guild's Capital Campaign, said that with
this grant, the Guild has the funds to begin construction of its new community
art center. Ground breaking is expected before summer.
The Guild's President, Landi Landrau, has appointed Mark Garner of Century
21 Associates, Chair of the Building Committee. Other members are Carl
Cavossa, Cavossa Companies; Landi Landrau; Carolyn Partan; Marge Salmon,
Guild Board members; and Jody Shaw, Ballymeade Development Corporation.
Giampietro Architects, P.C. is the architect for the project.
Ms. Partan said "The Guild is truly excited about this marvelous grant.
We are also most grateful for the approximately 450 donors to our Capital
Campaign, many of whom have given multiple times. We will continue to
fundraise for landscaping and furnishings for the new community art center.
For the long-term, we know the Guild must increase annual giving and
establish an endowment." Jill Tompkins, the Director added, "I speak for
all the gallery visitors and students that we are thrilled we will be
above ground next year, with adequate parking, heating and cooling, and be
handicap accessible - and that's just the beginning!"
For more information, please contact
David F. Kelley, Chairman PR Committee
Email: dfkelley@pair.com
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Nov. 10, 2007 - SALES UP - PRICES DOWN
Falmouth Single Family Sales Are Up, But . . .
the prices are down through October 31, 2007. The Cape Cod & Islands Multiple Listing Service show 380 sales for the year through October 31st which is 14 more than last year, but a decrease in average value from 566K in '06 to 533K this year. This is a encouraging to homebuyers which show that prices have been on the decline. For comparison during the same time period, there were 432 sales in 2005 with a average value of 553K. - DAVID
FYI: To get a better sense of where today's market came from, scroll down to the earlier blob
2004 vs. 2005 Sales Comparisons.
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Oct. 21, 2007 - JUST FOR KIDS
Just For Kids
OK, I know it's a stretch, but why not have a blog for kids. Kids like to blog and maybe more so than us adults, and besides, they could teach us a thing or too about blogging and internet technology, even to us know-it-all e-PRO's. Question: why do parents, aunts and uncles bring little kids to Red Sox and Celtics games? Answer: to create the next generation of fans or fanatics. So the same thing for kids on a real estate website - get them familiar with and thinking and learning about real estate as kids because they will be the next generation of homebuyers and sellers and even real estate agents and brokers.
Enough already, here's "Just For Kids'" and don't forget to add your ideas and suggestions and make it grow;
www.capecodspecials.com/just-for-kids2.html
- DAVID
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Oct. 17, 2007 - Overpriced in Falmouth??
Is
Falmouth Overpriced? By David F.
Kelley
Here's a re-printed article from the Falmouth Enterprise on October 28, 2003 that might shed light on today's market. For instance, 268 single family homes
for sale vs.496 today - 268 being a more normal number - and 431 solds vs 356 today. Like the old 'gold rush' this is a bit of
history that seems to have led to today's slugish market.
Is Real Estate in Falmouth
Overpriced? Good question, so let's find out.
During the first 3 quarters of this year (2003), 391 homes were sold at an average price of $445,000. In the same period last
year (2002) 431 sold averaging $376,000 or $69,000 less, and 5 years ago (1998) 485 sold averaging only $230,000 or $215,000
less.
Do these price increases mean the homes were overpriced? Some of them probably were and generally It means
they are worth more, but why? Possibly because our town has become very attractive to buyers, especially those who cannot
afford the prices on Nantucket and the Vineyard and also the younger "Baby Boomers" who are now ready to buy second homes.
(continued on link):
www.capecodspecials.com/overpriced.html
- DAVID
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Oct. 13, 2007 - BRIEF HISTORY OF FALMOUTH
A Brief History of Falmouth.
One of my favorite places in New England is the White Mountains in New Hampshire where I often hiked, skiied, camped and
stayed in one of the several AMC huts on the Appalachian trail. The Appalachian mountains were formed over 500 million years
ago, but what does this have to do with Falmouth on Cape Cod? Plenty as you'll see. Cape Cod only came into existence less
than 15,000 years ago when the glacier that covered the area melted and created the Cape and islands from the dirt, rocks, and
gravel imbedded in the glacier. Much of this material actually came from the White Mountains and Canada as the glacier scoured
off the mountain tops and dragged it downhill to the ocean which untimately formed where I live in Cape Cod. Here's the story:
www.capecodspecials.com/fal-hist.html - DAVID
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Oct. 12, 2007 - QUESTIONS TO ASK HOMEBUYERS
Important Questions to Ask Home Buyers.
According to the webstats on my website, these questions are a top 10 most visited page. Realtors know them, but it will help
homebuyers to be prepared to answer them to better help their buyers agent.
* Are you a cash buyer, are you going to get a mortgage or pay for it by some other method?
* Do you have to sell another home before buying? If so, many home sellers will either reject an offer based
on this or only allow a short period of time to place it under agreement.
* Are you pre-approved by a bank? It's very important to do as before you begin your new home search to know
what you can afford and because many home sellers will only work with pre-approved home buyers.
If not, I'll be happy to suggest several local lenders for you to contact? Local lenders are preferable to off-cape banks for
several reasons. There is lots of competition here and they work hard to get the business and earn your recommendations for
future potential customers. They know the area well,
it's values, and the best people to choose for various things like appraisers, attorneys, etc.
* What is your time frame for buying a home? Is it under 3 months, less than a year, or no hurry?
* What price range do you want to work within?
* Describe what you are looking for in a home? A brief description followed by some specifics
such as style, size, age, no. of bedrooms and baths, location or area, neighborhood.
* Have you been looking for a while or are you just starting to look?
* Are you familiar with the Falmouth area?
* Would you like a map? If so, please let me know and I'll mail one.
* Are you working with any other realtors?
- DAVID
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Oct. 10, 2007 - THE RIGHTS OF HOMEBUYERS
The Rights and Responsibilities of Homebuyers.
Did you know that homebuyers have rights? Of course they do, but how often have you ever seen them written down so you could
read them. Well if they have rights, they must also have responsibilities. Knowledge of both is very important for the
homebuyer to know as it can avoid serious problems down the road if this knowledge is lacking. This info comes from the
website of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors and would be good to get familiar with before purchasing a home: www.capecodspecials.com/buyers-rights.html. - DAVID
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Oct. 5, 2007 - THINK LIKE A BUYER
Why Can't a Homeseller Think Like a Buyer??
Many homebuyers can be very secretive and difficult to get info from. The most intelligent ones on the other
hand, are full of questions and want to know absolutely everything about any home that interests them and will study them like
Napoleon planning a battle. In the final analysis when it comes to "decision time" they will make a chart comparing all
physical details of each of the 3 or 4 homes that they are considering. This also includes time on market, sellers original
purchase price, comparable sales vs current list price, price reductions, town assessment, potential upside, neighborhoods and
their value, which home offers more for the money, plus anything else they can think of. Each of the 3 or 4 homes will have
varying values and they base their offers and negotiation range on those values.
Homesellers on the other hand often base everything on a price that they want for their home. This price can
be based on what a neighbor sold his home for last year, the prices they see in the paper, a price they need to buy another
house, a price to cover all the upgrades they made in their home. Is this realistic? It is to the homeseller, but scientific
it is not.
That's why it's important for a homeseller to think like a buyer. To pretend he or she is a homebuyer, look
at the direct competition, make a chart and objectively analyze their home. Study the comparable sales and see how they
compare to your home in price, value, size, etc. It may be difficult to be objective about your own home as you may err on the
high side, but after the comparisons sink in for a while, you may see the light and be better able to make the best decision
about your home - to keep, to remodel, to sell at a realistic price.
IN REALITY, this exercise is what realtors provide homesellers, most of whom unfortunately, prefer to list at
their price, then take 6 to 12 months to learn to think like a buyer - DAVID
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth,
MA. All Rights Reserved.
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Sep. 27, 2007 - FALMOUTH HAD A GLACIER ONCE!
Falmouth's Glacier!
Everyone loves Cape Cod as the summer traffic demonstrates, but most people are not aware of how Cape Cod came about. It's
fascinating, reading about the geology of our area. The book that I have is 'A Geologist's View of Cape Cod' by Arthur N.
Strahler. It's probably our of print, but there are editions by other authors in the bookstores. For example, did you know
that the glacier over Falmouth was about a mile thick and that it covered Cape Cod a mere 10,000 years ago. When it melted
and receeded north the dirt, sand, boulders, and gravel contained within the glacier actually formed the Cape and created
all the ponds and kettle holes that you see. The glacier originally extended as far as Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard and
formed them about 13,000 years ago when it first began to melt. It continued to receed for a while, stopped during another
cold spell then formed the Cape as it melted northward. At that time, the ocean was about 300' lower and was out of sight
if you looked out from what is now Woods Hole. Try to learn more, you'll fascinate your friends when they visit you in
Falmouth. - DAVID
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.
All Rights Reserved.
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Sep. 27, 2007 - PREPARING YOUR HOME TO SELL
"Preparing to Sell Your
Home"
By David F. Kelley
 It All Begins At The
Curb.
A home need not be a ravishing beauty to attract - to sell. It need not shout, it should invite, a look, a pause, a let's go
see. We've all seen homes with good "curb appeal." Everything looks right, the grass, the bushes, the trees, all cared for.
The trim, the siding, the roof, well maintained. No clutter, nothing out of place, making a great first impression. If the
outside looks this good, then so should the inside.
Unrealistic? Maybe a little, but really, you're trying to sell a home and want to invite home hunters inside. Potential buyers
are guests and you want them to feel comfortable. You want them to look at your home from top to bottom, inside and out, and
you want them to say "wow, this may be the place for me," and seriously consider making an offer. But in order to do get this
far, it begins at the curb. Do prospective buyers want to come in, or more on to the next house? It's up to you.
To continue, please click on http://www.capecodspecials.com/preparing.to.sell,html -
DAVID
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Sep. 21, 2007 - INCREASING HOME VALUES IN FALMOUTH
Home Values Have Soared
This is an interesting chart as it shows the increase in home values for single family homes
in Falmouth over the past 15 years. It just zooms up without blinking for 9 straight years,
then falls back last year and regains a little this year so far. What does it hold for the
future? Do you see it wobbling for a few years, falling back to the 2000-2001 level or
picking up steam again and breaking into the 600K level?
It's your call. Let's hear what you have to say. Remember though, no one could have
believed that his home would double in value over the next few years, but it did and
it could again - but we'll see won't we!! - DAVID
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.
All Rights Reserved.
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Sep. 20, 2007 - TIPS FOR HOMESELLERS.
Overpricing Doesn't Work.
"Let's try this higher price for a while. We can reduce it later if we get no action."
- Many homesellers like to try this strategy and many realtors go along with it to get a listing, but it is not the way to
sell a home. Buyers are always waiting for a home like this to be listed and if priced right, will probably buy it. If
overpriced, they will ignore it and the house will miss the market and lanquish. - DAVID
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.
All Rights Reserved.
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Sep. 16, 2007 - WHERE IS THE MARKET GOING?
With all the fuss and speculation about the real estate market, there is nothing as
unemotionally factual as looking at a chart or graph. That's why info-graphics are so powerful. I was curious about all the
squawks from realtors about the slow market such as "no one is buying or comes to open houses, the phone never rings" and so
forth. Even potential homebuyers complained that the market was slow, yet they have a super-abundance of homes to look at. So
I thought I'd check the single family sales for this year in the MLS to see what was or wasn't happening. Being curious, I
wondered how this year compared with previous years and ended up with this 15 year chart.
Surprise! Sales were up over the same period in 2006, but why was the market so quiet? I had to conclude that
it was partially due to buyers looking at houses on the internet and not needing to visit them first hand to get a feel for
the market. Gas prices could be another factor plus homebuyer uncertainty with the financial market, being upset by all the
foreclosures, and basic conservatism. In a hot market buyers get over-eager, climb on the bandwagon, visit all the open houses
and frequently overpay for homes, but in a slow market they get very timid. Good deals are available for those willing to
bargain and create a negotiating situation.
Anyway, here's what the real estate market looks like for the first 8 months of each of the last 15 years on
sales under $1,000,000. Can you tell where the market is headed? What do you think. - DAVID
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.
All Rights Reserved.
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Sep. 8, 2007 - ARE YOU CONFUSED BY 'BUYER AGENCY?'
Dual-Agent - are you a spy?
All you want to do is to look at houses and all realtors want to do is to read you your rights. Explaining buyer
agency is one thing, but 'Dual-Agency!!' - give me a break. I know, it's a pain and it's confusing and you're not
interested in hearing about it at the time, but it's important - besides, we are required to explain our relationship to
you in this situation be it as a representative of the seller, a buyers agent, a dual-agent or facilitator.
It makes more sense to understand the difference before you ever talk or meet with a realtor. This way
you can both concentrate on your main concern - looking at houses. For a full explanation of the different relationships,
please click on this link to my website: http://www.capecodspecials.com/buyers-agent.html. It is critical
that you understand this and that you are properly represented with a good realtor working for you and not the seller. A
big mistake that buyers make that do most of their homesearches on the internet, is to seek out the listing agent for a
home because that agent knows more about the home. They do know more, but they are working for the seller, not you. The
only modification to that role is for them to become a disclosed dual-agent and in that situation, they represent neither
party.
Considering the importance of the situation, please seek our a good 'Buyers Agent' as they will be
working for you and only you. David
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.
All Rights Reserved.
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Sep. 6, 2007 - WHAT'S HAPPENING IN FALMOUTH?
Welcome back to my blog.
Well here I am only a few days late only because it has been a very busy summer. I'm chairman of the
Falmouth Artists Guilds public relations committee and we had a lot happening. That included a great fund raising auction
held at the Coonamesset Inn - very elegant with a Great Gatsby theme with everyone dressing the part of the 'Roaring
Twenties.' Gloria Lieberman was the auctioneer and did a great job. You can see her on Antique Roadshow, is an expert in
her field and works for Skinner's auction house in Boston. I won a prize for my outfit as a 20's tennis player holding my
fathers antique racket.
The Artists Guild has been raising money for sometime and we are getting close. We need $1,400,000
altogether with about $300,000 more to go before we can start building our 'New Community Art Center.' What a joy that
will be for everyone in Falmouth and surrounding towns in the Upper Cape. Our 2.2 acre building site is at the corner of
Dillingham and Gifford Streets and we encourage people to visit it as they can see the outline of the building and rooms
drawn in white on the ground. For more info about it and the Guild, please contact me.
Everyone seemed to be very busy this summer as it was more crowded than usual with the beaches, streets
and restaurants bussling with activity, but hor-ray, its ended. The kids are back in school, the crowds are gone, the
streets back to normal and now we have two beautiful autumn months to enjoy. We also have the second busiest real estate
season of the year up until about Thanksgiving - so if you're thinking of selling, now's the time to list provided the
price is right - and if you're a buyer, you have lots of choices. In either case, do not take it lightly. Buying or
selling a home is not like shopping for a loaf of bread - get informed, know what you are doing, be realistic and get good
professional help. If you are new to homebuying, you'll find very helpful guidance on my website by clicking on http://www.capecodspecials.com/home-buying-guide.html.
Here's a great real estate book that 'everyone' should read: 'Ripping the Roof Off Real Estate"
by Mollie W. Wasserman. It's published by Gabriel Publications and can be ordered at your local
bookstore. Mollie is a smart woman and knows what she is talking about so I think you will be well informed, entertained
and will approach real estate with a totally different and realistic mindset after reading her book.
David
Copyright © 2007 By David F. Kelley, Falmouth, MA.
All Rights Reserved.
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Aug. 19, 2007 - Welcome Back David
I've taken a short vacation from my BLOG - of only 2 years - but am back full of bloggy-ideas ready to share with you and to
get your feed-back. Falmouth on Cape Cod is my base and there's lots to discuss about our real estate market, homebuyers,
prices, what's happening in Falmouth, the Falmouth Artists Guilds new building and a bunch of other things.
So please stay tuned, give me a little time to get organized - let's just say about Sept. 1st or sooner. In the meantime, if
you have any questions about real estate or art - I am also a serious artist too - please send an email to
dfkelley@pair.com.
Cheers,
David Kelley
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