Fear and Its Aftershocks

 

I was listening on television Saturday night about the earthquake in the Midwest and the discussion of the aftershocks and how terrifying an earthquake can be. It reminded me of fear and its aftershocks.

 

Fear, as most of us know, can be defined as false expectations appearing real. The failing economy can be labeled as fearful. What are the aftershocks? I have been listening to my words as I speak about economic conditions, the banking mess, falling real estate prices and demand. My words have become pessimistic and fearful. I have little or nothing positive to say; most of my words are negative and critical of the President and the Congress. I consider these words and feeling as aftershocks to the fear earthquake. Do my words have an aftershock? I believe they do. My words negatively impact my being; I am pessimistic. My words negatively affect my surroundings; the people I talk with; my clients; anyone I come into contact with. 

 

How can I turn around this negativity?  I can be mindful of my thoughts, because my thoughts shape my words and my behavior. I can do something different. I can reassess my attitude. I can reassess why I’m in real estate. If I’ve made a decision to be a Realtor and a real estate Broker, why am I throwing stones at the President? Am I responsible for the economic downturn? Something to ponder. 

In Prescott, Arizona on Thursday, March 13^th, I attended the AAR Winter Conference of Realtors. The first speaker was Jed Smith, NAR’s Director of Quantitative Research. He gave the Realtors an optimistic picture of the economy and Mr. Smith did not believe the Country would be in a recession and also painted a rosier picture of the Arizona economy than I had heard previously.

 

Dr. John Tuccillio, former NAR economist, then spoke and disagreed with Mr. Smith. Dr. Tuccillio believes we’re in a recession and one of his best comments was about the core inflation figures. Looking at core inflation, it appears that our inflation is within an acceptable range, “if you don’t eat or drive”. Dr. Tuccillio’s point was that with the cost of food and gas added to core inflation, you have inflation at an unacceptable level.

 

Also, Dr. Tuccillio gave the Realtors an overall view: the real estate market will bottom out between now and the end of 2009. How to determine when the bottom has been reached: decline in new listings from the same period last year; days on market begin to decline; and sales price to listing price does up.

 

The Man Bites Dog quote relates to the turn around in real estate and Realtors; inability to adjust to the new conditions and our inability to educate and appropriately counsel our clients. 

 

Interesting news and views

 

On the News Hour Thursday or Friday night (PBS Ch. 8 in Phoenix), Gwen Ifill was interviewing two senators, one from Arkansas and one from Georgia, regarding the stimulus package being worked on in the US Senate. The Georgia Senator, whose name escapes me, reminded the audience that in the 1970s our economy was in trouble, similar to where it is now, and that Congress passed a stimulus package which included a tax credit totaling $9,000 over 3 years, to anyone who purchased a home.

 

I don’t remember this incentive package. I do remember the 70s interest rates and horrible housing market, but I was not a Realtor and paid little attention to this segment of the economy.

 

I’m generally anti government ‘meddling’, but this incentive package, with a tax credit phased over 3 years, really intrigues me and I think (hope) it’s something that Congress will look into. The two Senators agreed that the stimulus package passed by the House would be a good step (perhaps with a little Senate tweaking), but that a further stimulus package might be needed to get this economy moving and the housing market off dead center.   According to Phoenix Board of Realtors statistics, www.armls.com  in December, we closed 844 units, both condos and homes, and we added 12,573 units, again both condos and homes. At that rate, we have 15 months of inventory on the ground. That’s not a pretty thought!!