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Happy Sad Graduation
July 2nd at 5 pm Crisis Nursery FACES program will graduate another class of 11 children. I have been privileged and honored to be a part of their lives. Some of these kids I have known since they were 13 months old!! Some have joined the Crisis Nursery family within the last year. These kids have made such amazing progress, both socially and academically. They come from families where violence and neglect are the norm – not the exception. And they survive and prosper within the Crisis Nursery family and FACES program.
FACES began as a HeadStart program and has evolved into a nurturing, healthy, loving environment where children can learn to respect themselves and others, learn to appropriately attach to an adult, learn social skills and life skills, and learn academically.
It will be happy, sad to attend graduation and watch the kids’ smiles and watch the teachers’ tears, because I will be smiling and crying along with them.
And within 3 weeks, there will be another class of 4 to 5 year olds moving up into my classroom, so I can begin this cycle all over again. It is the cycle of life and the cycle of Crisis Nursery.
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Bike Ride
I took a long bicycle ride Sunday from my house around 16th St. and McDowell to north of 32nd Street and Camelback and then rode east on the SRP canals. What a gorgeous ride. The mountains are so close to the Canal and there is brush alongside the graveled surface and you can imagine all the rabbits and quail that are hiding in the brush. The Canal borders the Arizona Biltmore Resort, which is a spectacular Frank Lloyd Wright building, and then meanders north. I left the Canal at Glendale and rode west to 12th Street and followed 12th Street most of the way back to my house. Next time I take this ride, I’ll bring my camera and take pictures of the Biltmore and the mountains.
I’m preparing for a 5 day Vermont cycling trip in October and I need to ride at least 30 miles a day. Cycling in Vermont will not resemble cycling in Phoenix, but my stamina and my endurance need to increase, along with my confidence and ease of riding. I cycled 15 miles Sunday and wasn't at all tired. I’ll continue blogging about my Sunday bike expeditions and my experiences.
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Jingle mail should be a new phrase highlighted in William Safire’s column in the Sunday New York Times. This credit/housing crunch has produced some interesting words: securitized mortgages; jingle mail No, it’s not time for Christmas!! Actually, jingle mail is what lenders fear the most! Homeowners are returning their house keys to lenders at a rapid rate; thus, jingle mail. Mailrooms at loan servicers must be inundated with keys dropping from envelopes as homeowners become discouraged with the sinking economy and their rising debt.
Regardless of any Federal ‘bail-out’ for homeowners, some homeowners simply need to get out from under their situations and mailing keys to lenders is their way of doing so. Some homeowners are so upside –down in their mortgages, that even a bail-out cannot help them. Their options are to be foreclosed upon or simply to mail keys to lenders and walk away. Sometimes, it is more upstanding to simply let go of your house and move on.
Since I’ve only been a Realtor for 5 years, I have never known a cycle like this one. We all knew the bubble could not continue, but no one thought the bursting would be so painful and so deep. Are there lessons to be learned from this downturn? Oh, you bet!! Lending needed to be tightened; no more 100% stated income loans; Realtors need to be proactive and do their homework in advising their clients; appraisers need to follow their guidelines and not be pressured by lenders. In all, this will be a costly lesson for everyone, including homeowners. Jingle mail will continue; hopefully, it will not resound like the Salvation Army's bells at Christmas time.
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What Does the Well-Qualified Buyer Look Like?
Most of us can describe the perfect house; the perfect car; the perfect spouse. How many of us can describe the well-qualified buyer? Most of us don’t have a picture of what this buyer looks like because for several years, we haven’t had to worry about well-qualified buyers. With the proliferation of loan products and ‘easy’ money, well-qualified was not a concern of most lenders and Realtors.
Right now, to qualify for a conventional loan, a buyer must have at least a 660 to 680 FICO score; probably closer to the 680 figure. They must have verifiable employment (income) and at least 5% down payment.
FHA is not credit score driven. It is a product for first time homebuyers, but mortgage brokers are seeing previous homeowners obtaining FHA loans in this current market. In Maricopa County, the FHA loan limit is $346,000, which is considerably higher than the median home price; approximately $220,000. Sellers can contribute to buyer’s closing costs through both AmeriDream and Nehemiah programs, which are recognized charitable companies, handling sellers’ contributions for a fee.
So, what does the well-qualified buyer look like? She (he) is someone with 3 to 5% cash to put down, plus has money for reserves, has a decent FICO score and a verifiable job or source of income. Shades of my parents!! These were the same guidelines when they purchased a home, or when I purchased my first home.
Do these buyers exist? I’m sure they do!! I can’t wait to meet some of them!!!
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Fear and Its Aftershocks
I was listening on television Saturday night about the earthquake in the Midwest and the discussion of the aftershocks and how terrifying an earthquake can be. It reminded me of fear and its aftershocks.
Fear, as most of us know, can be defined as false expectations appearing real. The failing economy can be labeled as fearful. What are the aftershocks? I have been listening to my words as I speak about economic conditions, the banking mess, falling real estate prices and demand. My words have become pessimistic and fearful. I have little or nothing positive to say; most of my words are negative and critical of the President and the Congress. I consider these words and feeling as aftershocks to the fear earthquake. Do my words have an aftershock? I believe they do. My words negatively impact my being; I am pessimistic. My words negatively affect my surroundings; the people I talk with; my clients; anyone I come into contact with.
How can I turn around this negativity? I can be mindful of my thoughts, because my thoughts shape my words and my behavior. I can do something different. I can reassess my attitude. I can reassess why I’m in real estate. If I’ve made a decision to be a Realtor and a real estate Broker, why am I throwing stones at the President? Am I responsible for the economic downturn? Something to ponder.
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 Uplifting Gardens
One of my favorite pastimes is to garden, which may seem strange to those of you living in other parts of the country. Gardening in the Southwest is challenging, but not impossible. When I walk into my backyard, I see roses blooming, hollyhocks raising their stalks to the sky with their beautiful pink and maroon blossoms, chamomile blooming and filling the air with its tangy scent, penstamens on their silvery stalks with their beautiful pink and red flowers, and more butterflies and ladybugs than I can count.
The hummingbirds visit my pond in the morning and I greet each of them. I can hear their twittering as they swoop to drink water from the waterfall. I’m listening to the birds chirping as I write this. It’s a wonderful time of the year and so enjoyable to spend time out of doors.
Gardening brings such peace and joy to my life. I love to watch things bloom and thrive. The desert can be cruel because if the intensity of the sun and the lack of humidity, but many plants love the heat, just as I do.
Time to get my gloves on and do some gardening!
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Bush Fiddles While the Cuntry Burns
We all know about the burning of Rome, while Nero fiddled. The housing and mortgage meltdown feels like the burning of Rome, while President Bush does not ‘get’ the urgency of the situation. Normally, I don’t write about politics, but today, I am making an exception. The Senate has proposed a modest housing reprieve with tax breaks for homebuilders, a $7,000 tax credit for buyers who purchase a foreclosed property, $10 billion in tax-exempt bonds for housing agencies to assist strapped homeowners in refinancing their homes and $100 million to counsel borrowers. The White House is responding that this bill would do more harm than good. President Bush has proposed an alternative which would require lenders and investors to write down their loans and would also require the homeowner to pay 3% down payment. Most of the strapped homeowners cannot drag 3% to the table. If these homeowners could have found 3%, they would have refinanced their homes a long time ago.
This crisis has dragged the economy down; caused lenders to stringently tighten their guidelines; caused Americans to have little confidence in the President; caused pockets of foreclosed homes across the country and the White House says – the bill would do more harm than good?? Since the other White House proposals have done little or nothing to assist Joe Homeowner, and this new proposal is too limited to assist more than 100,000 homeowners, this situation can only get worse. I spoke to a homeowner the other day and she indicated that the $600 rebate from the stimulus would not pay ¼ of her mortgage.
Most of us have done all the belt-tightening we can do. Isn’t it time for Congress to do something to assist the average homeowner? And to get the President’s attention? All of us know horror stories of honest, hard-working people losing their homes because of the declining market conditions and the inability to refinance. I’m not a big advocate of Government programs, but it seems that something needs to be done at the Federal level to prevent further erosion of our housing and mortgage markets. How much longer can the White House ignore this situation? Or, does Bush enjoy fiddling while Rome burns?
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What Are The Hidden Costs of Foreclosures?
It’s been widely quoted (on NBC News and other sources) that each foreclosure costs every neighboring homeowner 1% in home value and 2% increase in crime. There are even more costs. In Arizona Republic, Edythe Jensen’s article focused on Homeowner’s Associations and their budgetary woes. HOAs and their management companies are unable to perform many of their customary services, i.e., inspection and weed removal, because of the lack of HOA fees. This is a trickle down effect of short sales and foreclosures and delinquent HOA fees.
A 2% increase in crime is subsequently borne by cities and counties who also have shrinking resources, because of a non-performing tax base. Each foreclosure and short sale depletes the tax base, and when the house is sold at a reduced price, the tax base is lowered.
This is particularly gloomy and in view of Ben Bernanke’s ‘shrinking’ first half prediction, it’s time for Congress to get into this act.
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Our memories of the Home Tour and the chalk drawings in front of MacAlpines are both fading, but what a great time we had!! Emerson Grade School children and a local artist, Maggie Keane drew on the sidewalk Saturday night, before the Home Tour. On Sunday, North High School marching band and Emerson chorus performed; Mayor Gordon and Councilman Nowakowski attended the Tour and Festival; there were bands performing throughout the day and Crisis Nursery operated a Kid Zone, with inflatables, face painting, visor and bracelet crafts. In all, 71 vendors set up their booths, everything from Home Depot to Bright Ideas, kitchen remodeling. The day was perfect, not too hot, and the breeze was just right, until 2 p.m., when it began gusting.
The houses on the Tour were wonderful, and well represented our great Neighborhood. Some of the houses had been remodeled, but ever so tastefully, and some were pristine and the day they were built. Level 4 Studio, at 10th and Sheridan, opened their offices/studio for the tour and what a great asset to our neighborhood. After the Home Tour concluded, there were more festivities on 7th St., with bands and entertainment.
Our Neighborhood looked so good, and I was so proud of us – both the neighborhood and all the volunteers who made this Tour a great success.
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Don't forget tonight at 8 p.m is Earth Hour, when all non-essential lights should be turned off. Phoenix has agreed to participate in this exercise and encourages its residents to turn off all non-essential lights and electrical devices. City Hall and the Calvin C. Goode building downtown are among the city buildings that will go dark during that hour. However, Phoenix will not extinguish any essential lights; those that are necessary for public safety. To find out more about Earth Hour and get some tips of what to do in the dark, please go to earthhour@wwfus.org.
Please share your Earth Hour expereiences with me.
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Come join us on Sunday, March 30th, from 10 am to 5 pm for the Annual Coronado Home Tour and Festival. The Home Tour kicks off from Coronado Park, on 10th St. and Palm where you can purchase your tickets and your home tour brochure. The tour is a self-guided walking tour and your brochure is your guide. The brochure describes each of the homes on the tour, gives a thumb-nail history of each house, and describes the owners. Ollie the Trollie is available for those who choose to ride to the houses or for those who want to hop on and off at various stops.
Mayor Gordon will speak at the Home Tour around 10 to 10:30 am and Councilman Nowakowski and his staff will also be on hand. In the park, along with food vendors and all kids of craft vendors, there will be bands on 2 stages and Crisis Nursery is providing face painting, crafts and games for the kids. There will be 71 vendors (craft, food, bands, home improvement) in the park
There is also an ‘after-party’ at the Camelback Contractors’ 7th St. parking lot, with chalk paintings, 2 band and lots of entertainment. What a wonderful way to spend your Sunday, see some charming homes, walk through the wide tree-lined streets, and know you’re in a different world – you’re in Coronado!
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In Prescott, Arizona on Thursday, March 13th, I attended the AAR Winter Conference of Realtors. The first speaker was Jed Smith, NAR’s Director of Quantitative Research. He gave the Realtors an optimistic picture of the economy and Mr. Smith did not believe the Country would be in a recession and also painted a rosier picture of the Arizona economy than I had heard previously.
Dr. John Tuccillio, former NAR economist, then spoke and disagreed with Mr. Smith. Dr. Tuccillio believes we’re in a recession and one of his best comments was about the core inflation figures. Looking at core inflation, it appears that our inflation is within an acceptable range, “if you don’t eat or drive”. Dr. Tuccillio’s point was that with the cost of food and gas added to core inflation, you have inflation at an unacceptable level.
Also, Dr. Tuccillio gave the Realtors an overall view: the real estate market will bottom out between now and the end of 2009. How to determine when the bottom has been reached: decline in new listings from the same period last year; days on market begin to decline; and sales price to listing price does up.
The Man Bites Dog quote relates to the turn around in real estate and Realtors; inability to adjust to the new conditions and our inability to educate and appropriately counsel our clients.
It was good information and well received
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Yesterday, for the first time, I had the exciting and scary experience of appearing in front of a tv camera. Councilman Michael Nowakowski is our District 7 councilman for the Phoenix City Council and his office asked me to appear on a panel with the Councilman and 2 other community activists. The other participants were Philip Wooley, the PC/Health Department head of the new Betty Fairfax High School in Laveen, and Alvin Battle, a newly appointed member of the Maryvale Revitalization Committee.
Mr. Wooley spoke about the formation of a Laveen volunteer-run sports organization. Laveen, in southwest Phoenix, has grown so quickly that the Phoenix Parks & Rec. Department has not yet formulated activities for the growing population. Mr. Wooley and his group have undertaken the task of running baseball, football, and soon, basketball leagues until Phoenix Parks & Rec. can catch up.
Alvin Battle is also a real estate broker and has lived in Maryvale for over 30 years. Maryvale is on the west side of Phoenix and was developed by John F. Long, a local developer, who recently passed away. Maryvale was named for Long’s wife, Mary. The Revitalization Committee is tasked with a huge job of uniting their diverse population to rebuild and revitalize Maryvale. I was impressed by Mr. Battle’s assertion that diversity can be a strength rather than a weakness. I was also impressed by Mr. Battle’s enthusiasm for his task and his can-do attitude.
I spoke about the March 30th Coronado Home Tour and Festival. As nervous as I was, it was easy to speak to something I’m passionate about, and I was surprised at how the words came from me, when I needed them. The nervousness disappeared as I was speaking about Coronado and the Home Tour. It’s an experience I’ll remember, and perhaps, have an opportunity to repeat.
The video of our discussion will be broadcast on Phoenix Channel 11, beginning Monday, March 24th and ending Sunday, April 6th, and air at various times throughout the day. For more information about the Coronado Home Tour and Festival, go to gcna.info and click on the Home Tour page.
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Having sat through 8 hours of deadly boring Block Watch training on Saturday, I decided to take my Sunday stroll through Coronado Neighborhood to Starbucks on 7th St. and McDowell to pick up my weekly treat; the New York Times. As I approached the row of stores east of Starbucks, there was a gentleman throwing rocks at Chico’s Sandwich Shop windows, breaking the large windows. He then moved to H & R Block and proceeded to break those windows. As I dialed 911, I was grateful for the Block Watch training, because the Police officers taught us not to approach someone, but to call either Crime Stop or 911 from a distance and to describe the individual(s) as accurately as possible. I was speaking with the 911 operator when the patrol car drove up and apprehended the rock thrower. The man did not run, nor did he resist in any way. He stood still and allowed the officer to arrest him, almost as though that was the intent of his actions.
It’s amazing how ‘there are no accidents’. If I had not attended the Block Watch training, I doubt that I would have called 911, because I normally do not get involved. I will rethink some of my negative thoughts about the training, since I was able to use it so quickly. Do I think there will be an incident each and every time I walk? Not at all!! My hope and desire is that there will be no incidents and Coronado will remain the quiet, charming place in which to live and work.
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Thoughts on Real Estate
In watching the Democratic candidates this weekend, I paid particular attention to their views on the housing market and what is the best plan to get the country out of the housing ‘mess’ that we’re in. Sen. Clinton is proposing a 5 year freeze on interest rates and a 3 month moratorium on foreclosures to give the lenders an opportunity to aid homeowners. Sen. Obama is proposing a fund for homeowners to assist them in refinancing their homes.
While I think both of these proposals is well intentioned, I think they miss the mark. It’s my view that we should be looking at this market as an awesome opportunity for buyers and we should make it more attractive for buyers to get into the market. Now, I know, people say: “that’s what we did 3-4 years ago, and look where we are”. What I propose is to allow lenders to lend money. What a concept!! Most lenders are so afraid to lend that they’ve stopped doing their job!! Let’s be cautious about buyer’s credit and their ability to repay the loan, but let’s go back to lending money. Also, since we currently have 15 months inventory on the ground, why not give a homebuyer (not an investor) a tax credit for purchasing a resale home. I like the rolling 3 year tax credit idea, but any form of this would be a big boost to the housing market.
Since the housing market affects 30% of the economy, and in Arizona, I think that figure is higher, we need to figure out a way to stimulate this vital part of our economy. Of course, I’m prejudiced, since it’s the industry in which I work, but think about it. With minimal interference from the government, we could, I believe, get more buyers into this market and ‘eat’ up our inventory at a rapid rate. I’m interested in anyone’s comments or suggestions to these proposals
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Who Do You Bail Out?
This was recently a column heading in the New York Times. Do you bail out Wall Street and the hedge funds? Do you bail out lenders? Do you bail out homeowners?
There is a new proposal being floated by lenders to have the American taxpayers bail out the lenders. After decades of keeping Congress out of the lending game, these lenders have floated a proposal to allow the Federal Government (the taxpayers) to buy the lenders distressed loans!! The first step in this process is for the lenders to write down their loan portfolios to a ‘reasonable’ level. This would be extremely difficult, since many loans are in declining markets, which are continuing to slide downward. Once the lenders wrote down their portfolio, the Government would agree to purchase these portfolios at the discounted amount, with the hope that home values would increase, rather than decrease. The outcome, however, could be that the American taxpayer would be saddled with bailing out these lenders, ala the Charley Keating mess in Phoenix several years ago.
Sen. Johnny Isaakson of Georgia, I believe, has floated a much better proposal. He is proposing to give buyers tax credits of $5,000 per year for 3 years, if they purchase a foreclosed home. This, in my opinion, is the stimulus which is needed to bail out our sagging housing market. In Phoenix, we have 15 months of inventory on the ground, and in March, the 3,000 Notice of Trustee’s Sales posted in December, will be hitting out inventory. It is imperative that this inventory be sold, quickly rather than slowly. The sooner we can ‘chew up’ this inventory and move on, the quicker we will recover from this housing ‘mess’.
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Date: Mar. 3, 2008
Tags: None
There’s a book by Betty Smith, ‘A Tree Grows in Brooklyn’, about a girl growing up in Brooklyn. As I look out my office window, my peach tree is blooming; a sure sign of spring and with that, the hopes for a rebirth. Whatever else is happening in the world and in real estate in general, my peach tree is blooming with a promise for Spring and a glorious crop of peaches for me to share with the birds!!
Peach trees in Phoenix are not that rare. There is an orchard south of Phoenix in Queen Creek, which has been raising peaches for years and I make the trek to Queen Creek to pick peaches in the orchard and can or freeze the peaches for peach cobbler and other delights.
So, as my peach tree blooms and lights up my backyard, I am reminded that Spring will come and with it, a whole new attitude and outlook. It’s good to be reminded that Hope is Eternal and there is a universe beyond me. Peach blooms are a great reminder to widen my horizons and look beyond my narrow world. Just think, peach trees are blooming all over the world, as well as my backyard.  |
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Earth Hour 2008 is coming to a city near you!! In Monday's Arizona Republic, there was an article about Earth Hour, which is being celebrated at 8 p.m. Saturday, March 29th, in cities all around the world. At 8 p.m., participants will unplug and turn off any and all electronic and electrical devices; televisions, computers, lights, radios, IPods, everything. The idea is to show people that we can make a difference, even if it's only for one hour. I, for one, have signed up to participate in this activity, and I encourage everyone to join me. Mayor Phil Gordon of Phoenix has indicated that the City will cooperate with businesses in the downtown area to make Earth Hour a reality. In Chicago, landmark buildings, such as the Sears Tower, have agreed to turn off their lights for one hour.
it's only one hour, but it can make a difference. Come and join me. For more information, please go to www.earthhour.com.
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Kermit the frog on Sesame Street sang: It's not easy being green. That song keeps repeating in my mind, but I sing "It's Easy to Being Green!! i just bought a new 2008 Toyota Prius, picture below, and I'm really enjoying this car. I'm not a car person. Give me something with 4 tires, a steering wheel and a back seat and I'm fine, but this car has captured my attention. I began researching the Prius in 2006 and when I would see an owner, I'd ask them: "how do you like the car? Without exceptions, the owners were enthusiastic; some looking to purchase their 2nd Prius.
Since I use this car for real estate, as well as personal, I needed a hatchback, because I haul plants and trees. I'm a gardener, as well as a realtor. The back seat in the Prius is very roomy. The driver amenities are huge!! I have a back-up camera, so I have no excuse for hitting something as I back up. The temperature controls are on the steering wheel, as well as the volume for the stereo/cd player. The steering wheel is just the right size; but BEST OF ALL, I'm averaging over 50 miles per gallon of gas!!! I am so impressed with this vehicle. i sound like a commercial, and I don't mean to, but for anyone who'se looking for a great, economical, roomy car, check out the Prius. 
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This weekend I had the honor and privilege to co-facilitate an Omega Training. Omega Vector is a self-awareness.personal growth seminar group located in Phoenix, Arizona and started by George Addair over 30 years ago. There are an army of Omega grads walking this planet and I was humbled to assist in this training.
There were 28 people who finished the program and their faces were beaming on Sunday. Details cannot be revealed about this experience, but Omega Vector has given me tools to change my life and to look at things from the inside - not the outside.
If you would like additional information or want to check out Omega on the web, their address is: www.omegavector.org. Spending a weekend at an Omega training is a life changing experience, and I cannot adequately express my gratitude for the participants, the staff, George Addair and Ann-Marie, the lead facilitator. Words are totally inadequate to express my feelings and my thoughts. Check out Omega!!
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