June market update

Posted at 10:26 AM, Jul. 18, 2008

I would first like to begin by saying that this is not a "bad" market. It may be spotty, but properties are selling. They are selling if they are perceived as "good Values" to the consumer. The buyer is there. Money is there. And your home or lot will sell if it is priced properly. Any REALTOR® who happens to be moaning about how bad the market is, either has listing that are not properly priced or is not marketing himself or herself to attract buyers to the good values in the market. That said, here come the numbers:

The residential market in June saw 2 homes go into escrow and one escrow close. This compares with 2007 where 2 homes also went into escrow and 2 homes closed. (Since June is not a "hot" time in our market, these numbers do not mean the market is anything other than normal for the month.) For the six months of 2008, we are showing 16 homes that sold. The total value of those homes that sold was $6,785,904. The median price per square foot was $213 and the average days on market was 229. Interestingly, there were three sales over $700,000 which is the higher end of our market. In the first six months of 2007, 16 homes also sold. The total value was $7,128,000, the median price per square foot was $183.95 and the average days on market was 110. Only one home sold for more than $700,000. So for the first 6 months of 2008, it would seem as if the market is not off very much or not at all for homes, and prices may even be up a bit. So much for doom and gloom in the Sonoita-Elgin-Patagonia home market!

The land/lot market is a little different continuing its "softness" that began 12-18 months ago. June 2008 saw 1 lot go into escrow and 4 escrows close. In JUne of 2007, 1 lot also went into escrow and 5 lots closed. Not much difference. For the first six months of 2008, there were 23 land sales with a median price per acre of $15,500. The total value was $3,543,840 and these lots were on the market for an average of 134 days. In the previous year, 49 lots closed escrow (more than twice as many!) with a total value of $8,751,890. The median price was $19,150 and the average time on market was 82 days.

In summary: The housing market is just fine, but the land market is definitely "off" with sales down and the median price per acre down almost 20%. I do not see the land market improving until our home inventory declines, (there are more than 70 on the market today representing a two year supply), and the cost to build retreats. For sellers, pricing is everything at this time if you want to sell. For buyers, there is much to choose from and now is a good time to buy.

The most frequently asked real estate question today

Posted at 2:28 PM, Jun. 18, 2008

Hardly a day goes by when I don't encounter someone I know who asks me: "How is the real estate market?" The answer is simply, "spotty". There are buyers showing up, but there are very few who are actually purchasing property. The current buyer expectation is that there will be a better deal tomorrow. That's not necessarily so - and when tomorrow comes and prices are rising, that buyer is not going to be happy. So, if you are serious about buying property in this market, do it now. There is plenty to choose from and deals can be made.

May 2008 Market results

Posted at 4:56 PM, Jun. 6, 2008

As expected, May 2008 was a spotty month for sales (closings). Adding that to the normal slow market at this time of the year and the results make sense. That's not to say the market isn't "off", but it is hard to tell what is happening during a traditionally slow market time. Having said that, the numbers for escrows don't look so bad and they more accurately reflect "sales" that occurred in may, but did not close. (In my case, I didn't have any closings in May, but I had three properties go into escrow.) Now for the numbers: One home sold for the listing price of $390,000. Three lots sold at a total value of $337,000; about 92% of listing price. -- For the first 5 months of 2008, 15 homes sold at an average price of $432,560 (95% of listing price) and 225 days on market. The median price per square foot was $206. There were 19 land sales at an average price of $139,626 and 125 days on market. The median price per acre was $15,600. June closings and (beyond) include 7 homes and 5 lots. Included in this is one home listed at $1,800,000 which has been on the market for several years. It is still a buyer's market. There are 76 homes currently for sale which represents about a two year supply! They range in price from $105,000 to$1,525,000. Our primary market of under $400,000 homes included 29 properties which is unusually high. --- There are 182 parcels of land for sale ranging from $31,900 to $1,445,000. If you are interested in this area, now is as good a time to buy as I have ever seen! Check our website, www.SonoitaProperties.com, to search for properties that are of interest to you. Happy hunting!

April 2008 sales statistics

Posted at 3:43 PM, May. 6, 2008

April this year turned out pretty much as expected. The buyer traffic has been way off during what is traditionally our peak time. So when we see the numbers for April (most of which are for escrows opened in March), we are only confirming what we really knew. The market is spotty at best. Some escrows, some closings, some buyers, but not the activity that is anticipated for this time of the year. Now for the numbers: There were 4 LAND closings in April for a total of $$405,500. In 2007, there were 9 closings for a total of $2,078,300. There were 2 residential closings in April 2008 totaling $1,385,500 versus 4 the year before totaling $1,715,000. In truth, I think we are seeing more activity already in May which is a bit unusual. Maybe the tide is turning ever so slowly!

Move to the Mountain Empire of Southern Arizona

Posted at 3:52 PM, Apr. 18, 2008

Wait no longer! Our weather can never be any better - and real estate in this area has never been more attractive. Our inventory of homes is at the highest level I have ever seen so there are lots of choices for the discriminating buyer. Also, most of the homes are newer or recently upgraded. The Mountain Empire is the high desert grassland between Patagonia and Elgin Arizona. Situated at altitudes ranging from about 4,000' MSL to 5,500' MSL, the area enjoys almost universally good weather and clear skies. Seldom is there a day above 100 in the summer or in the 30's in the winter. The annual rainfall is about 18" which produces beautiful spring wildflowers and tall native grasses in the summer. A growing wine industry brings tourists from near and far and they and the locals support 10 restaurants so you will never go hungry. Tucson International Airport is only 45 minutes from the Sonoita Crossroads affording easy travel to destinations within the USA and overseas. (I have checked my bag from here to Kenya.) So, come take a look. I think you will agree that this is the perfect place to move to for a second home or for retirement. See you soon!

Sonoita WebCam

Posted at 3:44 PM, Apr. 1, 2008

Finally! Having started this project back in September, I now have my webcam up and running. So, anytime you want to see what it looks like in the Mountain Empire, just go to www.SonoitaProperties.com and look at the live image above the current weather. Oh, by the way, after sunset, the image is basic black....

First Quarter 2008 Sonoita Real Estate Market

Posted at 3:27 PM, Apr. 1, 2008

The angst of the first quarter of a slow year has been slightly, but not much, over-played. There was certainly a lack of buyers coming through the doors of real estate offices in this area, but there were 23 closings. Admittedly, several of the homes had been in escrow since the end of 2007. What is more telling is the fact that there are only 6 properties in escrow at this time; Five of these are lots (3 of which are in Rain Valley) and the other is a home in Patagonia. Now for the numbers: Total sales for the first quarter of this year were $6.2MM versus $7.4MM for 2007. This represents a drop of 17%. Total sales for the month of March were $3.1MM consisting of 5 land transactions and 6 home sales, two of which were in escrow last year. The market is not strong and not yet normal, but it could be worse!

Elgin wine country article

Posted at 10:39 AM, Mar. 5, 2008

The following link will take you to a great online article about this area and the Elgin wineries. Enjoy! Charlie http://www.winetrailsusa.com/Current_Issue.html

February 2008 Sonoita Real Estate Update

Posted at 2:33 PM, Mar. 4, 2008

We need buyers! We have a very good inventory supply of both homes and land, but the buyers have been hiding so far this year. There has been some more traffic in the past week or so through the neighboring restaurant. I am optimistic that we will end the spring talking about the strength of our market versus many other markets in the United States. Now for the numbers: Ten homes were listed in February at an average price of $249 per sq. ft. Prices ranged from $400,000 to $1,800,000. Thirty-three land parcels were listed at a median price of $20,000. This number is imbalanced to the high side due to listings in Three Canyons which are special use lots and a couple of lots less than one acre in size. Prices ranged from $35,000 to 295,000. There were 5 closings totaling $995,000 and consisting of 2 homes and 3 lots. New escrows amounted to $2,601,700 split between 6 homes and 3 lots. This latter statistic may indicate some strength building in the market. We won't know until we see the numbers for March. At the risk of being repetitious, now IS the time to buy. We have willing sellers, lenders with money at historically attractive rates and one of the very best places to call home.

January 2008

Posted at 2:58 PM, Feb. 1, 2008

The first month of 2008 was surely nothing to write home about - unless you don't like to write about good things. Three houses and three lots closed escrow. Those were carryovers from escrows opened in 2007. The total value of those transactions was $2,345,400. Total new escrows included just 4 land transactions. The market value of those transactions was $832,000. The final numbers for 2007 were 67 land transactions valued at $12,290,815 and 45 home transactions valued at$20,916,405. This put the total market at about $33,000,000 which is below our norm of around $40,000,000. Our inventory levels are quite high at this time. The five year average of homes sold is 43. With 64 homes on the market, we have an 18 month supply. Sellers are encouraged to consider carefully their asking price or else be faced with their home remaining on the market for an extended period of time.

Tucson/Pima County real estate outlook for 2008

Posted at 7:07 AM, Jan. 26, 2008

Although this link will take you to an article about the Tucson and Pima County real estate forecast for 2008, it is still relevant for our area. Bottom line: it really is the time to buy. http://www.azbiz.com/articles/2008/01/24/construction_real_estate/doc4787b064eb52b904254157.txt

The Year Past - 2007

Posted at 3:50 PM, Jan. 18, 2008

In many senses 2007 was a "normal" year for the Sonoita market. In many ways it was abnormal. It was normal from the standpoint that about $33,000,000 in sales closed throughout the year. It was abnormal form the standpoint that 45 homes closed (normal is about 25 to 30) and 67 land parcels closed (normal is about 75 to 85). We also had one large commercial transaction valued at $1.35 million. More numbers: The median price for land was $19,000 and the median price for homes was $192 per square foot and $379,000. The largest land transaction was an 80 acre parcel on the Elgin Road which sold for $1,100,000 or $13,750 per acre. We had 7 homes sell for $750,000 or more with the highest price being $1,670,000 for a 3,800 sf house in the Crown C. Has there been any softness in our market? Not really. Most properties are selling within about 8% of asking price, but land prices have had more "negotiation". Not much, though. Our buyers have shifted from buying land and building a house to buying an existing home due to the higher costs of construction at this time. This will change, probably this year, as the housing market firms and prices move up. Given the above, is this the time to buy? Everything I read and my own personal opinion is that there is no time like the present. Prices are good. Mortgage rates are low and money is available.

May to November 2007

Posted at 5:26 PM, Nov. 30, 2007

Is this market normal or is it tracking the national decline? Neither. If we look at the overall activity for this year, it will probably turn out to be a "normal" year. If we look under the microscope, and specifically the past six months, our market is strong but very different. There are currently 50 or so homes on the market between Patagonia, Sonoita and Elgin. That is a bit above normal inventory levels, but when you consider there are 18 homes in escrow, the number is way above the norm. It is particularly skewed when you consider this is a normally slow sales time. So far this year, 35 homes have closed ranging in price from $55,000 to $1,670,000. The median price was $379,000 and the median price per square foot was $185.00. With the price to build a new home, exclusive of land costs, at $200.00 per square foot or more, buying a house in the resale market makes for prudent economic sense. This is undoubtedly what is driving our housing market. Land is another interesting situation. There are about 160 parcels on the market ranging up to 240 acres. So far there have been only 68 sales with the lowest price being $32,000 and the highest being $1,100,000 for an 80 acre parcel. The median price was $122,500 and the median price per acre was $19,075.00. That also means the average parcel size was just under 6.5 acres. It looks as if we are heading to a total market of something over $60,000,000 this year. That is very healthy! If you are looking to buy in our market, I would suggest there is nothing to be gained by waiting. In fact, it would seem that just the opposite might be true. (All figures above are based on dat from the Tucson Association of REALTORS(R) Multiple Listing Service. They are presumed accurate, but may not include all transactions in the market.)

Best values in our market

Posted at 10:29 AM, Nov. 8, 2007

Here are what I consider the best values in this market at this time: Land: Two 4-1/4 acre lots in Elgin at $65,000 each which should be bought together; Sonoita Springs Ranch with lots as inexpensive as $7,000 per acre fro 36 acres; And some of the parcels in Sonoita Estates in the $50's. Homes: 5BR, 3BA on 4+ acres in Sonoita Hills for $449,000; Two quality 2,500 sf homes on 1.6 acres for under $600,000; and the one home for the large family, 5,000 sf on 20 acres for $1,125,000.

Luxury Home Sales

Posted at 10:18 AM, Nov. 8, 2007

The market for higher priced homes in this area is quite healthy this year. Through the end of October there were 4 sales totaling $5,299,000. The most expensive home sold was $1,670,000. Currently there are 3 homes pending and expected to close by the end of the year. They total $2,550,000 as listed. Should they close, we will have our best year in this category since I have been here (9 years). Our previous best year was 5 home sales. The current inventory of luxury homes, (homes priced at $750,00 or more), has 20 listings. These range in price up to $1,750,000. That number represents 3 years of sales so if you have a home in this category, do not expect it to sell quickly!

Recent Home Sale in Sonoita

Posted at 8:41 PM, Oct. 31, 2007

I recently closed a sale on one of the more expensive homes in our area. This was a very special home with an attached guest house and a secondary living (rental) unit on 16-1/2 acres. Very private and wonderful views of the Santa Rita Mountains. The sale price was $960,000.

How's the Sonoita-Elgin market?

Posted at 8:06 PM, Oct. 31, 2007

The 2007 real estate market is now 20 months old. The end is in sight. How has it been so far? What can we expect for the last 2 months? The first 10 months of 2007 have been good. The national real estate dynamics do not seem to be affecting this market - so far. The Tucson MLS has recorded 34 residential sales and 63 land transactions. There has also been one commercial sale. The total sales for land and homes was $27,209,300. The commercial sale was $1,395,000. The most expensive home sale was $1,670,000 in the Crown C. The median sale was $378,000 and the average price per square foot was $192. On the land side the median rice was $120,000 and the median price per acre was $19,000. Most notably, one 80 acre parcel sold for $1,100,000 after only 40 days on the market! The last three months have been quite good considering the time of year. There have been 25 transactions totaling $8,332,896. The average price per square foot was $$157 and the median price per acre was $17,167. Land sales have been slow for both the year to date and the last 3 months while home sales have been fairly strong. My prediction is this will continue and the last two months will be typically slow.

The Recent Sonoita, Elgin and Patagonia land market

Posted at 12:13 PM, Oct. 6, 2007

The land market for the past four months through the end of September has been rather soft. Out of 14 MLS recorded sales, 4 have been in Patagonia (including Three Canyons), 7 in the various sections of Elgin and the remaining 3 in Sonoita. Overall, the median price per acre was just over $21,000. The reason for the somewhat high price is that with the exception of three parcels, the sales were mostly for 4 to 5 acre pieces. These were all about $21,000 per acre and the 10 acre parcels sold for around $16,000 per acre. The best "deal" was a 10 acre parcel in Rain Valley at $150,000 (splitable). THe 4.14 acre parcel that sold in Three Canyons fetched $$178,400. I don't expect the land market to change much until after the first of the year when our "season" begins.

This month's best buys

Posted at 4:12 PM, Oct. 1, 2007

Our Sonoita-Elgin-Patagonia market is quite a bit different this year versus previous years. Along with this, there seem to be some homes and land offerings that are particularly attractive. What follows are what I consider homes and land worthy of taking a hard look at because they represent excellent value in our market. Some are my listings, of course, and most are not. Please contact me for further information on any of these:

Land - Look in Papago Springs for a small lot with water. 2 lots under $65,000. Elgin represents the best value for nominal 5 acre parcels. 2 lots at $65,000. Elgin also has some values on nominal 10 acre lots. 3 lots between $165,000 and $199,000. One 20 acre parcel in Elgin stands out at $225,000. For larger parcels (36+ acres), Sonoita Creek Ranch has several starting at $249,000. For a really large parcel, try the Crown C. 72 acres for 425,000.

Homes - One of the best values on the market for someone not needing a large parcel of land is in Casas Arroyo. 2,348 square feet for $395,000. If you want more land, there is a nice, 20 year old home in Sonoita Hills. 3,180 square feet on 4.16 acres for $449,000. If you need a larger home, try Papago Springs. 3,308 square feet on 1.98 acres for $595,000. If you are looking for lots of land and horse facilities - and are not immediately concerned about a larger home - then there is a real value in the Crown C. 1,400 square foot house on 81 acres and one of the best horse barns in the area. Lastly, if you need a lot of space, there is a 5,000 square foot house on 20 acres close to the crossroads. Price, $1,125,000.

For more information on any of these, please call (877-SONOITA), email (ckrealty@mac.com) or visit our website, www.SonoitaProperties.com

How is the sub-prime debacle affecting the Sonoita market

Posted at 11:25 AM, Sep. 8, 2007

The most frequently asked question today by locals and people contacting my office is: "How is your market being affected by the sub-prime lending crisis and the down-turn in the real estate market?" The answer, quite honestly, is it does not appear to be affected at all! Our year-to-date and past two month statistics certainly indicate a strong market. My own sales and income figures support this. So, here are some numbers: Residential sales for 8 months 2007 were 26 homes with a total value of $13,209,000. (This includes 3 sales over $1MM.) In 2006, we recorded 21 sales with a total value of $7,361,065 (none over $1MM). (All statistics are from the Tucson MLS.) Land sales in the same period were 56 sales valued at $9,221,400 in 2007 and 61 sales valued at $10,604,673. For the most recent 2 month period ending August 31st, residential sales were 10 closings valued at $6,081,000 (Includes 2 sales over $1MM) versus 7 closings valued at $2,349,000 in 2006. Vacant land sales in the same period consisted of 7 closings valued at $644,000 and 9 closings valued at $1,573,000 in 2006. So, our housing market seems to be quite healthy, even the average time on market is down for both homes and land. What does this mean to buyers and sellers in this market? Buyers who are waiting for "better deals" because of what's going on nationally are possibly missing out on the home or lot they want to buy. I see some price adjustments because of an over-optimistic seller, but the general trend will be upward. Sellers whose home or land has not sold, are probably priced too high above their competition in the marketplace. If they don't adjust their prices to the market, buyers will "question" why the property has been on the market so long and will avoid making an offer for fear of "offending" the seller. Thus, attractive properties are going to linger on the market when they actually should have sold.