Encouraging signs in the press about the Tucson home market

Posted at 11:56 AM, May. 13, 2009

 Today's addition of the Arizona Daily Star had an encouraging article about the Tucson market as well as comments about the arizona markets in general. Please view this information via the attached link.

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/business/292703.php

Have a wonderful day!

Charlie

April Housing Report for Tucson

Posted at 12:14 PM, May. 6, 2009

 Hi folks:

The following link will bring up the April 2009 housing report for Tucson. This is very encouraging. Since our market tends to lag Tucson, I'm even more optimistic that it will not be too much longer before we start seeing more buyers in our market as well!

 

Stay tuned....

 

Charlie

 

Please click the following link to access the MLS Statistics for the month of April: http://www.tucsonrealtors.org/tar-v2/MLS_Stats_Apr.pdf

The whole story

Posted at 9:48 AM, Apr. 24, 2009

 Hi folks:

I thought you might be interested in the whole news release from the National Association of REALTORS® for March. For the west, the picture is much better than the headlines you may have been reading. - Sorry it is do lengthy, but I thought you might like to sift through the detail for markets.

WASHINGTON, April 23, 2009

Existing-home sales eased in March but first-time buyers are responding to low mortgage interest rates and tax credits, according to the National Association of Realtors^®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – declined 3.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 4.57 million units in March from a downwardly revised level of 4.71 million in February, and were 7.1 percent lower than the 4.92 million-unit pace in March 2008.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market appears to be stabilizing with modest monthly ups and downs, and that first-time buyers are driving the market. “The share of lower priced home sales has trended up, indicating a return of many first-time buyers, which we also see in a parallel member survey,” he said. “Sales in the upper price ranges remain stalled because of higher interest rates on jumbo loans.”

Although prices rose from February to March, the national median existing-home price² for all housing types was $175,200, down 12.4 percent from March 2008. The price increase from February to March was 4.2 percent, which is much higher than the typical 1.8 percent seasonal increase between those two months. Distressed properties, which accounted for just over half of all transactions in March, typically are selling for 20 percent less than traditional homes.

An NAR practitioner survey in March showed first-time buyers accounted for 53 percent of transactions, based largely on contracts offered before the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit became available. “Buyer traffic has been rising, and real estate offices are getting phone inquires about the tax credit,” Yun said. “By early summer we should be seeing a positive impact on home sales from record-low mortgage interest rates in addition to the stimulus provisions.”

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers are crucial at this stage of a housing recovery. “The housing market always heals from the bottom up, and with large numbers of first-time buyers entering the market it will become a little easier for sellers to trade up or down, according to their needs,” he said.

“Although homeownership builds wealth over the long term, buyers need to evaluate their options. In this market, buyers and sellers who use a Realtor^® to represent them are making a smart move,” McMillan said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 5.00 percent in March from 5.13 percent in February; the rate was 5.97 percent in March 2008; data collection began in 1971.

“Record-high housing affordability conditions are helping markets recover, with home sales higher than a year ago in Minneapolis, Northern Virginia, Las Vegas, Phoenix and most areas of California and Florida.”

Total housing inventory at the end of March fell 1.6 percent to 3.74 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.8-month supply³ at the current sales pace, compared with a 9.7-month supply in February.

Single-family home sales slipped 2.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in March from a pace of 4.22 million in February, and are 5.7 percent below the 4.35 million-unit pace in March 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in March, which is 11.5 percent lower than a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 4.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 470,000 units in March from 490,000 in February, and are 17.8 percent below the 572,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price⁴ was $177,600 in March, down 18.7 percent from March 2008.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 8.0 percent to an annual pace of 690,000 in March, and are 22.5 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $231,700, down 18.4 percent from March 2008.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest were unchanged in March at a pace of 1.04 million but are 11.1 percent lower than March 2008. The median price in the Midwest was $141,300, which is 6.1 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales slipped 1.7 percent to an annual pace of 1.71 million in March and are 10.9 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $146,900, down 12.2 percent from March 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 4.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.13 million in March but are 18.9 percent higher than a year earlier. The median price in the West was $252,400, which is 11.1 percent below March 2008.

# # #

NOTE: References to performance in states or metro areas are from unpublished raw data used to analyze regional trends; please contact your local association of Realtors^® for more information.

¹The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

²The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

³Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982.

⁴Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for April will be released May 27. The next Pending Home Sales Index & Forecast is scheduled for May 4; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.

Real Estate may be turning around

Posted at 2:09 PM, Apr. 14, 2009

 This is a very encouraging article. I hope you enjoy it!

 

Real Estate Outlook: A Turnaround May Be In Sight
-------------------------------------------------
The signs are all there. Sales and pending sales of homes have turned up sharply in hard-hit markets. House prices are more affordable. Consumer confidence polls show slight but noteworthy improvements in the public's outlook.

Read the Full Story At: 

http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20090414_realestateoutlook.htm

A quarter to remember - but do we want to?

Posted at 1:21 PM, Apr. 7, 2009

 I was so excited to see the numbers for the first quarter of this year, I couldn't wait any longer! When I saw them, they were unfortunately even worse than I had expected. Myself, and the other agents in this market, have been saying: "Where are the buyers? The inventory is great and so are the prices." Well, they were, and still are, home listening to the news media about how bad things are. Too bad, as only the really observant and astute buyer is going to be taking advantage of buying at the bottom of the market. I am expecting that most of the people that come through this office next year will be saying: "I should have bought last year!"

The 10 people who closed escrow this past quarter and the 9 who have properties in escrow will be the happy buyers. I applaud them for being astute and going ahead with their plans to buy in this great area and not listen to the dower news in the media.

These folks closed, (TARMLS statistics), transactions totaling $1,929,626. Transactions pending close of escrow total $3,325,00. By way of comparison, in 2008 Q1 $6,473,300 closed escrow in 23 transactions.

Yes, I will remember the first quarter of 2009!

More reasons to buy

Posted at 11:47 AM, Mar. 31, 2009

 The attached link goes to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal. More good news which will hopefully stimulate more buyer interest.

Optimism....

Posted at 2:06 PM, Mar. 3, 2009

I guess I have been reading and listening to the national media too much. In fact, it did not seem as if there had been enough activity in our market for this time of the year. This is the time when we have the most visitors and hence the most opportunity to write a contract. But now, I have taken my head out of the media sandpit for a few moments and looked at our local statistics. It's both good and bad.

Transaction numbers are about the same as last year: 11 versus 12. However, this year's volume is less than half of last year in terms of closed sales: $1,525,000 versus $3,407,000 per TARMLS information. Okay, so what's the good news? At the end of February there were 10 escrows with a total list price value of $5,793,000! That seems like very god news to me.

We are still seeing a lot of listing activity and some of that is sellers switching agents. The net of the escrows, the withdrawals from the market and switching from agent to agent has left us with 76 homes on the market (about a two year supply) and 157 lots. It is a buyer's market. So, come on up to the Mountain Empire and let us show you around!

2008 - The year in review!

Posted at 2:38 PM, Jan. 27, 2009

 One thing is certain: 2009 did not end up the way it started - or the way anyone would have wanted. In fact, this past year is about the worst market since I arrived 10 years ago although it was not my lowest income year. So here are the basic facts, with all statistics from the Tucson MLS: We had 107 total transactions (buy side and sell side, and land and homes) amounting to $33,000,000. For comparison, in 2007 the numbers were: $65,300,000 spread over 214 transactions - almost exactly twice 2008! I doubt if anyone in this market started the year with that as their forecast.

Where are we headed? The trendline for total listings is about flat; the trendline for under contracts is trending up; and the trendline for solds is also trending up. That is all very positive news for this market! There are currently 270 properties (land and homes) on the market about the same as in the previous 2 years. The median for sale price is $247,000 up slightly from 2006 ($239,000), but down 10% from 2007 ($272,950). The down trend in the median price from last year is most likely due to the softness in land prices.

Bottom line: And I don't want to sound like a broken record, but now is the time to buy. We will never know when we hit the absolute bottom in a market until we look back and see it has already happened! We are close enough now (if we haven't passed it) to be fairly certain that this is a great buying opportunity!

Home Buyer Survey

Posted at 9:18 AM, Dec. 12, 2008

 The attached article from Realty Times is very interesting. The buyer continues to rely more and more on the internet to search for a home. I strive to have the very best presence for my clients on every site that makes sense.

Enjoy!

Pricing Strategy for the current market

Posted at 8:24 AM, Dec. 2, 2008

The following link takes you to an informative article courtesy of RisMedia. It is excellent food for thought for sellers, buyers and REALTORS® in today's market.

Enjoy!,

Charlie

http://rismedia.com/wp/2008-12-01/beyond-listing-agreements-where-the-diamonds-are-in-real-estate/

Another opinion on the current Tucson real estate market

Posted at 8:49 AM, Nov. 10, 2008

 The following link came across my email this morning. I think it is pretty objective about the general Tucson market and may even provide an insight into other markets as well.

 

Enjoy!

Charlie

Land, home sales quiet for the moment, but growth, sales will be back

By Ed Egger, Inside Tucson Business
Published on Monday, November 10, 2008

 

http://www.azbiz.com/articles/2008/11/10/news/doc49147e7931210104085674.txt

 

 

Where are we in the current real estate cycle

Posted at 3:48 PM, Oct. 22, 2008

 Every so often during the current economic climate you come across an article that is well written and makes sense. So, please click on the following link if you want to know where we are in the current real estate cycle and what you should do..

http://rismedia.com/wp/2008-10-21/where-we-are-in-the-current-real-estate-cycle-and-what-it-means/

 

 

Interview with NAR Chief Economist

Posted at 9:07 AM, Sep. 24, 2008

 Clicking on the following link will bring up a recent podcast with the Chief Economist of NAR, Lawrence Yun. He believes that in most housing markets we may have reached the bottom and 2009 will be a strong year for real estate.

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1803212607/bctid1811454285

Charlie

Buy Land!

Posted at 2:32 PM, Sep. 21, 2008

With all the turmoil in the various financial markets and the inevitable question of "what do I do with my investable money now?", I have the answer: Buy land! With the cost of building a new home (and the associated hassels) many people in the past two years have opted to by "used" homes. This has caused land prices to pause and recently decrease in many markets. Our market is no exception and 5 acre parcels which we never had enough of are plentiful at this time. Prices are good and owner financing is available. (Where else can you get 7 or 8 per cent on your money?) So, if you are wondering where to make your next investment, I say buy land. Call me or check our website, www.sonoitaproperties.com, for the latest inventory.

August Mountain Empire real estate summary

Posted at 4:14 PM, Sep. 9, 2008

 How are we doing in the Mountain Empire this past month? Not bad in some respects. In a typically slow period of our selling year, we had 2 lots and 5 homes go in escrow. Sales is another story as only one lot sold and that was for $88,000. In 2007, 4 homes and 6 lots closed escrow for a total of $3,500,000. 

Since a month does not a year make, we need to look at the year to date before forming a conclusion. In 2007 there had been 57 closed transactions through 8 months. These were split almost equally between land and homes. The total was $22,784,000. In the same time period this year, there were 25 transactions closed for a total of $14,201,000. So, we have had less than half as many closings and dollar volume is off 38%. The good news for sellers is that the price per square foot is up to $225 for $193. The bad news for sellers is that the price per acre is down to $15,548 from $19,500. Thus, as we have said for a while, land sales are still trying to recover from the boom times while home sales are recovering albeit with fewer transactions.

I continue to see more internet and foot traffic and have recently written contracts for both homes and land. To see waht is for sale, please check our website, www.sonoitaproperties.com.

 

July 2008 Market Report

Posted at 1:48 PM, Aug. 12, 2008

No real surprises this month. In 2007, we had 4 home transactions and in 2008 we had 6. The total volume was down about 10% as the increased number represented more less expensive homes being sold. For the homes sold in 2008, the median price per square foot was $206. Land sales accounted for 2 transactions this July and 3 last July. Dollar volume in 2007 was considerably higher.

The year to date numbers are probably more meaningful. For 7 months in 2008, there were 20 home sales. The median price was $225 per square foot and the average time on market was 216 days. In 2007 we recorded 22 home sales at a median price of $193 per square foot and 101 days on market. Land sales are the real story of this year as they are definitely sparse or spotty. This year for the first 7 months, 26 lots were sold at a median price of $15,450 per acre. But, in 2008, 51 lots sold at a median price of $19,500 per acre! Where have all the folks gone that want to build their dream home in the Mountain Empire??

How about actual deals in July 2008? Well, one home and one lot went into escrow. Certainly nothing positive to write home about.

As the Tucson market continues to stabilize, our market will again trend up both in price and activity. For those of you waiting for a "better deal', I would not hang out on the sidelines much longer. I just had a client lose a home in a bidding war and this home had been on the market for almost 9 months! I have a small business for sale. In over nine months there has been minimal activity on this opportunity. Now there are three people expressing serious interest.

June market update

Posted at 10:26 AM, Jul. 18, 2008

I would first like to begin by saying that this is not a "bad" market. It may be spotty, but properties are selling. They are selling if they are perceived as "good Values" to the consumer. The buyer is there. Money is there. And your home or lot will sell if it is priced properly. Any REALTOR® who happens to be moaning about how bad the market is, either has listing that are not properly priced or is not marketing himself or herself to attract buyers to the good values in the market. That said, here come the numbers:

The residential market in June saw 2 homes go into escrow and one escrow close. This compares with 2007 where 2 homes also went into escrow and 2 homes closed. (Since June is not a "hot" time in our market, these numbers do not mean the market is anything other than normal for the month.) For the six months of 2008, we are showing 16 homes that sold. The total value of those homes that sold was $6,785,904. The median price per square foot was $213 and the average days on market was 229. Interestingly, there were three sales over $700,000 which is the higher end of our market. In the first six months of 2007, 16 homes also sold. The total value was $7,128,000, the median price per square foot was $183.95 and the average days on market was 110. Only one home sold for more than $700,000. So for the first 6 months of 2008, it would seem as if the market is not off very much or not at all for homes, and prices may even be up a bit. So much for doom and gloom in the Sonoita-Elgin-Patagonia home market!

The land/lot market is a little different continuing its "softness" that began 12-18 months ago. June 2008 saw 1 lot go into escrow and 4 escrows close. In JUne of 2007, 1 lot also went into escrow and 5 lots closed. Not much difference. For the first six months of 2008, there were 23 land sales with a median price per acre of $15,500. The total value was $3,543,840 and these lots were on the market for an average of 134 days. In the previous year, 49 lots closed escrow (more than twice as many!) with a total value of $8,751,890. The median price was $19,150 and the average time on market was 82 days.

In summary: The housing market is just fine, but the land market is definitely "off" with sales down and the median price per acre down almost 20%. I do not see the land market improving until our home inventory declines, (there are more than 70 on the market today representing a two year supply), and the cost to build retreats. For sellers, pricing is everything at this time if you want to sell. For buyers, there is much to choose from and now is a good time to buy.

The most frequently asked real estate question today

Posted at 2:28 PM, Jun. 18, 2008

Hardly a day goes by when I don't encounter someone I know who asks me: "How is the real estate market?" The answer is simply, "spotty". There are buyers showing up, but there are very few who are actually purchasing property. The current buyer expectation is that there will be a better deal tomorrow. That's not necessarily so - and when tomorrow comes and prices are rising, that buyer is not going to be happy. So, if you are serious about buying property in this market, do it now. There is plenty to choose from and deals can be made.

May 2008 Market results

Posted at 4:56 PM, Jun. 6, 2008

As expected, May 2008 was a spotty month for sales (closings). Adding that to the normal slow market at this time of the year and the results make sense. That's not to say the market isn't "off", but it is hard to tell what is happening during a traditionally slow market time. Having said that, the numbers for escrows don't look so bad and they more accurately reflect "sales" that occurred in may, but did not close. (In my case, I didn't have any closings in May, but I had three properties go into escrow.) Now for the numbers: One home sold for the listing price of $390,000. Three lots sold at a total value of $337,000; about 92% of listing price. -- For the first 5 months of 2008, 15 homes sold at an average price of $432,560 (95% of listing price) and 225 days on market. The median price per square foot was $206. There were 19 land sales at an average price of $139,626 and 125 days on market. The median price per acre was $15,600. June closings and (beyond) include 7 homes and 5 lots. Included in this is one home listed at $1,800,000 which has been on the market for several years. It is still a buyer's market. There are 76 homes currently for sale which represents about a two year supply! They range in price from $105,000 to$1,525,000. Our primary market of under $400,000 homes included 29 properties which is unusually high. --- There are 182 parcels of land for sale ranging from $31,900 to $1,445,000. If you are interested in this area, now is as good a time to buy as I have ever seen! Check our website, www.SonoitaProperties.com, to search for properties that are of interest to you. Happy hunting!

April 2008 sales statistics

Posted at 3:43 PM, May. 6, 2008

April this year turned out pretty much as expected. The buyer traffic has been way off during what is traditionally our peak time. So when we see the numbers for April (most of which are for escrows opened in March), we are only confirming what we really knew. The market is spotty at best. Some escrows, some closings, some buyers, but not the activity that is anticipated for this time of the year. Now for the numbers: There were 4 LAND closings in April for a total of $$405,500. In 2007, there were 9 closings for a total of $2,078,300. There were 2 residential closings in April 2008 totaling $1,385,500 versus 4 the year before totaling $1,715,000. In truth, I think we are seeing more activity already in May which is a bit unusual. Maybe the tide is turning ever so slowly!