In a word: Yes!

The anecdotal evidence

I’m listing a house for a friend in Queen Creek, one of Phoenix’s “bedroom” communities – hit particularly hard by the real estate crash.  She’s short-selling her house because it’s worth about $150,000, but she owes $290,000. 

When we were making a listing plan the other day, she asked how long she should expect the house to be on the market.  We looked at the MLS for sales of similar houses in her neighborhood and found that two of the same model at about the same price had sold in the last week – one had been on the market for 12 days and the other had been on the market for 8 days.

That echoes the experience of many buyers and sellers in the areas hardest hit by the real estate crisis.  In some Phoenix areas, buyers are once again entering bidding wars.  One buyer I know entered 12 bids (all at market value) and was outbid every time.

So that’s the anecdotal evidence that buyers are once again buying.  Do hard numbers back it up?

In another word: Yes!

The hard numbers

Active listings

Active listings is a measure of the number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS.  As demand heats up – as more buyers enter the market, the number of active listings falls.  As the following charts show, active listings in both Scottsdale and Phoenix haven fallen dramatically over the course of the year.  That’s great news!

Months supply

One indicator of the health of the housing market is “months supply” – basically the number of months it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market, at the current rate of sales.  Months supply in Phoenix peaked at more than 20 months in early 2008 (as you can see from the chart below).  Now it’s back to pre-boom/bust levels.  In Scottsdale, months supply is down from its height-of-the-crisis peaks, but still a bit above pre-boom/bust levels.

So the hard numbers do bear out my anecdotal evidence that buyers are once again – yes, buying.

What do you think?  Click on the “Comments” link below and join the discussion!