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MyPhoenixMLS.com Blog

Blog by Bob Stahl
Arizona

Knowledge is power. The MyPhoenixMLS Blog keeps consumers informed about everything real estate, offering how-to articles on everything about owning a home, from how to protect yourself from foreclosure to seasonal maintenance tips. Advice for real estate investors. Expert analysis of the latest real estate news and market trends. And much more. All designed to keep homeowners, buyers, and sellers one step ahead.

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Investor opportunity: Phoenix named 1 of 10 lowest-risk real estate markets

Oct. 22, 2007

Last week, I wrote about Phoenix being named one of the 10 best places for real estate deals (according to Forbes). Phoenix is, and will continue to be, a great place to find real estate deals because of economic fundamentals - factors like strong job growth and population increases that underpin a strong real estate market.

If that's not enough good news for investors in the Phoenix market, here's some more: Phoenix rates among the 10 least risky real estate markets. That's according to mortgage risk management and fraud protection company First American CoreLogic Inc.

According to an Inman news story out late last week, Mark Fleming, CEO of First American CoreLogic Inc., said that while there was rapid price appreciation here over the last few years, house prices are not the most important driver of mortgage delinquency risk. Instead, unemployment and wage growth are the fundamental drivers. Because job and wage growth are strong in Phoenix, the real estate market here is fundamentally strong.

The combination of a fundamentally strong real estate market and a relatively high rate of foreclosures creates unique opportunities for investors in the Phoenix area. For those willing to ride out the rest of the market correction, buying properties in foreclosure now should yield a good return as the fundamental strength in the Phoenix real estate market brings home values back up.

First American CoreLogic Inc. listed the 10 lowest-risk markets as:

  • West Palm Beach-Boca R.-Boynton, FL
  • Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
  • Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano-Deerfield, FL
  • Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA
  • Washington, D.C.-Arlington-Alexandria, VA
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
  • Bethesda-Gaithersburg-Fred., MD
  • Richmond, VA
  • Salt Lake City, UT
  • Honolulu, HI

The 10 highest-risk markets were those with weak economic fundamentals, including:

  • Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI
  • Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI
  • Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH
  • Dayton, OH
  • Toledo, OH
  • Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
  • Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
  • Memphis, TN
  • Akron, OH
  • McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX

Late last week, fellow blogger Matt Carter tackled the difference between First American CoreLogic's report listing Phoenix as one of the least risky markets (for delinquencies in the next 6-12 months) and PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.'s report that Phoenix is one of the markets at greatest risk for home price declines in the next two years. He wrote:

[First American CoreLogic CEO] Fleming said the Core Mortgage Risk Index emphasizes economic issues like employment and wage growth over home-price appreciation. An event like job loss or a divorce is still the most likely trigger for delinquency, he said, and foreclosures are often a combination of economic stresses and negative equity positions that can result from price declines.

PMI also looks at economic issues, but its report puts more emphasis on factors like home-price appreciation, price volatility, and affordability.

Cities in California and Florida [and Arizona] dominate the list of markets where PMI predicts home price declines are most likely in the next two years. That's because of the rapid and sustained price appreciation these markets saw during the boom, the analysts who put that report together told me.

Eight of First American CoreLogic's 10 riskiest markets for mortgage delinquencies were in Michigan and Ohio, where the economy has suffered because of layoffs in the auto industry and related businesses. PMI, on the other hand, sees the risk of price declines in many markets in the Midwest as low, because they didn't see rapid price appreciation during the boom.

Of course, the industrial rust belt states largely bypassed by the housing boom -- Michigan, Ohio and Indiana -- and states with healthy economies that saw some of the most extreme runups in price -- Nevada, Florida, California and Arizona -- are all on RealtyTrac's list of 10 states now experiencing the highest rates of foreclosure.

None of us have a crystal ball (I wish!). But the economy in Arizona is strong. People are moving here in record numbers. Companies are creating new jobs. Wages are increasing. Those are all factors that point toward a strong real estate market over time. And because the market is now correcting itself after the housing boom, it's a great time to jump in.

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