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2010-03-10 00:10:25

The Bottom Has Passed & The Market Is Good Again


Dare I even breathe these words, let alone put them in writing for a National publication? I may be as nutty as a fruit cake, or as brain dead as two week old road kill, but I’m seeing and sensing a market shift.
However before I go any further and declare the bottom has passed, let me throw in a caveat. I do believe we have seen the bottom and things will improve and improve pretty rapidly if, and only if, we the American people, are successful in taking away the checkbook and credit cards from Washington D.C.
If I ran my business like the crowd in Washington runs our government I wouldn’t be around long enough to successfully flush the toilet before I was out of business and bankrupt, but I digress.
The following reasons are why I say the market has passed.
As I have written numerous times over the past few years, the day would finally arrive that we would start to see the end of the line with inventory. And we are seeing it. I know a lot of you will say we still have a tsunami of foreclosures ahead of us, but I doubt it. We will see some foreclosures. But too many programs and to much effort have been implemented to help slow down foreclosures, for the efforts not to produce some amount of success.
So our inventory continues to shrink.
In my last article I spoke about my passion of visiting the troops (Realtors) in the trenches by visiting Open Houses. When I visited Open Houses three weeks ago, I was stunned at the amount of buyer traffic that I witnessed. However since then it has picked up even more. Now I grant you, I only visit Open Houses in South West Floridasince that’s where I live, but I have heard from many Realtors in other state,s that it isn’t unusual to have 10 or more prospective buyers show up at an Open House recently.
That is a truly amazing number. It’s as strong or stronger than the boom days of 2004 and 2005.
But here is where I can really testify as to what I’m seeing across the country. As many followers of my columns know, we are located in 11 states and have hundreds of Realtors. I actively encourage our Realtors to communicate with me to share what’s happening in the field. I’m hearing some incredible stories.
Just two weeks ago we reached a new record in pending sales. I was stoked, until last week when we set another record, and this record was 24% higher than the record week prior.
At this pace we will do 4,000 sales this year, and that’s if we don’t hire another Realtor, and we plan on hiring another 1,000 Realtors. For a new start up company that’s just two years old that is an incredible number. I know other Brokers are starting to see more sales as well. A builder friend of mine that used to build 50 to 60 homes 2 years ago, didn’t build a single home. At this moment in time he now has over 12 homes in the planning stages or under construction.
I want to believe, like the buyers apparently do, that the bottom has passed.
Then again I pray every day that we are also successful at taking away the checkbook and credit cards from Washington. Maybe we should require all elected officials to have a business and economic degree. Then they might understand that if you don’t have the money to pay your debts, you go out of business.
Good Luck to everyone. The bottom has passed. I officially declare it.
James A. Crumbaugh III is CEO of Allison James Estates and Homes can be reached at . Check out the Allison James Group on 


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