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2010-06-24 23:45:33

Predictive U.S. National RECI Rises 0.70 Percent in June – Flat Vs. Year Ago

United States real estate broker and agent forward-looking confidence edged higher in Point2 Technologies’ (“Point2”) monthly Real Estate Confidence Index (“RECI”) survey in June, rising 0.70 percent to 5.76 on the RECI scale of 1 – 10, versus last month. Relatively strong long-term optimism sent the Index’s 12 – 18 month optimism/pessimism variable higher by three percentage points and was the key catalyst behind the upside.
 
Current Sentiment, one of the three key Index components that tracks survey respondent views of existing market conditions, dropped by 1.92 percent, to 5.12 on the 1 – 10 RECI scale (10 being “Good” and 1 being “Bad”).
 
The Short-Term (3 – 6 months) optimism/pessimism variable rose marginally, by 0.53 percent, to 5.64.
 
Closing at 5.76 on the 1 – 10 RECI scale, the national Index remained virtually flat in the June 2010 survey, versus year ago (-0.17%).
 
Since the RECI was launched in June 2009, broker and agent sentiment has held the Index between the 5.59 low recorded in October 2009 and the high of 6.03 hit in November that year. The RECI peaked just ahead of the expiry of the first federal government tax credit incentive that offered USD $8,000 to new home buyers.
 
Notably, the lack of a clear directional improvement in broker and agent outlook over the past twelve months indicates that while government incentive programs have helped to spur market activity, a self sustaining recovery remained a challenge.
 
Feedback offered by 2574 real estate brokers and agents who participated in the June 2010 survey from across every US state sent mixed signals regarding the outlook for the market, even though the longer term view remained relatively strong.
 
In most states, respondents frequently referred to healthy sales activity and optimism, with some citing low interest rates as the primary driver. In some pockets around the country, shorter time-on-market was also reported, which indicates a relatively more fluid sales and financing environment in the respective regions.
 
Concerns over employment and job insecurity, lending obstacles and more foreclosures coming to market were however persistent. Brokers and agents nationwide expect these issues will apply downward pressure on home values for the foreseeable future, and, in cases, the next several years.
 
Uncertainty over the future of the market following the lapse of government incentives was also repeatedly discussed and captured in the June 2010 RECI Report. The concern highlights growing reliance on government intervention in many parts of the country. Sudden slowdown in sales activity right after the April 30, 2010 expiry of the latest program was felt and reported by sales professionals in a number of states.
 
The June 2010 RECI Report, including respondent commentaries presented for each state individually, and a heat map highlighting RECI and market conditions in each state can be accessed at www.RealEstateConfidenceIndex.com.
 
RECI Survey Instrument and Methodology
 
The Real Estate Confidence Index (RECI) is a predictive market barometer that tracks the real estate market opinions of tens of thousands of licensed real estate professionals, brokers and agents, across the United States, accounting for seasonality, on a scale of one to ten (1 being “bad” and 10 being “good”). The RECI also rates respondent sentiment for market conditions 3 – 6 months and 6 – 12 months into the future on a ten-point scale (1 being “pessimistic” and 10 being “optimistic”). The median across all three time periods represents the Index measure for the month.
 
The RECI is open to the Point2 Agent membership and to tens of thousands of additional licensed real estate professionals across the nation at the beginning of each month. Respondents complete a simple, four
question survey through third party survey solution providers, Survey Monkey. The data is tabulated electronically, median averages surfaced for quantitative questions, and qualitative feedback and respondent commentaries are captured and presented in Point2’s monthly RECI Summary Report.
 
About Point2 Technologies Inc.
 
Point2 Technologies (www.Point2.com) provides inventory management and online marketing software solutions to the real estate and heavy equipment industries across 120 countries.
 
More information about Point2 can be found at www.Point2.com. For ongoing news about Point2, please visit www.point2.com/news.asp.
 


Point2® is a trademark of Point2 Technologies Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of the respective companies with which they are associated.
 
Media Contact and Resources:
-          RECI Widget updated dynamically each month: www.realestateconfidenceindex.com
-          RECI May 2010 Report: Download PDF.
 

For questions or to request an interview, please contact Roger Noujeim at rnoujeim@point2.com or at 888-955-7900. Custom data, graphics and charts featured on the RECI website or within the RECI report can also be obtained in high resolution, upon request.

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