Market Update: Portland, Oregon Housing Market Q3 2009 Part 2 : ALL ABOUT.....Portland.Oregon.Real Estate

Market Update: Portland, Oregon Housing Market Q3 2009 Part 2

Date: Nov. 22, 2009
Tags: Market Update, Housing, Real Estate, Q3 2009, Portland, Oregon

Here is Part 2 about our Portland, Oregon real estate market for Q3 2009:

OREGON HOUSING PRICES

OregonLive recently reported that Oregon will see 5th worst housing market in the next year:

Oregon's single-family home prices will fall another 1.8 percent between September 2009 and 2010, the fifth biggest decline projected in the First American CoreLogic Home Price Index. The states expected to do worse than Oregon: Michigan (-6.8 percent), Arizona (-4.8 percent), Washington (-4.2 percent) and Wyoming (-3.3 percent). Looking back, Oregon had the sixth-biggest price decline between September 2008 and September 2009 at 12.6 percent. Ahead of Oregon: Nevada (-25.5 percent), Arizona (-20.3 percent), Florida (-17.7 percent), Michigan (-15.1 percent) and Idaho (-14.9 percent). In both cases, Oregon is doing worse than the national average. First American's national forecast projects housing prices will bottom out in most markets by March 2010, then turn positive. That obviously won't be true for Oregon or Portland. First American's forecast for the Portland market calls for prices to fall 1 percent between September 2009 and September 2010. Here's a spreadsheet with First American's forecast for the 50 states.

DISTRESSED PROPERTIES IN PORTLAND

21.9% of listings distressed in PDX

The AP reports that homeowners’ inability to keep up with payments is now more due tounemployment, rather than the sub-prime loans that contributed to the initial increase in foreclosures.

The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicates that the rate of foreclosure for people with fixed rate loans and good credit is on the rise.

A quick search on RMLSweb reveals that in the Portland Metro area, distressed properties currently make up 21.9% of active residential listings (this number takes into account listings that require third-party approval, as this typically indicates a short sale and those that are marked as bank-owned).

During the third quarter, Oregon had the nation’s 44th-highest rate of homeowners who were late on their payments, and the 21st-highest rate of homeowners in foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Oregon has a lower-than-average number of homeowners with sub-prime loans, but a higher-than-average number of homeowners with alternative or “Alt A” loans. Those include interest-only loans, Option ARM loans, or “stated income” loans, where there was no required documentation of their ability to pay.

Alt A loans, like sub-prime loans, are falling disproportionately into foreclosure. However, the Mortgage Bankers report does not track Alt A loans as a separate category.

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