Which way is the market going? Have we passed the bottom yet or will prices decline further? These are all questions that I am constantly asked as I talk to people who plan to buy and/or sell a home but are unsure as to when they should be making their move. The answers are hard to find, due in no small part to the media who seem incapable of providing accurate local information. And make no mistake, Real Estate is LOCAL, but an analysis of data from 2007 compiled by the Contra Costa Multiple Listing Service should help to put things into perspective.

By the middle of last year, it was apparent that we were already seeing signs of recovery. Then came all the Bad News about the Sub-Prime Scandal with the resulting foreclosures and short-sales. In reality, this affected a  very small percentage of homeowners in our area but the message was out there and negative news resulted in lack of confidence. The result is clear to see in the December figures. Home prices declined  although the percentages were very small compared with other parts of the Bay Area. Our part of Contra Costa County benefits from its own micro-economy which is extremely healthy and the figures here demonstrate the resilience of our local real estate market. In fact looking at such small percentage changes in our part of the East Bay, the indication is that we have either passed the bottom of the market or we are very close to it.

Yes, 2007 was a challenging year in Real Estate but the figures here indicate that recovery is in sight, at least in our area. That is not to say that we will experience price increases like we saw in the early 2000s but it does suggest a return to normalcy in 2008 with prices holding steady, then perhaps a return to moderate increases in home values in early 2009.