Can you believe that we are just entering the final quarter of the year? Already the weather is turning cooler and the nights are beginning to draw in. Soon the Holiday Season will be upon us and then another year will be over.

So what of the real estate market for 2007 so far in the San Ramon Valley? Lets ignore the hype and just look at the facts. The chart on the left shows real estate sales activity from June 2006 to August 2007. Actual sales activity was fairly steady for the first half of the year then dropped off somewhat in July and August. This is a normal pattern. Remember that people typically take their vacations in July and August when school is out so real estate activity almost always declines then.

Perhaps of more concern to sellers is the fact that inventory levels have steadily been increasing. To some extent, this is due to increased numbers of foreclosures and distress sales. At the end of August there was 14 months inventory on the market and when one considers that anything above 9 months inventory is considered to be a buyers market, it is apparent that buyers must really be able to call the shots in Contra Costa County right now.

Or can they? Look at the second graph (below right). This shows Alamo, Danville and San Ramon for the same period. There are similarities in patterns and trends but the reality is that there was only 5 months inventory at the end of August and this would be considered a neutral market. Just a glance shows that the market this year is much healthier than it was at the same time last year. Still not where we would like to see it of course. In an ideal, balanced market, there will be around 3 or 4 months of inventory.

The fact is, nice homes that are presented and marketed professionally and priced right are selling. So why all the doom and gloom?
Again I blame the media. You can turn on the television any day you like and hear that the real estate market is in a bad way. There are hundreds if not thousands of foreclosures and short sales and we have not even seen the tip of the iceberg yet. This is all absolute poppycock of course!

ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!

You can't compare the real estate economy in North Dakota with Northern California. You can't even compare real estate in Antioch and Pittsburg with Danville and San Ramon as is well illustrated by the above charts. There is just no relationship!

The reality is that now is a good time to buy a home in our area. Prices are unlikely to fall much lower if at all and trying to pick the bottom (or the top) of any market is a mug's game. Now is particularly a good time if you are trading up as values have declined over the past 2 years and therefore so has the differential.

It's also a good time to be selling provided that your expectations are realistic. There are many overpriced homes on the market which means that a home listed at true market value stands out.

I welcome your comments and questions.