Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

Danville, California

Observations and information of interest to home buyers and sellers in San Ramon, Danville and surrounding areas in Contra Costa's San Ramon Valley. Real estate market updates, happening's and reviews of local area restaurants.

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Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

January 2008

At Last - Good News For Danville and San Ramon Real Estate

Jan. 25, 2008

Categorized in: General Observations

Tagged with: economy, home values, loans, mortgages

At last it looks like we have a good chance of seeing more movement in the California real estate market this year.

Earlier this week, Governor Schwarzenegger put his support behind the proposition to increase the conforming loan limits to $625,000 for California home loans in a letter to President Bush. Yesterday, Bush announced his support of increasing the conforming loan amount to $625,000 as part of his $150 billion stimulus package. The expectation is that the Stimulus Bill will be fast-tracked through Congress as early as next week and this will quickly be followed by Senate approval.

This means that the conforming limit for California home loans could be increased to $625,000 as soon as next month.

The effect on many potential home buyers as a result of this increase will be significant. First of all, it should create impetus among first-time home buyers who will now be able to afford to get into the home ownership market. And remember that interest rates are still trending downwards which helps everybody.

This will create a knock-on effect as people who are planning to trade up to larger homes will now have a much improved chance of finding a buyer for their existing home more quickly.

Even without this significant change, I have been predicting that homes in Danville, San Ramon and surrounding areas in the San Ramon Valley and Lamorinda would maintain their existing value through 2008 and I also expected to see days on market remain at their present levels. In other words, a static year for real estate in Central Contra Costa County. Now, I expect to see much increased activity, starting with the mid-priced segment of the market (single family homes under $1 million) then spreading to lower and higher priced segments.

Will we see prices increase? Probably not until the excess inventory has been taken up but that could happen fairly quickly, after all, we are coming into Spring which is traditionally the busiest time of year for home sales. Certainly by the time we get through the Summer, I would expect to see at least a modest increase (say at the rate of 5% per year).

Whatever happens now, this has got to be the best possible news for the real estate market in the San Ramon Valley.

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Restaurant Review - Fobes Mill Steakhouse, 200 Sycamore Valley Rd W., Danville, CA 94526

Jan. 5, 2008

Categorized in: Restaurant Reviews

Tagged with: danville, restaurant review

I have to admit that when Forbes Mill opened its doors in Danville last year, I wondered if it would be a success. Certainly this Los Gatos based restaurant is extremely successful in its original South Bay location but people who live in Danville, although not short of a dollar or two, expect good value for money regardless of price. And The Price is the first thing that strikes you when you look at the Forbes Mill menu.

Situated in the Danville Livery, in premises formerly occupied by Tony Roma’s, Forbes Mill has a high profile location right next door to Piatti and with lots of parking spaces. The transformation from Tony Roma’s took a considerable length of time and although the outside looks the same apart from signage, the inside was stripped back to the studs and it shows.

On entering, the main restaurant area is to the left, with a large, very traditional style bar area to the right. The bar is very popular with the after-work crowd most nights of the week and is a pleasant place for a pre-dinner drink while waiting for your table in the restaurant.

My wife Sylvia and I visited Forbes Mill on a Friday evening, early in December. I took the precaution of making a reservation, although I doubted the necessity, but it was just as well that I did. Without a reservation we would not have had a table that evening.

The menu is fairly typical steakhouse fare apart from the fact that in addition to what is already high quality Angus beef, they have Kobe beef on their menu. I have heard that people travel a long way to the Los Gatos location for this but I have to report that we passed at these prices.

For a starter, we shared a portion of Dungeness crab cakes, a dish that often disappoints, unfortunately. But not on this occasion I am pleased to say. They were not the best crab cakes I have tasted but they were still very tasty and I would have them again.

For main courses, Sylvia had the prime rib (ordered medium) and I had the Ribeye Steak (medium rare) with a demi-glace sauce. We also had some creamed spinach (my favorite).

Sylvia’s prime rib arrived rare and had to be returned to the kitchen. On being re-presented, it was still rather underdone although she elected to accept it rather than endure a further wait. My Ribeye was nicely cooked but the sauce was less than impressive.

We are not generally super-critical of restaurants, having been in that business ourselves in a former life and being well aware of the challenges of coping with a full restaurant, but at these prices, one tends to expect everything to be on the nail. Our observant waiter picked up on our slight feelings of disappointment and I was impressed, when by way of recompense, he presented us with a dessert sampler without charge. This is a platter with a small portion of a number of their desserts including a crème brulee, cheesecake, choclate torte and gelato. We are not big dessert eaters but we had to agree that this was outstanding.

We accompanied our meal with a bottle of Rombauer Chardonnay from their extensive wine list. Wine aficionados should plenty to interest them on the Forbes Mill wine list with a number of interesting wines rarely found in the East Bay.

So overall, we came away with mixed feelings. We liked the ambience a lot and the service was faultless. The fact that the kitchen had so much of a problem with Sylvia’s steak was amazing, especially considering that this is a steak house. I think we would have been more impressed if the prices had been a little lower.

See them on the web at www.forbesmillsteakhouse.com.

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San Ramon Valley Market Update

Jan. 3, 2008

Categorized in: San Ramon Valley Market Update

Which way is the market going? Have we passed the bottom yet or will prices decline further? These are all questions that I am constantly asked as I talk to people who plan to buy and/or sell a home but are unsure as to when they should be making their move. The answers are hard to find, due in no small part to the media who seem incapable of providing accurate local information. And make no mistake, Real Estate is LOCAL, but an analysis of data from 2007 compiled by the Contra Costa Multiple Listing Service should help to put things into perspective.

Sold $/Sq.Ft. - Detached Homes
(% Change Relative To Dec 2006)
	Dec 2006	Jun 2007	Dec 2007
Walnut Creek	441	456 (3.4%)	445 (0.91%)
Alamo	513	525(2.34%)	518 (0.97%)
Blackhawk	427	441 (3.28%)	435 (1.87%)
Danville	405	436 (7.65%)	431 (6.42%)
San Ramon	373	392 (5.09%)	369 (-1.34%)

By the middle of last year, it was apparent that we were already seeing signs of recovery. Then came all the Bad News about the Sub-Prime Scandal with the resulting foreclosures and short-sales. In reality, this affected a very small percentage of homeowners in our area but the message was out there and negative news resulted in lack of confidence. The result is clear to see in the December figures. Home prices declined although the percentages were very small compared with other parts of the Bay Area. Our part of Contra Costa County benefits from its own micro-economy which is extremely healthy and the figures here demonstrate the resilience of our local real estate market. In fact looking at such small percentage changes in our part of the East Bay, the indication is that we have either passed the bottom of the market or we are very close to it.

Yes, 2007 was a challenging year in Real Estate but the figures here indicate that recovery is in sight, at least in our area. That is not to say that we will experience price increases like we saw in the early 2000s but it does suggest a return to normalcy in 2008 with prices holding steady, then perhaps a return to moderate increases in home values in early 2009.

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