As we come to the end of a year it is always interesting to look back and review the past 12 months.

Well what a year it was for real estate! Already declining market values were hammered further by the sub-prime fall-out and foreclosures were rife in areas where we never expected to see them. Many short sales as well. Even as we move in to 2008 it is hard to predict if home values have bottomed out or if they still have further to go. Regardless, there are some extremely good real estate buys out there. If I were in a position to buy, I would not hesitate. Rates are good and only a fool plans to buy at the bottom of the market as you can only see the bottom after you have passed it.

From a personal perspective, I had a good 2007. I achieved my targets (just) and I plan to move to bigger and better things in 2008. I also decided to make a change of broker and I am now affiliated with J Rockcliff Realtors, a relatively new name in San Ramon Valley real estate although hardly a new company. J Rockcliff was formed when Jeff Sposito, East Bay Regional Vice President of Intero Real Estate Services bought out all of the East Bay offices owned by Intero Real Estate Services, renaming them J Rockcliff Realtors. This was in March of this year and already J Rockcliff is recognized as the premier East Bay real estate broker.

So 2007 is almost over and soon we will enter a new year. I wish all of my readers a wonderful Holiday season and a prosperous and healthy 2008.

County Supervisors in Contra Costa County are considering a proposal on Tuesday to introduce a measure that would give people over the age of 55 a potentially significant tax break when moving into Contra Costa County.

Proposition 90 is already in place in seven California Counties including Alameda, San Mateo and Santa Clara. The way it works is that if you are over 55 and you are moving in to a County that supports Proposition 90, you can keep your existing Property Tax base. There are conditions of course. First of all, you can only do this one time, so you had better be sure you don't plan to move again. Also, the home you are moving to needs to be of equal or lesser value than your present one.

Since one of the frequently cited reasons for people staying in their present home rather than moving is the fact that they can't afford the new property taxes, it seems reasonable to think that this could stimulate the housing market, something that everybody agrees is desirable. Critics say that it will cost the county considerable income in potential lost property tax revenues but of course this is only a reality once a given home has been sold.

The reality, in my opinion, is that such a move s unlikely to be a major stimulus to our market, although undoubtedly, every little helps. On a more positive note, anything that can be done to help people nearing retirement have improved benefits should be considered a positive. It will be interesting to see if this proposal goes anywhere.

In these rather tough times it is good to see that Alain Pinel Realtors, the company with which I am affiliated, won the Structures' Real Estate Firm of The Year award for 2007. Alain Pinel Realtors is based in Silicon Valley and this is an award given by the San Jose Business Journal although it relates to the firm as whole.

It is also good to see that the Danville office of Alain Pinel Realtors (that's my office) was ranked as the #2 office by volume for all sales in Contra Costa County for the 12 months ending August 2007. #1 was Village Associates.

Way to go Alain Pinel!

Bernard G

Can you believe that we are just entering the final quarter of the year? Already the weather is turning cooler and the nights are beginning to draw in. Soon the Holiday Season will be upon us and then another year will be over.

So what of the real estate market for 2007 so far in the San Ramon Valley? Lets ignore the hype and just look at the facts. The chart on the left shows real estate sales activity from June 2006 to August 2007. Actual sales activity was fairly steady for the first half of the year then dropped off somewhat in July and August. This is a normal pattern. Remember that people typically take their vacations in July and August when school is out so real estate activity almost always declines then.

Perhaps of more concern to sellers is the fact that inventory levels have steadily been increasing. To some extent, this is due to increased numbers of foreclosures and distress sales. At the end of August there was 14 months inventory on the market and when one considers that anything above 9 months inventory is considered to be a buyers market, it is apparent that buyers must really be able to call the shots in Contra Costa County right now.

Or can they? Look at the second graph (below right). This shows Alamo, Danville and San Ramon for the same period. There are similarities in patterns and trends but the reality is that there was only 5 months inventory at the end of August and this would be considered a neutral market. Just a glance shows that the market this year is much healthier than it was at the same time last year. Still not where we would like to see it of course. In an ideal, balanced market, there will be around 3 or 4 months of inventory.

The fact is, nice homes that are presented and marketed professionally and priced right are selling. So why all the doom and gloom?
Again I blame the media. You can turn on the television any day you like and hear that the real estate market is in a bad way. There are hundreds if not thousands of foreclosures and short sales and we have not even seen the tip of the iceberg yet. This is all absolute poppycock of course!

ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!

You can't compare the real estate economy in North Dakota with Northern California. You can't even compare real estate in Antioch and Pittsburg with Danville and San Ramon as is well illustrated by the above charts. There is just no relationship!

The reality is that now is a good time to buy a home in our area. Prices are unlikely to fall much lower if at all and trying to pick the bottom (or the top) of any market is a mug's game. Now is particularly a good time if you are trading up as values have declined over the past 2 years and therefore so has the differential.

It's also a good time to be selling provided that your expectations are realistic. There are many overpriced homes on the market which means that a home listed at true market value stands out.

I welcome your comments and questions.