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RSS FeedMarket Update – October 2006 |
Oct. 1, 2006
Categorized in: San Ramon Valley Market Update
Tagged with: alamo, blackhawk, danville, lafayette, market update, real estate, sanramon, walnut creek
Still Trying To Make Sense of Our Local Real Estate Market
Almost 3 months have gone by since I reviewed the state of the market in detail. We are now into Fall when the real estate market is usually quite active, at least up until Thanksgiving.
As stated previously, looking at real estate sales year on year tends to be more meaningful than just looking at a series of monthly activities. The chart below brings our figures up to date in the area’s larger communities with the previous year’s figures shown in parentheses:
Actual Numbers of Sales Agreed 2006 – All Residential Homes
|
City
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
August
|
September
|
|
Danville
|
69 (73)
|
75 (105)
|
55 (82)
|
49 (81)
|
50 (90)
|
55 (70)
|
|
San Ramon
|
82 (87)
|
98 (131)
|
76 (117)
|
100 (87)
|
68 (89)
|
58 (98)
|
|
Lafayette
|
30 (33)
|
45 (36)
|
37 (26)
|
20 (25)
|
18 (25)
|
25 (23)
|
|
Walnut Creek
|
86 (96)
|
91 (126)
|
82 (119)
|
79 (112)
|
87 (114)
|
55 (88)
|
|
Concord
|
159 (208)
|
138 (208)
|
125 (243)
|
124 (195)
|
151 (206)
|
104 (165)
|
|
Total % Change
|
-14.29%
|
-26.24%
|
-36.12%
|
-25.60%
|
-28.63%
|
-33.11%
|
So the numbers are still, in the main, lagging well behind last year although Lafayette and Danville seem to be on the road to recovery. In situations like our present one, the more desirable areas usually recover first, so this has to be considered a very good sign. So on the basis of these figures, it seems unlikely that prices will fall much below their present levels.
Median home sales prices - Single Family Homes - August 2006 vs August 2005
Alamo, Danville, Blackhawk, San Ramon, Walnut Creek
|
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
August
|
September
|
|
$ Sales Price 2006
|
1059K
|
1000K
|
1000K
|
1000K
|
932K
|
968K
|
|
$ Sales Price 2005
|
1099K
|
1000K
|
999K
|
975K
|
1015K
|
1000K
|
|
% Change
|
-3.6%
|
N/A
|
+0.1%
|
+2.6%
|
-8.2%
|
-3.2%
|
I’ve excluded condominiums in this analysis because it is generally accepted that the condominium market has been far more affected by recent changes in the market than single family homes.
As can be seen from the above table, the median sale price has fallen, although not as much as you may have thought based on recent press articles.
August obviously showed the greatest change but if the September figure is a good indicator, we may have seen the worst of this trend and be on the road to recovery. The next 2-3 months should be very interesting.
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