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RSS FeedMarket Update – November 2006 |
Nov. 15, 2006
Categorized in: San Ramon Valley Market Update
Which Way Is The Market Moving?
It’s been a tough year for home sellers as we have experienced a real estate market correction following years of unparalleled increases in home prices. And correction it was, rather than a bubble bursting as was predicted by much of the national press. Hopefully, the worst is past, although we won’t know for sure until we get into 2007.
There are two things that should be uppermost in the minds of people who want to sell their home. First is how quickly they can expect to achieve a sale and secondly, what will be the sale price.
The length of time a home takes to sell, assuming it is marketed correctly, is very much related to the number of homes on the market. There is some good news here at last. Look at the following table:
Numbers of Homes Listed For Sale on Contra Costa MLS (Single Family and Condominiums)
|
START OF
|
YEAR
|
San Ramon
|
Danville
|
Blackhawk
|
Alamo
|
Walnut Creek
|
Lafayette
|
Moraga
|
Orinda
|
TOTAL
|
|
August
|
2006
|
420
|
250
|
54
|
91
|
330
|
94
|
48
|
57
|
1344
|
|
September
|
2006
|
440
|
270
|
57
|
85
|
311
|
96
|
47
|
56
|
1362
|
|
October
|
2006
|
442
|
268
|
59
|
87
|
336
|
88
|
42
|
59
|
1381
|
|
November
|
2006
|
385
|
256
|
60
|
80
|
314
|
90
|
34
|
54
|
1273
|
Since the beginning of November, the total has reduced further to 1,234 at November 10th so this looks like a promising trend.
Now on to price. Let us consider the average sales price of a 4 bedroom single family home from 2,000 to 3,000 square feet, with a 2 car garage.
Average home sales prices - Single Family Homes
San Ramon, Danville, Blackhawk, Alamo, Walnut Creek, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda
|
|
JAN
|
FEB
|
MAR
|
APR
|
MAY
|
JUN
|
JUL
|
AUG
|
SEP
|
OCT
|
NOV
|
|
$,000 Sale Price 2006
|
1,043
|
1,154
|
1,073
|
1,134
|
1,095
|
1,144
|
1,140
|
1,027
|
1,023
|
1,008
|
1,054
|
So as we can see, the average home price fell from a peak of $1,154,000 in February to $1,008,000 in October - a drop of over 12%. November’s figures, shown here in the shaded cells, represent slightly less than one half-month of sales figures but obviously the signs are very encouraging. This is exactly the kind of pattern we expect to see at some point but it is a little early to confidently say that the downward trend has been halted.
So how does it look for home sellers?
With reducing levels of inventory and (hopefully) a market decline that is starting to reverse, it is probably a better time to list your home for sale than any other time over the past few months. If you are moving to a higher priced home then this is a good time to sell and buy. If you are down-sizing, you may want to wait a little longer.
What about buyers?
Well there is still plenty of choice out there but if you believe that the November figure above is a true indicator, then average home sales prices have now bottomed out. If you are in a position to buy and you can find a home that meets your needs, buy now.
