Trying To Make Sense of Our Local Real Estate Market

Having reached the mid-point of the year we can hopefully begin to make some sense of the activities in the real estate market over the past few months and possibly even forecast what is likely to happen as we move into the second half of the year.

Considering real estate sales year on year is much more meaningful than just looking at a series of monthly activities as it makes allowances for seasonal trends. Here then, is a summary of market activity over the past 4 months in the area’s larger communities with the previous year’s figures shown in parentheses:

Actual Numbers of Sales Agreed 2006 – All Residential Homes

Now let’s look at the average sale price of a 4 bed, 2-2½ bath, 1800-2200 sq.ft. single family home with a 2-car garage in June 2006 as compared to a similar home sold in June 2005 (shown here in parentheses). Note that this is just an example though. Different types of home will show different results:

 Price is generally a function of supply and demand and the downward price adjustment seen in most areas in the table on the left is the result. This is most likely the “soft landing” that was predicted by real estate economists.  Will prices fall further? Probably not. This is an adjustment, not a “bubble” bursting. Note that Lafayette appears to have recovered already. Other areas should soon follow.

FootNote:
On examining the closed sales figures for Danville through the month of June, I see that 21% of them sold above listed price and 19% sold at list price. This is surely a sign that things are getting back to normal here.

If you are thinking about selling, you need to have this information as it relates to your type of home so you can price it accordingly. Call me on (925) 997-1585 or send an email to bernard@bernardgibbons.com. I will be happy to provide you with a similar market analysis.