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Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

Danville, California

Observations and information of interest to home buyers and sellers in San Ramon, Danville and surrounding areas in Contra Costa's San Ramon Valley. Real estate market updates, happening's and reviews of local area restaurants.

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Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

January 2006

Where is the East Bay market going?

Jan. 26, 2006

The volume of home sales in the nine-county Bay Area declined significantly on a year-over-year basis in December as prices eased back from their November peak, a real estate information service recently reported.


Does this mean we are entering a slump in real estate prices? Is the bubble about to burst? Probably not say most of the economists. There is really no evidence of a bubble. This is just an idea that has been talked up by the press who seem to only want to report on bad news. Nevertheless, the market is definitely changing.


"Demand still seems to be there, but the sense of urgency seems to be a thing of the past. We don't expect the market to tumble, but we do expect price increases to level off between now and spring" says Marshall Prentice, president of DataQuick, a company that monitors real estate activity nationwide. Certainly there is strong evidence of lack of urgency. At the time of writing, 75 sales have been agreed in the Alamo, Danville, San Ramon area year to date. This compares with 102 for the same period last year. And there were far fewer homes for sale then!


We are experiencing a return to a more balanced market, in line with our expectations, although unsold inventory is still near historical lows, with a 3.6 month supply of homes for sale says C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. Time on the market also is nearly unchanged at 44 days in December compared with 40 days for the same period last year So certainly the market has slowed down. From discussions with buyers and other agents, there is a strong feeling that prices in many, although not all, cases are too high. Quite a few people believe that many homes sold in the second and third quarters of 2005 were sold for more than they were worth so they are reluctant to buy based on these comparables. Many sellers are unwilling to accept that premise so they are offering their homes for sale at prices that are unrealistic. This would certainly explain why fewer sales are being agreed.


February 5th is Superbowl Sunday. This is a day that many believe represents the start of the peak time for home sales in our area. By this time next month, with a few weeks normal real estate activity, we will undoubtedly have very strong indications as to the future of the real estate market in 2006

Broker's Tour Update and Market Review

Jan. 19, 2006

78 homes on Brokers Tour today. There are plenty of homes on the market for buyers to consider. Look at these numbers:

 

Homes Currently Listed For Sale on the MLS

 

San Ramon: 200

Danville: 117

Blackhawk: 38

Alamo: 29

Walnut Creek: 114

 

If I was going to list my home for sale anywhere in this area right now and I really wanted to sell it quickly I would want to be sure that the price was very competitive with everything else on the market. It's all very well to base a sale price on comps over the past 6 months (the only realistic approach in a rising market) but when there is that much competition out there, it is fairly obvious that the most important question a seller has to ask is "Are there other homes on the market at or below the price of my home that look like better value?" If the answer is "Yes", the price is too high.

New Listing in Concord

Jan. 15, 2006

I just listed a really unique property in Concord. I know the word unique is much overused but this really is.

 

It is a true "Country Retreat" on Cowell Road very close to the Walnut Creek border. It's well set back from Cowell Road in fact and has a real cottage feel to it. Basically an older style rancher with 3 beds and 1.5 baths but completely updated and remodeled with new paint inside and out. Slate floors through living areas and bathrooms. Completely new kitchen and baths with granite counters and attractive distressed cabinets. And a full 2-car garage.

 

But saving the best until last, it is on a quarter acre lot. Lots of scope to expand in two directions, or even upwards (subject to appropriate approvals of course). It will be on the MLS on Tuesday at $650,000. Here's a pic:

 

 

Broker's Tour Update

Jan. 12, 2006

73 homes on the Thursday Broker Tour this week. Based on last year's tours, this is typical but it is unusual to find so many this early in the year. There is no shortage of homes for sale here so buyers have plenty of choice.

 

From a sellers perspective, based on feedback from attendance at Open Houses on Sunday, the good news is that there are lots of buyers about. It seems that many are being cautious right now and waiting to see which way the market goes. Indications are that we won't see much panic buying this year so multiple offers are probably a thing of the past. Homes will take longer to sell and they need to be priced right when they are listed for sale. I expect to see prices holding steady for the rest of the year.

Brokers Tour Update

Jan. 6, 2006

The number of homes on the various Brokers Tours is generally a good indication of activity in the housing market. With this in mind I will use this Blog to chronicle the size of the Brokers Tour in my main area of operation - that is San Ramon, Danville, Blackhawk, Diablo, Alamo and Walnut Creek. The tour is run every Thursday.

 

Yesterday's tour had only 32 homes. This would normally be considered very low and indicative of a seller's market approaching but in view of the time of year, this may not be the case. Let's see what next week's tour looks like.