Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

Danville, California

Observations and information of interest to home buyers and sellers in San Ramon, Danville and surrounding areas in Contra Costa's San Ramon Valley. Real estate market updates, happening's and reviews of local area restaurants.

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Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

2006

Market Update – November 2006

Nov. 15, 2006
Which Way Is The Market Moving?
It’s been a tough year for home sellers as we have experienced a real estate market correction following years of unparalleled increases in home prices. And correction it was, rather than a bubble bursting as was predicted by much of the national press. Hopefully, the worst is past, although we won’t know for sure until we get into 2007.
There are two things that should be uppermost in the minds of people who want to sell their home. First is how quickly they can expect to achieve a sale and secondly, what will be the sale price.
The length of time a home takes to sell, assuming it is marketed correctly, is very much related to the number of homes on the market. There is some good news here at last. Look at the following table:
Numbers of Homes Listed For Sale on Contra Costa MLS (Single Family and Condominiums)
START OF
YEAR
San Ramon
Danville
Blackhawk
Alamo
Walnut Creek
Lafayette
Moraga
Orinda
TOTAL
August
2006
420
250
54
91
330
94
48
57
1344
September
2006
440
270
57
85
311
96
47
56
1362
October
2006
442
268
59
87
336
88
42
59
1381
November
2006
385
256
60
80
314
90
34
54
1273
Since the beginning of November, the total has reduced further to 1,234 at November 10th so this looks like a promising trend.
Now on to price. Let us consider the average sales price of a 4 bedroom single family home from 2,000 to 3,000 square feet, with a 2 car garage.
Average home sales prices - Single Family Homes
San Ramon, Danville, Blackhawk, Alamo, Walnut Creek, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda
 
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
$,000 Sale Price 2006
1,043
1,154
1,073
1,134
1,095
1,144
1,140
1,027
1,023
1,008
1,054
So as we can see, the average home price fell from a peak of $1,154,000 in February to $1,008,000 in October - a drop of over 12%. November’s figures, shown here in the shaded cells, represent slightly less than one half-month of sales figures but obviously the signs are very encouraging. This is exactly the kind of pattern we expect to see at some point but it is a little early to confidently say that the downward trend has been halted.
So how does it look for home sellers?
With reducing levels of inventory and (hopefully) a market decline that is starting to reverse, it is probably a better time to list your home for sale than any other time over the past few months. If you are moving to a higher priced home then this is a good time to sell and buy. If you are down-sizing, you may want to wait a little longer.
What about buyers?
Well there is still plenty of choice out there but if you believe that the November figure above is a true indicator, then average home sales prices have now bottomed out. If you are in a position to buy and you can find a home that meets your needs, buy now.

Market Update – October 2006

Oct. 1, 2006
Still Trying To Make Sense of Our Local Real Estate Market
Almost 3 months have gone by since I reviewed the state of the market in detail. We are now into Fall when the real estate market is usually quite active, at least up until Thanksgiving.
As stated previously, looking at real estate sales year on year tends to be more meaningful than just looking at a series of monthly activities. The chart below brings our figures up to date in the area’s larger communities with the previous year’s figures shown in parentheses:
Actual Numbers of Sales Agreed 2006 – All Residential Homes
City
April
May
June
July
August
September
Danville
69 (73)
75 (105)
55 (82)
49 (81)
50 (90)
55 (70)
San Ramon
82 (87)
98 (131)
76 (117)
100 (87)
68 (89)
58 (98)
Lafayette
30 (33)
45 (36)
37 (26)
20 (25)
18 (25)
25 (23)
Walnut Creek
86 (96)
91 (126)
82 (119)
79 (112)
87 (114)
55 (88)
Concord
159 (208)
138 (208)
125 (243)
124 (195)
151 (206)
104 (165)
Total % Change
-14.29%
-26.24%
-36.12%
-25.60%
-28.63%
-33.11%
So the numbers are still, in the main, lagging well behind last year although Lafayette and Danville seem to be on the road to recovery. In situations like our present one, the more desirable areas usually recover first, so this has to be considered a very good sign. So on the basis of these figures, it seems unlikely that prices will fall much below their present levels.
Median home sales prices - Single Family Homes - August 2006 vs August 2005
Alamo, Danville, Blackhawk, San Ramon, Walnut Creek
 
April
May
June
July
August
September
$ Sales Price 2006
1059K
1000K
1000K
1000K
932K
968K
$ Sales Price 2005
1099K
1000K
999K
975K
1015K
1000K
% Change
-3.6%
N/A
+0.1%
+2.6%
-8.2%
-3.2%
I’ve excluded condominiums in this analysis because it is generally accepted that the condominium market has been far more affected by recent changes in the market than single family homes.
As can be seen from the above table, the median sale price has fallen, although not as much as you may have thought based on recent press articles.
August obviously showed the greatest change but if the September figure is a good indicator, we may have seen the worst of this trend and be on the road to recovery. The next 2-3 months should be very interesting.

Tougher rules for real estate agents become law

Sep. 24, 2006
Categorized in: General Observations
It is good to see The Industry supporting an additional level of professionalism. (not that tough or tough enough, but the right idea)
 
Tougher rules for real estate agents become law
Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal - 2:50 PM PDT Friday
Future real estate agents will need more classroom education before they can pursue a license under a bill signed into law Friday by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The governor signed AB 2429, which requires prospective agents to complete all three Department of Real Estate-mandated courses before they can take the license examination. The measure, which is supported by the real estate industry, takes effect October 2007.
Under the old rules, a real estate agent had to complete a Real Estate Principles class at a community college or career college and then pass the state's real estate exam, a process that can take as little as a few months. The agent then would receive a conditional license and was required to take two additional classes within 18 months to retain it.
"There has been quite an influx of new agents into the marketplace over the past several years which has eroded the quality of service, the level of services and the professionalism in the industry," said Alex Creel, chief lobbyist for California Association of Realtors, which sponsored the legislation.
"AB 2429 will increase the foundational knowledge of sales licensees entering the profession and prevent ill-equipped licensees from engaging in licensed activity," said CAR president Vince Malta in a prepared statement.

2517 Aranda Drive, San Ramon - $969,500

Sep. 19, 2006
Categorized in: Listings

Here is a brief description of a beautifully remodeled home I just listed in San Ramon. You can see full details and a Virtual Tour if you click on the link below

 


 

 

The Very Best of Twin Creeks South

2517 Aranda Drive, San Ramon

Rarely does a home such as this come on to the market for less than $1 million. Completely updated and tastefully remodeled over the past few years, this is undoubtedly one of the nicest homes in Twin Creeks, in one of the neighborhood's most desirable locations. 2517 Aranda Drive offers a tremendous opportunity for a discerning buyer to enjoy all the benefits of living in one of the best parts of San Ramon with its award winning schools and easy access to shops, restaurants, freeways and Bishop Ranch office park.

The present owners have improved this home beyond all recognition. Every room has been updated and every piece of interior trim has been replaced together with all of the doors, windows, electrical switches and receptacles, floor coverings and much more.

Offered For Sale at $969,500

Click Here To See Full Details

Click Here For A Virtual Tour


Market Review – August 2006

Aug. 1, 2006
Market Review – August 2006
How is the market doing? Is it a good time to buy? Is it a good time to sell? I can’t tell you how often I have been asked these questions in recent weeks. I know that many of you want to move but you are understandably cautious given the shift in the market from this time last year, so let’s try to answer some of these questions.
Is It A Good Time To Buy?
There are more homes for sale here than usual. So if you are in a position to buy, there should be lots of choice. This large inventory also means that sellers are often prepared to accept an offer below list price. This is particularly true for older homes that are in need of updating.
Prices are presently very stable. Certainly they have fallen from a year ago but they now appear to have leveled out. The Bay Area economy is one of the strongest in California. Employment is high and more jobs are being created every month. The housing market is strong.
Based on the above, I think this is a great time to buy. Everybody wants to sell at the top of the market and buy at the bottom. For buyers, this is probably as good as it will get.
Is It A Good Time To Sell?
There is a misconception that all homes are taking a long time to sell. The fact is that desirable homes, accurately priced, are selling within a few weeks. This is what happens in a normal market. I have also seen numerous cases recently where homes have sold above list price. So if you have a nicely upgraded or remodeled home in a good area, list it for sale with confidence. Provided that you don’t have unreasonable expectations, it will sell. But what if you don’t have such a nice home? Well this is when you really need to be realistic if you want to achieve a sale in a reasonable time frame. First of all you need to make it as appealing as possible to a potential buyer. If you are working with me, I will tell you exactly what you need to do but getting rid of all the clutter and making sure that the paintwork and carpeting is up to scratch is a good start. Then you must price it aggressively. A year ago, it seems that people would pay whatever you wanted regardless of condition. Those days are gone for a long time. Every home will sell reasonably quickly at the right price.
The potential sellers with the bigger problem are those who live in an area where there are lots of homes already for sale. San Ramon’s Windemere immediately comes to mind. There are homes in Windemere that have been on the market for months. Yet similar homes come on to the market and sell quickly. You can sell your home quickly in this situation but you have to be realistic. You need to listen to your agent regarding pricing. Over-pricing is the kiss of death. You absolutely must price it below similar homes to have a chance of selling quickly. Upgrades will speed the sale rather than add value in such cases.
So How Is The Real Estate Market Doing?
Overall, things are a little slow at present but there are good opportunities for buyers, desirable homes are still selling quickly and interest rates are still low. All these are good signs. Look for a strong recovery in the next few months.
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