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Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

Danville, California

Observations and information of interest to home buyers and sellers in San Ramon, Danville and surrounding areas in Contra Costa's San Ramon Valley. Real estate market updates, happening's and reviews of local area restaurants.

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Bernards San Ramon Valley Real Estate Blog

The Market Is Moving in The San Ramon Valley!

May. 7, 2009

Have you been waiting for the bottom of the market to be passed before committing to a home purchase? If so, it looks like now is the time to make your move. Certainly that is the case if your target area is San Ramon or Danville. Take a look at the graphs below.

 

Both of the graphs relate to real estate activity over the past year in Danville and San Ramon. The upper graph is the strongest indicator of what is happening in the market as it tabulates all sales agreed of single family homes and condominiums on a month by month basis over the past 2 years. Certainly, there was an effort at recovery in the beginning of 2008 but it was half-hearted at best and the real estate market continued to decline.
 
This year we see quite a different picture. Not only has there been a solid four month pattern of rapidly increasing sales contracts but also, as can be seen from the lower graph, inventory has declined at an amazing rate. There are just insufficient numbers of homes being listed for sale to meet the present demand.
 
As we enter May, there is just a 2.5 month supply of homes available. In any situation, this is what would describe a strong sellers’ market.
 
The question on everybody’s lips is “Will this recovery continue?”. Economic news suggests that it will.
Last week, the Fed signaled that the recession may be easing, and this news was echoed by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who also said that the recession would probably end by the time Summer is over. The ECRI, whose leading indicators have a solid track record of predicting turns in the business cycle, said that enough of its key gauges have turned upward to indicate with certainty that a recovery is coming.
 
Stocks in general also had a great April. In fact, the S&P 500 had its best month in nine years, gaining 9.4%, led by the financial sector.
 
In addition, there were several good economic reports to note as Consumer Confidence for April came in at its fourth largest gain in the history of the survey, while Consumer Sentiment also came in better than expected. The improvement in the way consumers are feeling is likely influenced by the improvement in Stock prices. And people are buying homes.
 
So how does this affect you and what action should you be taking now?
 
Well if you are a potential buyer, these are good times. Interest rates are at historic lows and homes are more affordable than they have been in years, although unless we see more homes coming on to the market, prices are likely to start moving up so any delay in action could cost you money.
 
If you are a seller, the good news is that there are lots of buyers about at last. And as most sellers are also buyers, the news is good for you as well. Get your home on the market now and get ready to move forward with your plans.
 
The above analysis is specific to Danville and San Ramon. If you would like to see the graphs for other areas, give me a call on (925) 997-1585 or email bernard@bernardgibbons.com and I will be happy to get them to you.  
 
 

A Video Tour of Danville, California

Apr. 3, 2009
Categorized in: Area Information

This is a short video I have just produced to show off some of the sights and homes of Danville, California, the nicest town in the San Francisco East Bay:


 

Could The Market Be Changing For The Better In The San Francisco East Bay?

Apr. 3, 2009

I just carried out an analysis of real estate activity in San Ramon (using Clarus Market Metrics of course - what a great tool!). I was just considering detached single family homes. The results were encouraging to say the least.

We have seen an increase in median sales price for 3 straight months now. And in numbers of sales agreed for 4 straight months. These are not just small increases and this is despite the fact that we are seeing increasing numbers of home for sale. The inventory is being taken up faster than new homes are listed.

At the end of March there was only 3.3 months supply of inventory in this market segment. We would normally say this is a sellers market. Obviously buyers are coming off the fence. The next few months will be interesting to watch. 

The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan

Feb. 18, 2009
Categorized in: General Observations

President Obama today unveiled the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, which is expected tp provide assistance to as many as 9 million homeowners, with a focus on significantly reducing the volume of foreclosures that is dragging down real estate values virtualy everywhere.

Their are three main parts to the Plan, and it only applies to primary residences. Also note that the loans that are referred to cannot exceed Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae conforming loan limits. This could be a problem in many parts of California, in particular. 

The first part of the Plan addresses homeowners who still have equity in their homes, but because of reduced values, don't have sufficient equity (20 percent) needed to refinance.  Under the new proposals, homeowners who have conforming loans owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be allowed to refinance their homes, even if they do not have 20 percent equity left in the house. The U.S. Treasury Dept. estimates that this may help up to 5 million homeowners.

The second part of the Plan targets homeowners who are “upside down” on their mortgages, including those who are current with their mortgages. At a cost of $75 billion, their mortgages will be reduced to monthly payments that do not exceed a 38 percent debt-to-income ratio, with the costs of doing so borne by the lender. The government and lender then would split the costs of further reducing the monthly payments until they were at a 31 percent debt-to income ratio. It is unclear how this will be enforced or if it will be voluntary on the part of lenders/servicers but they will receive up to $1,500 for every eligible modification meeting the initiative’s guidelines that are yet to be published, but scheduled to be released by March 4. The Administration will also work with federal agencies and banking regulators to develop loan modification guidelines that can be implemented across the entire mortgage market. All financial institutions receiving Financial Stability Plan assistance will be required to implement these guidelines. The government estimates that this will benefit up to 4 million homeowners.

The final part of the Plan is designed to support low mortgage rates by the Treasury doubling its investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $200 billion in each. It will also continue to purchase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities with the aim of promoting stability and liquidity in the marketplace.  The Obama Administration will also work closely with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to support state housing finance agencies, such as CalHFA

Most of these provisions should be able to be implemented fairly quickly although there are still many details to be clarified and questions that will be asked and answered. Regardless of that, this is obviously a major step in the right direction towards stemming the rising tide of foreclosures across the nation.
 

San Ramon Valley Real Estate - Should You Buy, Sell Or Hold?

Feb. 6, 2009

 Gloom, doom and despondency, are all you seem to hear about on TV and radio or read about in the press regarding the real estate market. Yet is all the news really so bad? Sure, the economy is in a bad way but at least the powers that be seem to recognize that fact and they are working to correct it. As far as the real estate market goes, we always have to remember that real estate is local and what is happening to the market in Cleveland is probably very different from what is happening to the market in Danville or San Ramon.

I thought it would be interesting to compare some statistics about our local market in the boom year of 2005 compared with today. As the common belief is that, even here, the market has tanked, I was really not prepared for what I found.
It’s Not As Bad As I Thought!
In order to get as representative a picture as possible, I looked at sales of all types of homes in Alamo, Danville and San Ramon in January 2005 compared to January 2009. The results are shown below.
 
  No. of Sales Median Sales Price Median Days on Market
January 08 96   $777,000 8
January 09 46   $720,000 70
 
Transaction volume is down by almost 50% which will probably surprise nobody. People are very hesitant to sell their homes when they are losing value and this change would be even more dramatic if it wasn’t for the considerable number of bank owned foreclosures and short sales, but look at the other two columns. The median sale price has fallen by just over 7% in 4 years. I would wager that many people, if asked for an opinion, would tell you that they thought home prices had fallen by that much last year alone!
What is also interesting is the time on the market. 8 days on market in 2005 is indicative of a wild sellers market and we all know what happened to prices shortly after that. 70 days on market is more than we are accustomed to seeing in our area but this is not anywhere near some of the figures we see in other parts of the country.
What Happens Next?
That’s the $64,000 question of course. Will this year be better than last year or will it be worse? Personally, I am encouraged by the fact that the new Administration appear to be focused on fixing the economy and hopefully they realize that housing is what drives the economy in the USA. Fix housing first and everything else will fall into place.
A Good Time To Buy?
Do you need a larger home than your present one? If so, now could be a great time for you to buy. Get your own home sold first of course, because then you know exactly how much you can afford to spend on your next one. I know you won’t get anything like the price you may have got a few years ago but those days are gone. The good news is that the home you will be buying will cost you a lot less than it would have a few years ago. Focus on the difference. You are really benefitting from the current market. And don’t discount today’s great interest rates and the fact that your property taxes will be less.
Are You Down-Sizing?
If you are moving to a smaller home or moving out of the area, it could also make sense for you to move now. You probably have a reasonable amount of equity in your home and you want to get on with your life. If you delay your move, there is a real possibility that your home could be worth less in a few months time. At best, it will keep its current value for a year or two. Home values are not very likely to increase significantly any time soon.
Good News For First-Time Home Buyers
Now more than ever, more first-time buyers can legitimately qualify to buy a home than for many years. Condominiums can be found under $200,000 in the San Ramon Valley and even detached single family homes are available at reasonable prices. The availability of FHA financing means that you can buy a home with 3.5% down and a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. And interest rates are still low. Also note that the government will give you a $7,500 tax credit if you are a first-time buyer and although this is effectively an interest free loan, repayable over 15 years, there is talk of making this non-reclaimable. There will be more information on this available shortly so send me an email if you want the latest updates on this. Some restrictions apply.
The Broader Picture
In the past, people often moved because they wanted to, rather than because they needed to. I am pretty sure that those days are over. People are realizing that Bigger does not necessarily mean Better any more. A smaller home can meet many of our needs and we should choose the right-sized home rather than the biggest we can buy. Times are changing and I would never advise anybody to over-stretch themselves but if the time is right for you, you will find a greater selection of homes for sale at affordable prices than at any time in the last 10 years.
 
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