Feb. 6, 2009
Gloom, doom and despondency, are all you seem to hear about on TV and radio or read about in the press regarding the real estate market. Yet is all the news really so bad? Sure, the economy is in a bad way but at least the powers that be seem to recognize that fact and they are working to correct it. As far as the real estate market goes, we always have to remember that real estate is local and what is happening to the market in Cleveland is probably very different from what is happening to the market in Danville or San Ramon.
I thought it would be interesting to compare some statistics about our local market in the boom year of 2005 compared with today. As the common belief is that, even here, the market has tanked, I was really not prepared for what I found.
It’s Not As Bad As I Thought!
In order to get as representative a picture as possible, I looked at sales of all types of homes in Alamo, Danville and San Ramon in January 2005 compared to January 2009. The results are shown below.
| |
No. of Sales |
Median Sales Price |
Median Days on Market |
| January 08 |
96 |
$777,000 |
8 |
| January 09 |
46 |
$720,000 |
70 |
Transaction volume is down by almost 50% which will probably surprise nobody. People are very hesitant to sell their homes when they are losing value and this change would be even more dramatic if it wasn’t for the considerable number of bank owned foreclosures and short sales, but look at the other two columns. The median sale price has fallen by just over 7% in 4 years. I would wager that many people, if asked for an opinion, would tell you that they thought home prices had fallen by that much last year alone!
What is also interesting is the time on the market. 8 days on market in 2005 is indicative of a wild sellers market and we all know what happened to prices shortly after that. 70 days on market is more than we are accustomed to seeing in our area but this is not anywhere near some of the figures we see in other parts of the country.
What Happens Next?
That’s the $64,000 question of course. Will this year be better than last year or will it be worse? Personally, I am encouraged by the fact that the new Administration appear to be focused on fixing the economy and hopefully they realize that housing is what drives the economy in the USA. Fix housing first and everything else will fall into place.
A Good Time To Buy?
Do you need a larger home than your present one? If so, now could be a great time for you to buy. Get your own home sold first of course, because then you know exactly how much you can afford to spend on your next one. I know you won’t get anything like the price you may have got a few years ago but those days are gone. The good news is that the home you will be buying will cost you a lot less than it would have a few years ago. Focus on the difference. You are really benefitting from the current market. And don’t discount today’s great interest rates and the fact that your property taxes will be less.
Are You Down-Sizing?
If you are moving to a smaller home or moving out of the area, it could also make sense for you to move now. You probably have a reasonable amount of equity in your home and you want to get on with your life. If you delay your move, there is a real possibility that your home could be worth less in a few months time. At best, it will keep its current value for a year or two. Home values are not very likely to increase significantly any time soon.
Good News For First-Time Home Buyers
Now more than ever, more first-time buyers can legitimately qualify to buy a home than for many years. Condominiums can be found under $200,000 in the San Ramon Valley and even detached single family homes are available at reasonable prices. The availability of FHA financing means that you can buy a home with 3.5% down and a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. And interest rates are still low. Also note that the government will give you a $7,500 tax credit if you are a first-time buyer and although this is effectively an interest free loan, repayable over 15 years, there is talk of making this non-reclaimable. There will be more information on this available shortly so send me an email if you want the latest updates on this. Some restrictions apply.
The Broader Picture
In the past, people often moved because they wanted to, rather than because they needed to. I am pretty sure that those days are over. People are realizing that Bigger does not necessarily mean Better any more. A smaller home can meet many of our needs and we should choose the right-sized home rather than the biggest we can buy. Times are changing and I would never advise anybody to over-stretch themselves but if the time is right for you, you will find a greater selection of homes for sale at affordable prices than at any time in the last 10 years.