The Perfect Storm

A Seasoned Real Estate Veteran Gauges the Market and Offers Advice

Written by: James Crumbaugh
Date: Jan 18, 2008 1:25:00 AM

The Perfect Storm!   What could I possibly mean when I say that the Real Estate industry is about to enter the perfect storm?

After 35 + years in the real estate industry, I’ve watched good markets come and go and bad markets come and go. There are always mitigating factors that cause these markets, both good and bad, to make an abrupt change. 

Those who have spent a couple of decades in the real estate industry will tell you this:  When a market changes from bad to good or good to bad it almost always happens very quickly, particularly when a market goes from good to bad. I think everyone reading this article will agree - that is what happened this time as well, when the real estate market went south on us.

So what do I mean when I say that the real estate industry is about to enter the perfect storm?  Let’s look at several factors. The first factor is that a new national election is about to take place with a change of leadership.Markets tend to pause when we are in this faze, waiting to sense what the change will mean. 

Next, with the possibility of a recession facing the United States, with several states already experiencing a recession, the stock market is going to continue to retreat.  When the stock market starts to retreat as it is now, investors almost always start to look at real estate, because it’s a tangible item – it’s concrete, something they can fully grasp.

Then, you have to take a look at where the real estate industry is at this moment.  With the exception of Texas, most states face a severe Real Estate issues, with declining prices and a huge over-supply of inventory. 

Still, we also have some of the most attractive mortgage interest rates available in quite a while, and contrary to popular belief, there is still plenty of mortgage money available for the qualified borrower. 

Let’s  take all these issues’s and throw them into a paper bag, give that paper bag a good shaking and then dump it out.  What do you have?

It is The Perfect Storm for the real estate market.  Real estate prices are at a very attractive level.  In fact in some areas, due to an over-correction, the properties are undervalued.  Mortgage interest rates are very low and very attractive and we have a huge over-supply of resale inventory.  You add all of this together, and for the real estate investor and the natural real estate buyers, the ones who what to move up or move down or move to a new area or whatever the reason is, you have one of the very best times in years to buy property.

The year 2008 is going to go down in the history books as the year that the current real estate market makes a U-turn and starts to stabilize and appreciate again.  Everyone keeps saying now is the time to buy. Let me tell you, it’s not only the time to buy, it’s one the very best times to buy we will see for years to come.    

Comments

RE: The Perfect Storm

Comment by: Dennis Jonas

- Jan 19, 2008 5:14:47 AM
I like the concept of the Perfect Storm. People look at me strange when I tell them it's a great time to sell, and a great time to buy. Since 1976 I have watch the real estate market ebb and flow, with the current prices and interest rates, there is no reason that the consumer is not out in the market. The difference between today's market and the market of three years ago is you need good credit. Well during 98% of my career, good credit was required to buy a home. I'm getting on a boat to enjoy the perfect storm.

RE: The Perfect Storm

Comment by: Nancy at the Shore

- Jan 19, 2008 9:25:12 AM
It is the best time in a long time to be a buyer.Plenty of inventory,rates that are still very attractive.Sellers that finally understand they need to negotiate sale price.This is the time when a buyer can make a phenomenal deal!

RE: The Perfect Storm

Comment by: Bill Calhoon

- Jan 20, 2008 11:49:35 AM
We are in a Perfect storm. The only question is when will it start to get better. It is my belief that when inventories turn over in a six month time period, we will be on the way to recovery.

RE: The Perfect Storm

Comment by: Sylvia Werling

- Jan 21, 2008 3:23:01 AM
The perfect storm is well written. Knowing this is a great time, as an agent, I just purchased property at a great price. I'm working with a mortgage broker to get more money to purchase more real estate. Interest rates are unbelieveably low, money available, unemployment low, stocks are changing. Isn't life is about change? And change is constant. For the love of real estate, I choose to lead by example...ride the storm 2008!

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