"Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS." I hand calculate all of my stats, I compile them and I publish them. I note the source as NWMLS, as that is the system I use to get the raw data.
Nov. 29, 2009 - Home Prices Northshore School Distict King County
Northshore School District in King County is fairly comparable to the Lake Washington School District as to availability of good homes priced at $500,000 or less. The primary difference will be the ability to sell them for much more than what you paid as you get over the $500,000 mark.
Much of Northshore School District is in Snohomish County, but since I'm breaking down home sales for King County, I've cut off the homes at The County Line. If your price range is $400,000 or less, then you should not cut at the County Line. But if your price range is over $600,000, I'd say try to stay on the King County side in Northshore or Lake Washington or even Bellevue School District.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Nov. 29, 2009 - Home Prices Lake Washington School District
Lake Washington School District is an excellent choice if you are looking for a home between $400,000 and $700,000. While I don't have a particularly great reason for the bias, I'd have to say I have a bias for Lake Washington School District vs. Northshore or Bellevue, when it comes to a family buying a home they plan to live in for many years. My mind changes when the purchase price is $450,000 or less, and shifts to Northshore School District in that price range.
For $600,000 give or take, I'd definitely say Lake Washington. For $800,000 give or take, I'd say Bellevue and for $400,000 give or take, I'd say Northshore. Mainly because of the changes in type of home you can get for the money. The trade off of better school to lesser home balances out at those price levels.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Nov. 29, 2009 - Home Prices Bellevue School District
Bellevue School District homes for $300,000 or less are all but nonexistent. Only five sold in all of 2009 year to date.
I'm resuming a study of home prices in King County that I started just before Thanksgiving. A few thousand homes sell in King County for $300,000 or less, but they are not in Bellevue School District. This is one of the best areas to buy a home for $800,000 or more, because at that level in this school district, the value still has room to grow. As you can see, $500,000 give or take is likely the best bet, particularly for an older home. The highest price ranges are reserved for water views and water access, for the most part as the safer bet. Price is not about school district in that upper tier, but the combination of view and school district is a winner.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Without a graph, note that 345 homes sold in Shoreline in 2009.
101 of those sold for $300,000 or less.
106 sold for between $300,000 and $350,000
So pretty much 2/3rds of all homes sold in Shoreline sold for $350,000 or less. with an additional 54 selling between $350,000 and $400,000.
85 sold for over $400,000 with 40 of those sold for over $500,000 and 22 over $600,000
As of today there are 170 homes for sale in Shoreline with 42, about 25%, priced at $300,000 or less. 61 homes are for sale between $300,000 and $400,000.
The median asking price in Shoreline is $372,500 and the median square footage is 1,990. The median SOLD price YTD 2009 is much lower at $330,000 for homes of a median size of 1,790 sf.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
The graph below is North Seattle from 85th Street to 145th. As you can see by comparison to Seattle from Downtown up to 85th Streeet, graph below and previous post the odds are great for finding a home for $300,000 or less when you move north of 85th Street.
If you are planning to buy a house for over $800,000, the odds you will later be able to sell it for at or more than what you paid for it today increase, if you stay below 85th Street to Downtown Seattle.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Back at the end of August, I posted some stats for Seattle Home Sales breaking Seattle into North of Downtown, North of Downtown to 85th and South of Downtown.
By far, even when considering areas on the Eastside, the area from Downtown to 85th was the highest performer. Around the time I was born in 1954,Seattle expanded past 85th Street. I am not stretching that far back in time. I simply note that many people list "up to 85th" as their desired area when looking for a home to buy.
As you will see, depending on how much they can afford to buy, that may or may not be a reasonable request. While 23% of all homes for sale in King County are priced at $300,000 or less, only 20 of those homes exist between Seattle Downtown to 85th Street.
Only 105 of the over 4,000 homes sold YTD in King County under $300,000, were located between Seattle Downtown and 85th Street.
Remember, in Seattle, townhomes are single family homes (vs. Eastside). So if you are looking for a home with a yard with at least 3 bedrooms on one level, this is not the area to be looking in. The larger majority of homes sold are in the $400,000 to $600,000 range.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Single Family Homes For Sale in King County WA are represented in the graph below in the royal blue bar. The lighter blue bar represents homes sold YTD.
County-wide, 29% of homes sold for $300,000 or less, and 92% sold for $800,000 or less. I mention this because the new tax credit for 2009 - 2010 limits the purchase price to not more than $800,000.
On a County-wide basis that accounts for a huge % of people buying homes. BUT even though less than 8% of all home sales were for $800,000 or more, almost 20% of the homes for sale in King County have asking prices of more than $800,000. For the people trying to sell those homes, especially those trying to sell for a tad over the $800,000 cutoff...things may have gotten just a little bit harder.
In the graph below, I have just rearranged the numbers a bit to show that more than half of all homes sold in King County as a whole, sold for $400,000 or less.
Still, not many people, if any, are looking to buy or sell a home based on full County data results. So in subsequent posts I will break down the market areas to add meaningful detail to the stats.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Oct. 13, 2009 - Lake Washington School District Home Prices
Prices will likely continue to fall in the Lake Washington School District, given the 1st Quarter 2009 pricing did not decrease as it did in most of King County. In a previous post I noted that Bellevue School District medain home price per square foot dropped 31% from peak to current "bottom". Lake Washington School District is running the King County Average of 22% from peak to bottom, with 3rd quarter 2009 running higher than 2nd quarter 2005.
The potential is for the median price to drop below $200 a square foot and at minimum a few dollars less than $211.
The surprising number here is 4th Quarter 2007. Amazing that many found so many bargains at that time. For most of King County, prices did not dip in that fashion while the news was still getting out about the lending woes and subprime crisis.
The volume pattern does not follow the norm either, and I suspect that Lake Washington likely lost some momentum to Northshore School District. Will know better when I compile the Northshore stats.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Oct. 12, 2009 - Bellevue School District Home Prices
Somewhat like North Seattle, short sales and bank-owned property sales in the Bellevue School District are actually pulling the prices up vs. down. But for a different reason. The predominance of higher end homes in this district are causing the distressed properties to fall disproportionately toward the most or more expensive homes.
The median asking price of homes for sale in Bellevue School District is $899,000, but the median sold price is $563,500 for 3rd quarter 2009. Let's look at the median price per square foot of the homes sold.
Now let's see how sales volume contributed...or not...to price changes. My observation here is that Bellevue School District has dropped in price by 31% from top to "bottom"...much more than King County as a whole, due the the fact that many homes for sale are not affordable by the buying population at this point.
The stock market woes of early 2009 likely had more to do with these volume changes than the $8,000 homebuyer credit. So I don't expect the expiration of that credit to dramatically impact home sales and home prices in Bellevue School District. Just the normal 4th quarter cyclical change.
(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
In the previous post we looked at the volume of homes sold in Seattle North of Downtown. Here we look at median price per square foot. At the end of the 3rd quarter we are closer to 1st quarter 2006 than 2nd quarter 2006 as to price, but up about 6.4% from $233 in the 1st quarter of 2009. Even in up years, 4th quarter pricing tends to fall from 3rd quarter to 4th due to cyclical factors. With the $8,000 homebuyer credit expiring (unless it is extended) we would expect to see a significant change downward by 1st quarter of 2010.
Question is, will it fall below the $233 of the first quarter? In Seattle SOUTH of Downtown, I think that's a given. But North of Downtown, not necessarily so.
Below I speculate in the green and yellow lines where we might have been without the housing credit, much like I did in the previous post as to volume. The green line here is where prices might be without the stock market woes or the homebuyer credit., so I added a yellow line that balances the net effect of both. The yellow line suggests the market would have been flat in North Seattle at $252 to $253 per square foot in 2009 without undue influence.
Given prices are at $248, if we don't lose too much in the 1st and 4th quarters, we may see prices holding into 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010 in the $245 to $250 range.
In the above example I support my own previous statements that home prices in the 1st quarter would have been higher, if the market wasn't dragged so low when the homebuyer credit was announced as a "maybe" coming. You may recall that the credit at that point was potentially shifting from a $7,500 15 year interest free loan...to an outright credit of $8,000 with no repayment. Clearly a change worth waiting for and the unprecedented low volume rate of 1st Quarter 2009 proves that out in the previous post.
(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
ARDELL
DellaLoggia
On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle.
Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com
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