"Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS." I hand calculate all of my stats, I compile them and I publish them. I note the source as NWMLS, as that is the system I use to get the raw data.
Oct. 13, 2009 - Lake Washington School District Home Prices
Prices will likely continue to fall in the Lake Washington School District, given the 1st Quarter 2009 pricing did not decrease as it did in most of King County. In a previous post I noted that Bellevue School District medain home price per square foot dropped 31% from peak to current "bottom". Lake Washington School District is running the King County Average of 22% from peak to bottom, with 3rd quarter 2009 running higher than 2nd quarter 2005.
The potential is for the median price to drop below $200 a square foot and at minimum a few dollars less than $211.
The surprising number here is 4th Quarter 2007. Amazing that many found so many bargains at that time. For most of King County, prices did not dip in that fashion while the news was still getting out about the lending woes and subprime crisis.
The volume pattern does not follow the norm either, and I suspect that Lake Washington likely lost some momentum to Northshore School District. Will know better when I compile the Northshore stats.
Oct. 12, 2009 - Bellevue School District Home Prices
Somewhat like North Seattle, short sales and bank-owned property sales in the Bellevue School District are actually pulling the prices up vs. down. But for a different reason. The predominance of higher end homes in this district are causing the distressed properties to fall disproportionately toward the most or more expensive homes.
The median asking price of homes for sale in Bellevue School District is $899,000, but the median sold price is $563,500 for 3rd quarter 2009. Let's look at the median price per square foot of the homes sold.
Now let's see how sales volume contributed...or not...to price changes. My observation here is that Bellevue School District has dropped in price by 31% from top to "bottom"...much more than King County as a whole, due the the fact that many homes for sale are not affordable by the buying population at this point.
The stock market woes of early 2009 likely had more to do with these volume changes than the $8,000 homebuyer credit. So I don't expect the expiration of that credit to dramatically impact home sales and home prices in Bellevue School District. Just the normal 4th quarter cyclical change.
(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
In the previous post we looked at the volume of homes sold in Seattle North of Downtown. Here we look at median price per square foot. At the end of the 3rd quarter we are closer to 1st quarter 2006 than 2nd quarter 2006 as to price, but up about 6.4% from $233 in the 1st quarter of 2009. Even in up years, 4th quarter pricing tends to fall from 3rd quarter to 4th due to cyclical factors. With the $8,000 homebuyer credit expiring (unless it is extended) we would expect to see a significant change downward by 1st quarter of 2010.
Question is, will it fall below the $233 of the first quarter? In Seattle SOUTH of Downtown, I think that's a given. But North of Downtown, not necessarily so.
Below I speculate in the green and yellow lines where we might have been without the housing credit, much like I did in the previous post as to volume. The green line here is where prices might be without the stock market woes or the homebuyer credit., so I added a yellow line that balances the net effect of both. The yellow line suggests the market would have been flat in North Seattle at $252 to $253 per square foot in 2009 without undue influence.
Given prices are at $248, if we don't lose too much in the 1st and 4th quarters, we may see prices holding into 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010 in the $245 to $250 range.
In the above example I support my own previous statements that home prices in the 1st quarter would have been higher, if the market wasn't dragged so low when the homebuyer credit was announced as a "maybe" coming. You may recall that the credit at that point was potentially shifting from a $7,500 15 year interest free loan...to an outright credit of $8,000 with no repayment. Clearly a change worth waiting for and the unprecedented low volume rate of 1st Quarter 2009 proves that out in the previous post.
(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Oct. 11, 2009 - Seattle Real Estate Stats - North Seattle Homes
I've been studying the stats over the last few days, preparing my thoughts regarding What will happen in the Seattle Area when the homebuyer credit expires? This is Part 1 of a series of where will we be when the credit expires based somewhat on where we might have been if there never was an $8,000 Homebuyer Credit.
Volume of homes sold in 3rd quarter 2009 is about the same as 1st quarter 2006 and 2nd quarter 2008. i have also done a lot of price graphs, but starting here with volume graphs.
This first graph tells you what IS as to North Seattle, that being north of Downtown. I use a Map Search feature that draws a line at the Seattle dot on the map, which is placed at Downtown Seattle. The results for North Seattle are significantly different than South as to volume and price changes. For the Eastside I will break it out by School District, which is the most relevant dividing factor for most "suburban" home values and activity.
At the end of last month I took North Seattle into "above and below" 85th, pointing out that the area from downtown to 85th was by far the highest performer. Once I finish North Seattle vs. South Seattle and Eastside by School District, I would like to visit the two segments of North Seattle again.
For now, let's look at some general observations and projections.
In the graph below, I speculate (green) where volume might have been without the $8,000 homebuyer credit. To guesstimate where the market will go when the credit expires, I'm using the 2008 relationship between quarters as a guide, though my final observations will be based both on price and volume...and not volume alone. When I called "bottom" at 1st quarter 2009 earlier this year on or about Feb 10, it was based somewhat on the then projected phenomenon of volume at 470 in the first quarter, which I state as "unprecented" for the most part.
More on that as I post more data in subsequent posts, but you can clearly see how the 1st Quarter of 2009 volume of 470 was drastically impacted by the credit "coming" and not yet "here". It is my best guess that Volume might have been closer to 608 (as shown in the green bar), had the credit not been a factor at all.
(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
As I mentioned in an earlier post, the area of Seattle from Downtown north to 85th is the clear winner of any market segment in Seattle and Eastside single family home markets.
It is the only area where the lower tier is performing to this degree, with current inventory significantly less than the number of homes sold year to date. In all areas north of Downtown, the second tier pricing is also performing better than expected, better than the Eastside, and better than areas south of Downtown.
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Required Disclosure - The data used in this post is not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Hand calculated by ARDELL.
Aug. 30, 2009 - Market Stats - Seattle's Eastside Cities
That Kirkland 98034 is outperforming the other Eastside cities, and Kirkland's 98033 is quite astounding. even though that applies only to the lowest price tier of single family homes. The fact that you get more for your money, most times, ikn 98034 is really paying off in this market where people are looking at being able to stay in their home for a longer period.
Remember you can't compare these numbers to the Seattle Market Stats, because townhomes on the Eastside are not reflected, given they are condos on the Eastside, for the most part. In Seattle the lower price tier includes townhomes, because in Seattle they are by and large considered to be single family homes vs. condos.
Eastside homes are still reflecting a buyers market, and many are taking advantage of short sales and bank owneed properties. Sellers who are pricing at levels that are not reflective of current market conditions, are holding the market back in these prime areas.
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Required Disclosure - The data used in this post is not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Hand calculated by ARDELL.
Green Lake, Fremont, Queen Anne, Capitol Hill, Montlake, Ballard, Phinney Ridge, Broadmoor, Windermere, Laurelhurst, View Ridge, Bryant, U-District, Belltown, Madrona, Madison Park, First Hill, Leschi, Magnolia, Wallingford, Ravenna and parts of Wedgwood.
Earlier this year, Seattle Magazine had a Best Neighborhoods or Top Ten Best Places to Live in Seattle (Area) that had everyone scratching their heads, as their jaws dropped at "Excuse Me? Who said so?". Well, in doing my stats this week the jaw dropper, best by far stats came in for the neighborhoods shown in this first paragraph. As evidenced by the data below, the buyers have spoken.The area from Downtown Seattle up to 85th was the clear winner!
The under $400,000 category of single family homes, including single family attached townhomes, came in with astounding numbers. In no other area or price segment did we see the number of people buying (455) surpass the number of people trying to sell at present (133) to this degree. The second and upper level tiers, while declining as prices increase as expected, still...every category across the board appears to have outperformed all other areas of Seattle and the Eastside.
After I post the other areas separately, I'll wrap up the data to show how much better this area did vs. several other Seattle and Eastside neighborhoods and cities.
(required disclosure - The stats in this post and graph are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service - the are hand calculated by ARDELLd)
King County home sales are all at once both good and dismal, depending on the area and price range. In subsequent posts you will see that some areas are doing much better than expected, and some others are no where near recovery.
This is important to you whether you are a buyer or a seller of a home. If you are a buyer and think the market is improving, but are buying in an area and price range where it is not improving, you run the risk of overpaying for that home. If you are a seller and think the market is down 20%, but are in an area and price range that is only down 15%, you run the risk of underpricing your home.
Looking at the County as a whole does not do much to assist an individual buyer or seller, except to compare their immediate area of interest to the County norm. I will post several specific areas today so that you can see how to apply the general method of evaluating in the immediate area surrounding the home you are choosing to buy or sell.
Overall the market gives the appearance of being somewhat in balance with very little variance between the number of homes that want to be sold (yellow) and the number of homes that have sold YTD. However, that is a false positive due to "shadow inventory", that being the huge number of homes that will come on market if and when the market "gets better". There are many would be sellers sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better time to sell...there are also many would be buyers doing the same. That number differs in various price ranges.
What we do know is that the $8,000 credit is keeping that under $400,000 market at a point where there are more buyers than sellers. But it is doing virtually nothing to help the higher price tiers. In past markets the sellers of those homes would be "buying up". In this market many are renting and before you think that means the rental market is robust as a result...not so. Many are opting to move in with relatives and disappearing from the market altogether.
From a buyer's perspective, there is clearly less competition in the higher price tiers, giving you more leverage. BUT the safer bet as to future decline is in the lower price tier, as we do not expect the lending side of things to become as generous as they were in the last few years...ever.
From a seller's perspective, selling in the lower price tier is not an absolute given, and you will see in subsequent posts that in some areas, being priced under $400,00 is not a ticket to a sure sale.
What we don't know is if the market will change dramatically if the $8,000 credit is not extended and/or expanded beyond the current deadline of closing an escrow on November 30 or earlier. There's a lot of speculation there, but at this point it is anyone's guess what will happen in 2010. Personally I think they will pull the plug and see if the market is still breathing without the credit, before deciding whether or not to bring the credit back in its current or revised form. That is what they should do...what they will do is anyone's guess.
( Required Disclsoure - The stats in this graph and post are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service - they are hand calculated by ARDELLd)
Aug. 27, 2009 - King County Homes selling under $400,000
Fewer homes are selling, but more homes are selling for less than $400,000.
One of the things I found to be very interesting was the relationship of homes that sold for less than $400,000 so far this year, against the total number of homes sold. Comparing that to previous years we can see the HUGE change in that relationship in 2006. The fact that the total number of home sales dropped from 19,783 to 17,631, but the number that sold for less than $400,000 dropped by HALF was ahuge sign that people were buying more home than they could afford.
This is another key factor in the mortgage crisis. How could 14,399 people afford homes for $400,000 or less in 2005, and then all of a sudden only 7,998 were buying in that price range with 10,000 or so paying a lot more? That was the red flag saying..."hey, something's not right here".
In 2001, 82% of people buying single family homes in King County were paying $400,000 or less. The fact that 11,556 people could afford homes for $400,000 or less in 2001 tells us a LOT about future market conditions. Only 4,765 people bought in that range this year, representing half of all homes sold.
I expect to see volume increasing a lot more than I expect to see prices decreasing...from here.
I'm doing a lot of month to month breakdowns as to price and volume that I will post throughout the next day or so.
Required Disclosure: Stats not posted, compiled or verified by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Greenlake and Fremont Home Prices are down 20% to 25% under peak prices.
Because most of the price results whether you are looking in Greenlake or Fremont, Bellevue or Woodinville, are pretty much the same as to % down, posting them all gets redundant. The mortgage market has created a drop of about 20% under peak pricing, and the mortgage market affects all neighborhoods, cities and towns in the Seattle Area (and elsewhere).
There was a slight variance in single family homes and townhomes in 98103. Single family homes were down 24% and townhomes were down 20%. Not a significant difference and given the variety of home age and style outside of the townhome market, the difference could simply be about "newer" vs. "older". But worth noting.
One of the surprising differences was in volume of sales. The single family home market actually went up in volume this spring season from 137 sales to 140 sales. The townhome market in the same area dropped from 118 sales to 61 sales. Given more affordable homes on regular sized lots, more of those homes sold at the expense of the townhome market.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
ARDELL
DellaLoggia
On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle.
Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com
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