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Here are some more thoughts and info on Austin's September housing stats.
The number of pending sales from one month is typically a good clue to the next month's closed sales. In the chart below, I've moved the pending numbers a month ahead, so the last entries show September's closed sales with September's pendings moved to October. Note that the previous month had considerably fewer closed sales than were pending from the month before. That's because many of the sales fell through, presumably because of unexpected financing problems.
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If the same thing happened in October, with many sales not closing because of financing problems, we could see the fewest monthly closings in a couple of years. If October's sales number turns out to be only slightly lower than September's, we'll be seeing a healthier market.
One thing for sure, Austin has had a healthy market overall, so the problems here are almost entirely due to financing conditions. Many other places have to fight the battle of weak, overpriced markets, as well.
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