December 22, 2006

Mich. population dips for 1st time since '80s

Mike Wilkinson / The Detroit News

For the first time since 1983, census estimates released today reveal Michigan lost population this year as job-seekers sought paychecks across the country.

The population drop, albeit slight, is yet another symptom of the growing problems facing the state, its residents and its leaders. Unemployment in the state is the highest in the country, crime is up in some of its largest communities and falling taxes are causing troubling deficits across the state.

"This is the outcome of what economists and others would call structural change," said Robin Boyle, professor of urban planning at Wayne State University.

Downriver, real estate agent Betty Lemons has seen the carnage first hand. It takes "forever" to sell homes and, when they do, it's often for less than what the owner owes on the house, she said.

"I go out and it reminds me of the '80s," she said.

With good reason: The Census Bureau last estimated population losses in Michigan from 1981-83, when the state lost an estimated 215,000 people.

But in the 1980s, Michigan was one of seven states seeing declines. This time, only New York, Rhode Island and a hurricane-ravaged Louisiana saw declines, according to the Census Bureau.

For Michigan, the perfect storm may still be brewing. The estimate was made as of July 1, before tens of thousands from GM, Ford, Delphi and others across the state accepted buyouts or were laid off. If they choose to leave, the state's population could plummet further.

"I don't know that we've found a low point," said Wayne State demographer Jason Booza.

In years past, the state's loss of workers was offset by immigrants moving in to take low-wage and high-skilled positions. But those numbers, while still positive, are waning, Booza said.

"That's what kept our head above water," he said.

Now it has slipped below and the effects ripple throughout the state: Retailers have fewer customers and governments get less in taxes.

"There's just that much money that we're not bringing in," he said.

Gov. Jennifer Granholm acknowledged Thursday the woes when she announced a looming $1 billion deficit over the next two years. But her spokeswoman Liz Boyd said the governor has a plan to resuscitate the economy by focusing on education and creating jobs that can't be exported.

"We're going to work that plan," Boyd said. "And it's going to take time."

All told, after factoring in births, deaths and migration, the state lost slightly more than 5,000 people.

The driving force in the state's first population decline is the rapid acceleration of people moving elsewhere. The Census Bureau believes the state lost more than 42,000 people that way -- as if everyone in Bloomfield Township or Lincoln Park pulled up stakes and left the state in the same year.

Even recruiters nationwide have taken notice: Employers across the country are targeting Michigan workers through local advertisements, hoping to lure workers away.

It might not be a hard sell.

Linda and Fred Chesney enjoyed their life in Riverview. Both had grown up in the area and Fred had a good engineering job with a local chemical company while Linda worked as a real estate agent. Their lives included visits to nearby family members and regular trips to a hunting cabin up in Gladwin.

But last summer, Fred, 53, was one of more than a dozen white-collar employees at his company who were laid off. They were forced to put their home on the market -- with a sale price below what they owe. They now live in Houston, where Fred found another engineering job.

So far, Linda said the transition to Houston has been OK. After all, with their three children now out of their house, they were considering a smaller house.

Still, Linda said, "we're not real pleased that someone else made that decision for us."

Eva Schrieber, a native of Austria, has found a good job in automotive sales in Vienna and is returning there soon. But she hopes to sell the two homes she owns in Oakland County.

Three years ago, she had an offer $20,000 above what she wanted for her Bloomfield Township home. Thinking it was a good investment, she declined the offer. Now, she has no takers, and her house is worth well below what she owes on it. She blames it on the layoffs that have taken so many people out of the housing market.

"Today there is no demand," she lamented. "So the price could be zero."

You can reach Mike Wilkinson at (313) 222-2563 or mwilkinson@detnews.com.