After reading The State of the Nation’s Housing 2009 from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, it became clear to me that much of the rest of the country is already seeing some signs of a housing market turn. More importantly, it made me fully aware of the fact that many learned people are seeing reasons why it should and will be occurring.

But how do you predict the turn of the housing market in Tallahassee? There are so many factors involved that you cannot simply point to any one factor, so I thought I’d summarize why I think I know when the turn will begin.

First of all, the problems that we are seeing in the housing market are bundled with all the other financial problems that are happening at the same time. The financial markets are in a mess, the economy is staggering, and real family wealth has taken a hit all over the country. I know that real estate is local, but sometimes what is happening locally is also happening nearly everywhere else. Knowing this is the key to predicting the turn in the housing market. [click to continue…]