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Blog by Susan Pruden
Cheverly, Maryland

Informal observations about Prince George's County Real Estate and happenings around our local area. I'm Susan Pruden, in Cheverly Maryland and I welcome your comments and participation.

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Graphic Evidence of a Declining Market

Sunday, October 21, 2007
Categorized in: Pricing and Value
Tagged with: charts, market, sales

Last week, I blogged about the direction of our market since 2002. It definitely shows a slowing market, but I thought it would be useful to break 2006 and 2007 into a month-by-month chart.

The following charts were created with pretty simple criteria -- the number of detached homes listed each month and the number of contracts written each month on detached homes. Obviously, this month hasn't been completed yet, but the trend is pretty clear. With only 10 days to go, we're not likely to set any records.

Anyway, here goes. 2006 showed a fairly typical spring market, with a spike in both listings and sales. The summer and fall markets didn't show the usual fall spike, but it wasn't horrible.

2007 has been atypical all year. It started out weak and flat-lined through the spring. It's the first time in years that we just plain didn't have a spring market. Part of the problem was that we had so many overpriced houses on the market. Houses that were priced well and attractively presented still sold for decent prices and in a reasonable amount of time.

However, as you can see, aside from a tiny spike in March, it's been downhill ever since. Look at the number of sales in October of last year and then look at our numbers so far this year. It's not a pretty picture.

Unfortunately, I believe strongly that this market is media-driven. Everytime we hear someone say that housing prices are going to drop further, it's a signal to buyers to wait. Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy!

I have one other set of charts that we'll look at tomorrow.

User Comments

1. RE: Graphic Evidence of a Declining Market

Written by: Anonymous
Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Your point about the market being media driven is correct, but you should also keep in mind that this is a double edged sword.  During the go-go days of a few years ago, every story out there was about how much houses were going for which certainly led a bunch of unsophisticated flippers to get out there and buy into the frenzy (which led to another wave of stories about new price records)

Just because the news out there is now all negative, dont forget how much realtors benefitted from the media hype surrounding the "housing boom" of a few years ago!

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