pricing analysis : Manhattan Loft Guy

Manhattan Loft Guy

Jul. 31, 2008 - lux diversion / Time Warner or 165 Charles as better "investment"?

not much gain for Portman
Braden Keil's Gimme Shelter grab bag in today's NY Post (hat tip to Curbed for pointing it out) mentions two celebrity Manhattan real estate transactions that caught me eye, though neither involves a real loft. The first 'news' is that Natalie Portman is selling her "convertible three bedroom, three bath apartment" (with "2,500 sq ft") at 165 Charles Street on the market for $6.55mm, but what startled me is that she reportedly paid $5.7mm in 2005. Assuming (big assumption) that she gets full ask now, her net-net gain calculation starts at $850k -- before melting away. Her transaction costs on that sale will be (in round numbers and at a minimum) 5% broker commission (they are offering 2.5% to a buyer agent) and transfer fees to NYC and NYS of 1.825%, or nearly $450k. Assuming she paid transfer taxes on her way in in 2005, that's another 1.825% on that $5.7mm purchase, or another $100k.

So, $550k of her $850k 'gain' is eaten up by round number big ticket transaction costs, whether she paid cash or secured a mortgage and assuming she gets 100% of her asking price on the way out. At least she won't have to worry too much about capital gains taxes....

Costas does well
The contrast to Bob Costas experience at the Time Warner Center (reported in the same column) is remarkable. Costas has already closed on his sale of a 61st floor 3-bedroom for $8.5mm. Like Portman, he bought his unit in 2005, but he paid 'only' $4.95mm, so his net-net gain calculation starts at $3.55mm (four times Portman's if she can sell at 100% of ask) and doesn't melt away much. He will be pleased to pay his significant capital gains, I am sure.

representative values?
I have no idea if these two transactions (actually, one transaction and one marketing effort) are representative of values in their respective buildings. But the 3-year-appreciation contrast is stark: less than a 15% gain for the Stars Wars gal if she gets her ask at 165 Charles Street, vs. 70% for the Sports Guy at the Time Warner Center.

Not that you should look at your home as an investment or anything....

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Jun. 26, 2008 - head-scratching over $650/ft and outdoor space

opportunity? we got opportunity
For the first time in months, I am going to comment on another firm's Manhattan loft listing today -- without identifying it in deference to my resolution in end of an era for Manhattan Loft Guy / a new day dawns? from April 9 -- because it seems to me to be a great opportunity for a loft buyer at about $650/ft. The loft is in a building that has always represented value to me; it is duplexed but with a real 2 bedroom 2 bath layout; it has outdoor space that looks pretty usable ("free" under the $650/ft pricing of interior space); and the price has come down about 25% from its original asking price.

issues? we got issues
Of course there are some deficits, which is why The Market has let it hang. Some people just don't like duplexes. Some folks don't like the block this building is on. This unit has a rather large monthly expense ratio (roughly $2.00/ft). Can't tell if it in need of a remodel or upgrading, but it could be 'move-in'.

Whatever ... I have always liked the building. (This is not a fringe neighborhood, I promise.) You simply will not find many (any?) Manhattan lofts at this price-per-foot point, let alone with "free" outdoor space.

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Apr. 7, 2008 - past the point of pain at 32 West 18 Street w new price drop

I have removed the content of this blog post, as it comments about the current listing of another agent. For information about why, check out end of an era for Manhattan Loft Guy / a new day dawns? from April 9.

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Apr. 3, 2008 - ... 3 (more) french hens ... 2 (more) price drops (477 Broome + 28 West 38 St)

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Mar. 19, 2008 - drip drip / price drops at 124 Hudson + 684 Broadway to and from $3.05mm

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Feb. 16, 2008 - price drops at 684 Broadway, 49 Warren, 249 Church

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Dec. 4, 2007 - raise, drop (rinse), repeat / loft pricing theory, explored

what's the point of throwing 2 cents in, or out?
I have been ruminating for weeks about the theories of changing a listing price, ever since I noticed that one very successful downtown agent has a habit of frequent small price changes.

I will identify the Manhattan loft listing below, but here's the pattern on a listing showing a price drop yesterday:

Sept 24 = "initial price"	Price increase	Price drop
Oct 9		$1,000 ("correction")
Oct 16	$1,000 ("correction")
Oct 23		$1,000
Oct 29	$1,000
Nov 19		$1,000
Nov 26	$1,000
Dec 3		$1,000

easier than playing with 135 Hudson
Two weeks ago I blogged predicting next price drop at 135 Hudson Street, implying that there is another $50,000 price drop likely to be needed for that loft to find a buyer.

As I have suggested before the conversations about price adjustments between agent and seller can be very difficult. Each situation depends on the specific facts, of course (how many people have visited, any bids, etc), but everything becomes more clear as retrospect gets longer and longer. The slow death of small increments is a painful process, which can be hard to recognize in the emotion of selling -- until it is too late.

I talked about "death by small increments" on September 26 last year (puzzling price policy / slow death near Union Square)…

But the next price change for the "$1,000 yoyo" is much easier to predict than for 135 Hudson Street #6F. Dollars to donuts, the price will rise by exactly $1,000 next Monday, or the Monday after that.

motivating buyers, but in what direction?
When I talked about death-by-small-increments (above) I was thinking about the seller (and agent) being motivated to drop the price meaningfully motivate buyers to think now is the right price, while running the foot-shooting risk that buyers will instead conclude if I just wait, the seller will drop again (and again).

Insofar as it went, I still think my analysis is correct - that anyone interested in #6F at 135 Hudson Street may well think that the seller will drop another $50,000 off the price if they don't sell in a couple of weeks. Instead of (now) waiting, that same buyer might have bid earlier (and higher) if the first price drop had been $150,000.

(Of course this is hypothetical, but my experience tells me I am right; one of the nice things about having a blog is you get to make your own assumptions. Heh-heh)

not motivating, but attracting
I hope we can all agree that it does not matter what the initial price of the "$1,000 yoyo" is for purposes of these discussions. $1k is a per se trivial price change, one that is not going to change anyone's motivation to buy whether the change is an increase or decrease.

(In fact, the "$1,000 yoyo" is a terrific exemplar for my analysis because the initial asking price was $8,250,000. $1,000 is per se trivial. The "$1,000 yoyo" is Penthouse AB at 120 West 29 Street, by the way, but the same agent has done the same thing at slightly different levels [at plus-or-minus $4,000, $4,000 and $5,000] at three other listings this week.)

lazy agents might notice?
Changing the price of a listing incrementally increases the chances that it will be noticed by an agent who had not noticed it before, which I thought was a stupid reason for making these serial trivial changes.

But maybe that is not the intent.

With the increasing use of websites like StreetEasy or Trulia by buyers, buyers who pay attention to listings with price changes are much more likely to notice the listing for Penthouse AB at 129 West 20 Street with the cheap yoyo pattern than they would if the price had stayed at $8.25mm for three months.

I am not saying that the $8mm buyer will be more likely to bid a yoyo, but s/he might. I may have to re-think this specific scenario.

So long as the yoyo works in both directions, there may be enough value in it to justify keeping two sets of marketing materials (are we in a plus $1k week or a minus $1k week??). But if the price dropped $1,000 a week each and every week, week after week, I personally would suggest waiting for that $8.25mm price to come down. In a year or two you might have a deal....

by the way
I think I have to identify the listing to make a credible point here, but I am not suggesting this agent is doing anything wrong, and I generally try not to appear to criticize another agent. It is - to me - an interesting topic. So interesting, in fact, that had I written this post when I first noticed the yoyo pattern, I had not yet realized that this technique may be valid for the StreetEasy crowd; I thought (and continue to think) it is a waste of time for the lazy-agent crowd.

© Sandy Mattingly 2007

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Nov. 14, 2007 - 34 E 30 finally in contract, as in Best & Finally

I hit 34 East 30 Street #PH-9 when it was fresh a month ago in an open house review, then in more extended fashion in a compare-and-contrast review along with a similarly priced (but very different) TriBeCa loft on October 22 (the Tribeca premium, anticipated / a tale of 2 lofts; I just noticed that I owe Tribeca Resident a response to her/his comment there .. coming soon TR).

I did not get into an extended description of this one, but noted that it:

is done (and done beautifully), with so much light there is a window in the dressing room, a very large kitchen with top appliances and features, and 1,000 sq ft of private roof deck. There are several sliding doors of clouded glass doors. This is a classic loft, dressed tastefully for the party.

In fact, it is really beautiful (as I discovered when I saw it), but it comes up in our data base yesterday as In Contract - finally. I say "finally" because it went to a Best & Final bid at the end of that week, on October 26.

Best & Final is a wonderful thing
Susan Greene of BHS reported they had "a lot" of offers, "some" above ask, before going Best & Final. I imagine they accepted an offer by Monday, October 29 and I have had my eye out for the contract being signed there. Perhaps there was an extended negotiation; perhaps they went to an alternative bidder. Almost certainly it went for a nice premium over the asking price.

Meanwhile, the compare-and-contrast partner at 39 Worth Street #3E is still on the market.

© Sandy Mattingly 2007

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Oct. 22, 2007 - the Tribeca premium, anticipated / a tale of 2 lofts

what a difference 40 blocks can make
I visited two lofts Sunday, both asking nearly $2.8mm, both over 2,500 sq ft, both designed with a minimalist sensibility -- but they could hardly be more different.

One has a lot of classic loft character but shows poorly empty, feels a bit beaten up (creaky floors, translucent room dividers that are a bit worn, quirkily narrow kitchen and baths that are nicely minimal but not deluxe) gets (only) reflected light in front and will lose much of its light in back (and all of it on the side). There is an obviously custom paint job (Venetian, waxed?) on the very long wall opposite the entry, kitchen and baths.

The other is done (and done beautifully), with so much light there is a window in the dressing room, a very large kitchen with top appliances and features, and 1,000 sq ft of private roof deck. There are several sliding doors of clouded glass doors. This is a classic loft, dressed tastefully for the party.

Yet these two lofts are offered at essentially the same prices. Because one is in Tribeca (though not prime TriBeCa) and the other is on East 30 Street. Switch the two unit addresses and the one will drop $400k or more in value, while the other would pick up $700k (if it could keep a private roof).

the Tribeca effect, indeed
my basic descriptions are from Sunday's open house reviews:

39 Worth Street #3E
$2.795mm and $2,161/mo for "2,560 sq ft" with a (minor?) celebrity angle ("Designed by internationally-renowned architect Richard Gluckman for the former style editor of The New York Times")
back on the market last week after a 2 month hiatus; for sale for two years (2 different firms; starting at $3.6mm)
[if my FCK editor corrupts the link, search Halstead's website for listing 1129599]

34 East 30 Street #PH-9
$2.775mm and $2,624/mo for "2,800 sq ft" plus "1,000 sq ft" private roof deck with 12 foot ceilings and 4 exposures
new this [past] week

[if my FCK editor corrupts the link, search Corcoran's website for listing 963192]

I don't see any sales at 39 Worth for four years, but even Worth Street gets a Tribeca premium. Problem for the owners of #3E is that they aimed way too high two years ago, and have not yet found the clearing price, some $800k later.

The 8^th floor at 34 East 30 Street is a recent nearby sale (rather nearby!), but in a very different condition. It sold in July for $1.9375mm, off an ask of $1.995mm, but that one needed a lot (neither interior picture is a close-up; the description is "flexible floor plan; create your dream"). If you figure only $200/ft to convert a primitive space (such as the 8^th floor) into a done space (such as the 9^th floor), you are left with 1,000 sq ft of roof space and about $250k off the price of the 8^th floor.

There are many examples of how prices reflect neighborhoods. Because I saw this particular pair in the same hour the difference was especially stark.

© Sandy Mattingly 2007

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Jun. 28, 2007 - how The Market can change / NY Times reported sale at 684 Broadway

The NY Times Residential Sales feature today includes this Manhattan loft sale:

GREENWICH VILLAGE $3.1 million

684 Broadway (Great Jones Street)

3-bedroom, 2-bath, 3,100-sq.-ft. co-op in a renovated prewar loft building; keyed elevator; oversize windows, 11 ½-ft. ceilings; maintenance $1,758, 48% tax deductible; listed at $3.1 million, 49 weeks on market (broker: Corcoran Group)

If I did not know anything more about this loft, I would think it interesting that it was on the market for 49 weeks, yet sold for the asking price of $3.1mm. But I do know more, so this unit’s history suggests how The Market changes.

But first, you loyal readers will recognize that this unit is #3E at 684 Broadway, one of the lofts included in my favorite-post-so-far, my March 15 Jagger’s Law of Imperfect Lofts / life is compromise (sigh), where I said about this unit (comparing it to a preferred-but-not-available #5E in the same building):

Did I mention that nothing is ever perfect? The change in altitude from 5^th floor to 3^rd eliminated the rooftop views, but not so much light; the original pivot windows on 5 were not available on 3 (but were replaced by quiet City Windows); sellers in #3E put in a sauna (who needs -- or wants to pay for -- a sauna?); the bedroom array was not quite as they would have built it in #5E; and there was some (not-very-usable) essentially dead space. But the owners had done a nice renovation, the kitchen was in the right place, their lawyer had already done the due diligence, and the buyers had already made a certain emotional connection with the building and neighborhood.

The 49 weeks “on the market” noted by the Times includes (according to our inter-firm database) five months when the loft was temporarily off the market, but – more interesting – 12 weeks when it was offered for sale at $2.995mm. Twelve weeks in which it did not find a buyer, leading to 5 months off the market.

When it came back to market in January this year, the new-and-improved price was $3.1mm. My buyers in this range (about whom I wrote about Jagger’s Law on March 15, above) hoped that this price history suggested there would be some negotiability from the $3.1mm asking price.

But The Market changed between August and three weeks after the unit was back on the market in January – there were at least three qualified bidders by February, resulting in the buyer signing a full price contract in mid-February.

Kudos to Julia Hoagland at Corcoran for realizing that the same unit that had not sold in the Summer could sell for more in the Winter.

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Apr. 19, 2007 - drip campaigns / token price drops at 80 Warren and 66 Leonard

how does a small price drop change the market?

(Hint: not much)

I don’t know the specific history of 80 Warren St, but I know it is one of the first generation of Tribeca loft coop conversions (circa 1979) and that it is the combination of several (five?) adjoining buildings, so the layouts here are all over the lot.

Unit 53 has been for sale for three months with Tim Melzer at PruDE, with a price drop this week to $1.895mm. As I have said before, I just don’t get small price drops for ‘mature’ listings (puzzling price policy / slow death near Union Squareand more price pain on 16 St /if you knew then what you know now…). I can’t imagine that anyone interested in looking at the unit at $1.895mm would not also have been interested in looking when it was $1.995mm. It is said to be 1,645 sq ft on three floors (a lot of up-ing and down-ing here), with some ceilings of 13 ft.

In this case, they came to market in January at $2.15mm, then dropped to $1.995mm four weeks later. That change – across the $2mm threshold -- could have attracted new buyers, even though it was ‘only’ a change of $155k. But I don’t see new buyers waking up to this at $1.895mm unless they are new to the market. They should already have seen it at $1.995mm if it fits their other criteria.

last sale was a loooong one

A penthouse unit in the building closed in January 2007 at $1.9mm. Don’t know the condition, but it is said to be slightly larger than this one (at 1,740 sq ft) and has two large terraces (1,400 sq ft). I discussed that one when it was featured in the NY Times Residential Sales feature as a six-weeks-to-sale off $1.95mm listing (slippery sales data in NY Times at 80 Warren St). It had actually been for sale since July 2006 and started at $2.5mm

Hmmm factor

This unit sold three years ago off an ask of $1.15mm, after being marketed since September 2002 starting at $1.35mm. The listing agent then was at Corcoran: Tim Melzer. Apart from “brand new top of the line stainless appliances”, it does not appear (from the current listing description) as if there has been significant renovation from April 2004 until now, but maybe the baths are new also (he doesn’t say). Hmmmm….

another New Year’s listing, sitting

66 Leonard St is one of the few buildings that is marketed as having a roof deck barbecue, so I hope that it complies with the Fire Code.

Unit 3C is said to be 2,077 sq ft in an early (for Tribeca) full service condo (1999). Nothing coy going on, it is marketed as “loft perfection”. But it hasn’t found its buyer yet. Not at $2.795mm when it came out in January, and not (yet) at the new-this-week price of $2.695mm. Anybody out there think this will attract new buyers who were not interested at $2.795mm??

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Mar. 27, 2007 - serious price drop in the way far East Village / 735 E 9 St sheds 12%

it can cost a lot to walk-up

I touched on the 4th floor walk-up “extremely unique loft environment” (4FW at 735 East 9^th St), when it was new to market only two weeks ago (new at 9th + D / double secret probation above $1,100/ft). Apparently, they are listening to the dreadful marketing sounds of silence, as the price has dropped from $1.4mm to $1.225mm (for 1,215 sq ft and “[f]eatures too numerous to mention”). This change brings the price to just about $1,000/ft.

a price change that can change expectations

That is what I call a serious price drop, one that can change the market for a property, rather than a death-by-small-increments approach that so many owners and/or agents use. (See puzzling price policy / slow death near Union Square and more price pain on 16 St /if you knew then what you know now….)

Kudos to Mary Ann Cotter at Corcoran for stepping up to the need for a beyond-cosmetics price change. Given the neighborhood and the walking-up, $1,000/ft still seems high to me, but I will be curious to see if this grown-up step gets to a contract. There’s still a lot I don’t get about this listing, though (hence the Animal House reference in the title of my new-this-week on this one, new at 9th + D / double secret probation above $1,100/ft).

Open House Sunday 1 – 2:30

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Feb. 14, 2007 - pricing strategies / the holiday sale at 525 E 11 St

my theory: if you drop, drop meaningfully

A lot of times the peculiar pricing decisions that get made are the result of serous arm-wrestling between seller and listing agent, particularly after an apartment has been on the market “a while”. I suspect that in many cases of small price drops (addressed in September with puzzling price policy / slow death near Union Square about 4 W 16 St) it is the seller who chooses death-by-small-increments – at least I hope it is not the agent’s advice, because in my opinion that just does not work. Small price changes signal nothing useful to the marketplace and change no reasonable buyer’s appreciation for an apartment. (I addressed some serioius price drops in nothing says ‘motivated seller’ quite like dropped dollars / 36 W 15 St #2 on a roll two weeks ago and at 42 E 12 St in December with “serious” seller hasn’t entertained much / serious pricing pain at 42 E 12 St; I also checked in again at 4 W 16 St in January in more price pain on 16 St /if you knew then what you know now…)

President’s Day sale is a new one on me

Unit 7B at 525 E 11 St has been for sale since April 2006. It is said to be a 2 BR + 2 bath 1,200 sq ft unit with high-end kitchen and baths, a terrace, and services including a doorman and gym.

They started at $1.395mm in April, dropped to $1.35mm in June, and to the current $1.299mm in September. That is aggressive pricing for Avenue B, IMO. And two drops of $50k each in ten months does not seem to me to acknowledge the market feedback that ‘the price is too high’.

The Citi-Habitats website has an interesting note to the open house set for Sunday (12:30 – 2): “presidents day special! bring us $1,199,000...deal”. So the “asking price” of $1.299mm is not only “negotiable” (as you sometimes see and often hear an agent say about a listing price), but they are clear about what they will take.

what happens next?

Since this is not an ‘official’ price change, it won’t show up in the listing history shared between firms. (So someone who discovers this listing next week won’t see $1.199mm as an asking price.) If they don’t sell in the President’s Day Weekend Sale, will they drop the official asking price?

It would be weird if they didn’t. Buyers who miss this little data point and come to the listing later will be disadvantaged at not knowing something important about the seller’s motivation. Which does not seem to be in seller’s interest either (keeping such things secret, I mean).

Maybe the “sale” price will work….

update Feb 20: here we are, 8 days after Abraham Lincoln's birthday, 1 day after President's Day (observed), and 2 days before George Washington's birthday, and the Citi-Habitats web listing (link is above, and here) provides no hint that there was a holiday sale: price is $1.299mm (sssshhhhh)

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Jan. 24, 2007 - Counter-intuitive Sales 101 / head-scratching price change as 12 W 17 strays further north

if at first it doesn’t sell, raise the price!

Last month I posted about three interesting lofts on the same block of West 17 Street off Fifth, priced under $3mm (selling West 17th St / 3 very different lofts almost on top of each other). As it happens, all three are still on the market, two with no price change since my post.

But the 5^th fl at 12 W 17 St, offered for sale by Frans Preidel at Brown Harris, has just been increased in price from $2.7mm to $2.8mm. I don’t get it.

if at second it doesn't sell...

This baby has been offered for sale since May 2005 (that is Two Thousand FIVE), starting at $2.6mm. After ten unsuccessful months on the market they raised the price $100k. After almost another ten unsuccessful months on the market, up it goes another hundred grand.

Neither of these price moves was big enough to change the target market of buyers (which is sometimes offered as a rationale for price increases of languishing listings), so I am confused.

Best I can come up with, with all due respect to Mr. Preidel, is that this seller wants to be “on the market” but this seller does not want to actually sell.

I have the vision in my head of Yul Brynner, arms crossed, saying “tis a puzzlement”.

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Dec. 5, 2006 - more non-news: well-priced lofts sell quickly at 55 Greene + 55 E 11

if you price it, they will come

I did this three weeks ago (news alert! well-priced lofts sell (sometimes quickly) … d’oh! / a tale of 2 lofts at 22 W 26), but it bears repeating: lofts that are well-priced sell in the current market, others languish.

Two examples that flew in with today’s news as contracts just signed, after coming to market in October.

driving 55

The 4^th fl at 55 Greene St, the Gunther Building, marketed by Karen Fromer at Barkin Associates was offered at $2.699mm for 2,300 sq ft set up with 1 bedroom and 1.5 baths. (Not a lot of info on that website.) Interesting here that the commercial tenant pays for the building’s maintenance, so the “maintenance” for this unit is zero. This one took a little while to find the right price, even since October, as it started at $2.8mm before bumping up to $2/875mm before settling into the selling zone at $2.699mm.

pushing the price envelope worked here

Can’t tell at this point what the contract price is, of course, but the unit was sold in April 2005 for $2.4mm off an ask of $2.5mm so they tried this year a little aggressively I would say. But it worked.

Meanwhile, the Smiling Blumsteins at Corcoran are in contract as of today at the Penguin House, 55 E 11 St, 3^rd fl. This is a similar size at 2,325 sq ft, also 1.5 baths but 2 bedrooms. The ask was $1.95mm for an “excellent opportunity to create [your] own space”. As they said, “opportunity knocks!” but in this caser it didn’t knock for long.

conservative pricing worked here

The Blumsteins know the market for this building, having sold the fifth floor for $1.91mm (above the $1.9mm ask). So the 3^rd floor owner priced it essentially flat from that sale. (curious discrepancy on that sale between Property Shark which shows a January 2005 closing, and the inter-firm database, which shows January 206 for the 5^th floor closing.) Regardless of whether it was one year or two, this pricing strategy worked, too.

As I said in my Nov 15 post:

Buyers definitely have more power than they had in 2005 but well-priced lofts still attract strong interest from well-qualified buyers. The stuff that has been on the market for a while (and which may be suffering death-by-small-increments, like #8A at 4 W 16 St, which is still on the market at $1.225mm) give buyers relatively more power. But if a loft is well-priced they should expect competition.

BTW, #8A at 4 W 16 St is still on the market at $1.225mm; it has now been out there for 8 months.

Of course, neither 55 Greene nor 55 E 11 St has a doorman.

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Nov. 15, 2006 - news alert! well-priced lofts sell (sometimes quickly) � d�oh! / a tale of 2 lofts at 22 W 26

is ‘the glut’ limited to over-priced lofts?

When I work with buyers – and especially when I work with sellers – we have long conversations about inventory stats and whether they indicate buyers have “a lot” of power in the current market. In my typically infuriating way, my answer is consistently “it depends”.

all buyer-vs. seller power is very local

We just went into contract on an apartment I listed (full price, with competing offers, in 5 weeks), but two loft listings at 22 West 26 St are better illustrations of this.

First, the good news

#12B is in contract after three weeks as of this weekend, with competing offers, off an asking price of $2.195mm. In any market conditions, that is a terrific result for the sellers who owned the loft for 2 ½ years and just completed a major renovation. This is a beautiful top-floor loft with great light, about 2200 sq ft.

Next the not-so-good news (for sellers)

#2B has a similar price and a slightly smaller floor plan than #12B and is – to (legitimately) use an over-used word – a unique and special loft. No kidding – it has to be seen to be appreciated. It has been marketed by Corcoran only since September (at $2.199mm) but it was offered last year by Sotheby’s for $2.695mm, then $2.55mm, then $2.275mm until it dropped off the market. This in a building in which the top sale to date was $1.81mm.

Second-guessing is so unrewarding, but it is hard to believe that it would not have sold last year off this year’s $2.199mm asking price – but the sellers and/or agents were not prepared to do that then.

Now the listing is well familiar to agents who specialize in lofts and is still available. Granted, #2B has a much more limited market than #12B (the way that all truly “unique” lofts have more limited markets) and has some 'second floor' issues, but it is still out there while #12B came and went in a (relative) flash.

Buyers looking at #2B may feel that they should have a lot of power. The two buyers (at least) who competed for #12B will have a different view of who had the power in that negotiation.

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Oct. 31, 2006 - what�s with the witchcraft, and why does everyone want it? (market predictions)

Nice post on Jonathan Miller’s other blog, Soapbox (on appraisals) about the temptation to predict the future: we all have it, you all want it.

I try to tell people all the time that the best I can do is assess how This Loft in This Neighborhood is likely to do in comparison to the market as a whole going forward. If the whole market goes down, will this one? Umm, yup. But either right in line with the rest of the market (if in a ‘mature’ market) or possibly more than the rest of the market (if This loft poses greater risk and opportunity). Same thing going in the other direction, if the overall market improves.

Everything else is a form of witchcraft, no? (Hence the timing of today’s posts.)

But I get the feeling that people want to ‘know’ more. As if I had more. (If I had more, would I still be working??) BOO to all today! (Send me your extra chocolate.)

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