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Manhattan Loft Guy

May. 14, 2009 - Manhattan overall inventory down March-to-April (slightly)


just a nugget, not a trend (yet?)
The Wall Street Journal's on-line article Tuesday about a national trend in a decline in the number of homes for sale in 29 cities was based on a source that has no Manhattan data, but they seem to have checked in with The Miller: "Miller Samuel Inc., an appraisal firm there, reports there were 10,369 cooperative apartments and condominiums on the market in Manhattan at the end of April. That was down 0.7% from March but up 20% from April 2008."

h/t The Real Deal

a trend?
The Miller himself posted on Curbed last Friday about trends in weekly inventory levels by size of apartment, where the hint is in the title: Listings, They Are A-Stabilizing . Money quote comes with bolding in the original:
 

seems to show that inventory stopped growing for all apartment sizes in the beginning of the second quarter. The stabilization of inventory growth reflects the seasonal increase in demand during the spring market.

quibble, quibble

I don't see how a "seasonal increase in demand" (i.e., more buyers in Spring) translates into stabilizing inventory as early as May, because any March contracts (early Spring buyers) have not closed yet (i.e., are still in inventory). But he's been following this much more closely than I have, for a much longer time.



not seeing it in lofts, exactly

Note that my weekly count of Manhattan lofts available for sale does not reflect what The Miller sees in the overall Manhattan coop and condo market:



5/10/2009    1,024
5/3/2009    1,010
 
4/26/2009    995
4/19/2009    990
4/12/2009    989
4/5/2009    1,000
  
3/29/2009    1,004
3/22/2009    973
3/15/2009    960
3/8/2009    949
3/1/2009    934

Loft inventory has been in a very narrow range the last seven weeks: from 989 to 1,024. That may be "stabilizing", but it is stabilizing at a record level. Time, as they say, will tell.




© Sandy Mattingly 2009
 

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