Dec. 31, 2008 - looking for walk-aways by testing the hypothesis that buyers can't close / the lab at The Caledonia, 450 West 17 Street

yes, still beating on The Real Deal

Can you tell yet that I am still frustrated about The Real Deal article that linked two related-but-vastly-different premises? Here's (still) more....

Without having access to actual sales directors of actual new developments that are actually closing these days (unlike Michael Stoler in The Real Deal), I figure that one way to check to see if 10% of buyers are unable to bring enough cash or a bank with them to closing is to look at actual sales data in our listing data-base (cross-checked against StreetEasy) for actual closing and back-on-the-market activity.

closing at The Caledonia

I started with The Caledonia at 450 West 17 Street because I happened to note a recent Manhattan loft closing there and was curious about the building as a laboratory to check The Stoler Hypothesis about walk-away buyers. The Caledonia turns out to be a terrific Manhattan loft laboratory because there is ample rich data, though nothing is totally up-to-date without having access to those actual sales directors who can explain what is behind the numbers.

No discussion of actual sales and listing data would be complete without a Manhattan Loft Guy rant about the limits of data, so here is today's edition of that rant: I looked at the information reported in our inter-firm data-base, then cross-checked that against StreetEasy. The two data sets conflict, of course. Directionally, it appears that StreetEasy has more up-to-date data, which of course irritates me, no end.

actual data

It appears that the earliest contracts were signed for this high profile High Line project, and that closings began in August. Since then, looking first at the inter-firm data-base, then at StreetEasy:

45 closed; the StreetEasy building page (here) says 75
10 active (some are resales); StreetEasy says 13
48 contracts have not yet closed; StreetEasy says 34 are pending

3 apparent walk-aways
#1701 contract signed October 2006, back on market June 2008 (well before Lehman bankruptcy)
#1112 contract signed July 2008, back on market December 14
#1104 contract signed March 2007, back on market (at higher price) December 21

big hole in the data

As far as quality information is concerned, the good stuff is in that signed-but-not-yet-closed group of 34 or 48. The Related Companies sales people know if any of them are in danger of not closing, or if closings have been adjourned to permit buyers to try to drag money together or sell / assign their obligations. StreetEasy shows 15 deeds filed in December (so far) and 22 in November, so the number of pending contracts should shrink pretty fast. By the end of January we will have a much better idea if the Caledonia sales history supports The Stoler Hypothesis about 10% or more buyers walking away from contracts. Or not.
 

© Sandy Mattingly 2008  

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