hard data is good to find / nuggets in NY Times glut aversion piece : Manhattan Loft Guy

Manhattan Loft Guy

Nov. 20, 2006 - hard data is good to find / nuggets in NY Times glut aversion piece

condo pipeline is an issue

The NY Times piece yesterday, Changing Course to Avert a Glut, addresses macro-level questions about what may happen if all the planned condominium apartments in Manhattan are built. In the course of the article, a number of useful data nuggets are revealed.

coops still out-number condos by 4 to 1

According to REBNY, there are 138,000 coop apartments in Manhattan and 36,000 condos. There are just over 14,000 units in condo developments that have already broken Manhattan ground and just under 14,000 in projects still in the planning stages.

So if all 14,000 being built are finished off as condos, the coop to condo ratio will switch to less than 3:1. And if the ‘planning stage’ units are added as condos, the ratio will be closer to 2:1.

But it looks as though not all these units will be developed as condos (or, perhaps, at all).

“Real estate brokers are advising developers to turn some of these projects into anything other than condominiums: rental apartments, hotels or office buildings. And some major banks that lend to condo developers are cutting back on loans for proposed projects or for land that developers want to buy.”

details on condos not being developed

Reporter Christine Haughney cites as examples: 425 Fifth Av (an office building that was aborted as a condo due to poor sales results that will become a hotel); the Gwathmey Siegel “Design for Living” at Astor Place (where 7 of 39 units will be rentals “partly because of a complicated [unexplained] tax structure [that just popped up??] and not just [because of] the state of the condo market”; three Extell buildings that will mix condos with rentals or with hotel rooms (on Riverside Blvd, at 135 W 45 St, and at 151 E 81 St); a condo at 23^rd and 3rd that may mix rentals and condos; and a mixed condo and hotel project at 53^rd and Madison that Macklowe Properties will put up as an office building instead.

That looks like a trend to me….

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Nov. 20, 2006 - hard data is good to find / nuggets in NY Times glut aversion piece

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