Apr. 29, 2009 - 497 Greenwich Street sale was off a low ball?

We put in [low] offers on about eight units in different buildings," said ..., who bought their $2.9 million TriBeCa condo at 497 Greenwich St. sight unseen. "I knew the building, I knew the line, and it was in the neighborhood we wanted ." There was also a rush to get the deal done: ... is pregnant with their first child and due in mid-May. [brackets in original]

© Sandy Mattingly 2009  

Apr. 28, 2009 - Manhattan loft inventory as of April 26 = 995

Number of Manhattan residential lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night continues to reflect a bulging inventory, though (again) essentially flat this week: 
 

This is up 5 in a week, while up 315 since my recorded low in mid-August.

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Apr. 27, 2009 - price of 'museum quality' in Noho = $1,000/ft / 644 Broadway closes quickly

no dithering here
In the (entirely fictional) Manual of Style for real estate agents, the phrase "museum quality" is used because (I guess) "quadruple mint" just does not zing. (The fact that few people actually want to live in a museum may mean it is used ironically, but the phrase is probably used because it sounds impressive, logic be damned.) The Manhattan loft #2E at 644 Broadway hit the market in December for $3.995mm boasting of a "museum quality renovation" plus classic loft features, such as 12 foot ceilings and rather large wood-framed arched windows.

The loft is described as both "3,600 sq ft" and "3,400 sq ft" in the listing text (the higher number) and the listing "Essentials". Using the smaller size, that asking price was $1,175/ft, seemingly aggressive post-Lehman pricing in a neighborhood in which mere 'triple mint' lofts with views and light have sold in the range of $1,000/ft (such as #3E at 684 Broadway, a "3,100 sq ft" loft that was "renovated to perfection" and closed at exactly $1,000/ft in April 2007; the more recent sale of #7E in that building was under $1,000/ft, and was discussed as a new listing on Manhattan Loft Guy on October 4, 2007 and as a 'sobering data point' when it sold, on September 24, 2008). Seemingly, they were asking a premium for the museum stuff in #2E at 644 Broadway.

price is right, after all
The goal in setting the asking price is to attract serious bidders with whom one negotiates the best deal available. In this case, that worked, as the seller got a contract within a 40 day period that included Christmas and New Year's. But the price worked because the seller was negotiable, ending 14% off that asking price, at $3.45mm. If it is a "3,400 sq ft" loft, that's barely $1,000/ft; if it is larger, that's under $960/ft.

note to editors
If ever someone writes that Manual of Style for real estate agents, there should probably be a prohibition against describing someplace as the "heart" of two neighborhoods, even if one is arguably a sub-neighborhood of the other. As an example of prohibited usage, they could refer to "in the heart of NoHo/Greenwich Village". They should also prohibit quoting two different figures for the size of a loft (as here), or two different ceiling heights (12 feet or 16 feet; also, as here).
 

Apr. 27, 2009 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

 
This is the seventy-eighth Manhattan Loft Guy report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days.

The stats as of Sunday night:

• there were 18 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 10 as sold
• 10 of the 18 new ones are offered between $1mm and $2mm, while the 10 sales were offered between $1.125mm and $3.25mm 
• only 2 of the 18 new loft listings are in new development, while 4 of the 10 closed sales were in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 18	Sold = 10
  $500k to $999k	2
  $1mm to $1.99mm	10	3
  $2mm to $2.99mm	2	5
  $3mm to $3.99mm	3	2
  $4mm to $4.99mm
  $5mm+	1

  
   

  By neighborhood	New = 18	Sold = 10
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	3	2
  Clinton	1
  East Village
  Financial District
  Flatiron	1	1
  Gramercy
  Greenwich Village	6	1
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side
  Morningside Heights
  Murray Hill	2
  Midtown East
  Midtown West
  Noho
  SoHo		3
  Sutton Place
  Tribeca	3	1
  Turtle Bay	1
  Upper East Side	1
  Upper West Side		2
  West Village	2

• 
  
   
• New loft listings in new developments

• 79 Worth Street

  2

   
• 
  
   
• Sold lofts in new developments 

  
  

  420 West 25 Street (Loft 25)	1
  475 Greenwich Street (Zinc)	1
  243 West 60 Street (Adagio)	2

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Apr. 24, 2009 - how to be happy selling for $1mm+ off at 43 West 64 Street

don't cry for me Argentina
You'd be tempted to assume that a Manhattan loft seller with this listing history would not be happy:

to market April 28, 2008 at $3.85mm
price drop June 23 to $3.595mm
price drop October 17 to $2.95mm
price drop November 14 to $2.8mm
contract December 19
closed March 13 at $2.55mm

Don't go there! Of course, I have no idea what this seller's actual emotions are, but the fact that the March 2009 seller at $2.55mm was a buyer in the original conversion in February 2004 for $1,970,314 suggests that this seller may be a little chagrined at not getting anywhere near $4mm but should be happy with a 25% gain in five years.

Apr. 23, 2009 - flipping over a kitchen?

© Sandy Mattingly 2009

Apr. 22, 2009 - March nugget / PruDE's signed contracts up for month

© Sandy Mattingly 2009  

Apr. 21, 2009 - Then vs. Now / Then wins, I think, even if this one is better

headwinds are strong
I worked with someone last year who was sufficiently interested in a particular loft in a prime Manhattan loft area that we saw it three times. That one was an interesting mix (to be charitable) of primitive elements and modern touches, with good light, interesting views and an excellent location.

The eight months it took to sell that Manhattan loft straddled the Lehman + AIG + miscellaneous crap = chaos turn of The Market, but it did sell -- around 67% of the original asking price. Now an upstairs neighbor is pushing the envelope a bit, in newly offering for sale a loft with better finishes and more rooms in the exact same foot print (speaking of foot prints, there are also more steps involved), asking 25% more than the neighbor got in late 2008.

That is a tall order.

very recent, very nearby comp needs adjustment
Applying last year's loft sale of a neighbor's unit is more art than science when the conditions of the two lofts are as different as they appear to be with this pair. Give the new one a plus for a more efficient layout, much better kitchen and bath finishes, and greater utility, but strike as a negative a less convenient floor. (That's art.)

Applying last year's loft sale of a neighbor's unit is more science than art when considering that The Market has eroded in the year since the other one was first launched and the months since the other one sold, but strays into art when considering how much erosion in this building in this prime Manhattan loft location. I'd tend to be conservative and think 10% off a late-2008 close, then make the more art-y adjustments based on a rough metric of the cost of upgrading the sold loft's condition to compete evenly with the newly offered loft.

My adjustments net out to 85% to 90% of the current asking price. (Note to self: report back on how this turns out.) So that puts it in the too pushy ...? side of that thread.

The interesting question is whether (if the Manhattan Loft Guy approach to pricing this loft is correct) asking 110% of the likely-market-value will generate enough offers to negotiate to the actual-market-value within a reasonable time frame. (A reasonable time frame here is one that does not eat more equity than is prudent, as the calendar pages fall off.)

The experienced and professional agent representing the new loft for sale is undoubtedly aware of all that I have laid out here, and has applied the best mix of art and science to apply last year's sale of a lesser loft to this year's campaign for a better loft. This situation is very similar to the three lofts newly for sale that I was very familiar with, which I addressed from the perspective of seller's risk vs. agent's risk on March 25 (asking, am I a coward? ... ). So I assume the seller and agent are in agreement on the risks. I'd expect a price adjustment within 3 to 4 weeks if they read the risks the way I do.

to be continued... as usual ...
 

Apr. 21, 2009 - Manhattan loft inventory as of April 19 = 990

Number of Manhattan residential lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night continues to reflect a bulging inventory, though essentially flat this week: 
 

This is up 1 in a week, while up 310 since my recorded low in mid-August.

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

© Sandy Mattingly 2009

Apr. 20, 2009 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were 22 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and only 3 as sold
• 17 of the 22 new ones are offered below $2mm, while the 3 sales were offered between $2mm and $5mm 
• only 1 of the 22 new loft listings is in new development, while 2 of the 3 closed sales were in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 22	Sold = 3
  $500k to $999k	7
  $1mm to $1.99mm	10
  $2mm to $2.99mm	3	1
  $3mm to $3.99mm	1	1
  $4mm to $4.99mm	1	1
  $5mm+

  
   

  By neighborhood	New = 22	Sold = 3
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	5
  Clinton
  East Village	1
  Financial District	2
  Flatiron	1
  Gramercy	1
  Greenwich Village	2	1
  Kips Bay		1
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side
  Morningside Heights
  Murray Hill
  Midtown East
  Midtown West
  Noho
  SoHo	2
  Sutton Place
  Tribeca	4	1
  Turtle Bay	1
  Upper East Side
  Upper West Side	1
  West Village	2

• 
  
   
• New loft listings in new developments

• 80 Leonard Street

  1

   
• 
  
   
• Sold lofts in new developments 

  
  

  415 East 26 Street (15 Madison Square North)	1
  415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	1

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Apr. 18, 2009 - another seller who gets it / pricing 7% off 2007

nice try, but enough?
There's a loft newly offered for sale in a Manhattan Loft Guy fave building (value!) that -- I think -- is taking the right approach to The Market. The 2009 seller was a 2007 buyer, and is starting in The (new) Market at 7% off the market price of The (old) Market.

I know what you are thinking
But you may be thinking that 7% off a close-to-the-top of The (old) Market is not enough, even as a starting point for soliciting interest. But what I have not told you is that the loft appears (from a comparison of the two listing descriptions, then and now) to have been given one of those no-detail-overlooked renovations in the interim. If so, I believe that the 2009-seller-from-2007-buyer has probably added enough value to make the 7% 'discount' from 2007 a healthy place to start.

Only The Market knows, however. I will watch it, so you will now when The Market decides.


 

© Sandy Mattingly 2009  

Apr. 17, 2009 - break away to win the neighborly competition / so many lofts, so many dollars ... but no sales (yet)

© Sandy Mattingly 2009 

Apr. 15, 2009 - a tale of 2 Sohos, or 2 tales of Soho at $900/ft?

one tale: prime Soho bring-your-architect sells quickly at full ask -- PDQ, considering
The Manhattan loft #5E at 362 West Broadway was marketed as a true project for real loft lovers ("original loft space"; "bring your architect"; "create your dream home") so you must assume that this "1,100 sq ft" space was not meant to be lived in (by the buyer, at least) until some serious money had been spent in renovation / upgrade / gutting. Evidently, The Market thinks that such an opportunity in prime Soho (between Grand and Broome on Soho's 'main street') is worth $900/ft, as this loft closed at the full asking price of $999,000 on March 16. The sale did not take very long, all things considered in the modern world, as it started on October 27 and found a contract by January 14.

Apr. 14, 2009 - 10 Bleecker remarkable space holds value remarkably well

Apr. 14, 2009 - Manhattan loft inventory as of April 12 = 989

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night continues to reflect a bulging inventory, though -- once again -- down ever so slightly: 
 

This is down 11 in a week, while up 309 since my recorded low in mid-August, and the second week in a row with a slightly reduced inventory in my limited data set (since June).

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Apr. 12, 2009 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were 16 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and only 5 as sold (continuing a strong trend of weak sales numbers: after previous weeks of 13, 7, 7, 12, 7, 9, 7, 3, 7, 14 and zip)
• 14 of the 16 new ones are offered below $3mm, while 3 of the 5 sales were offered between $3.5mm and $4.2mm 
• only 1 of the 16 new loft listings are in new development, while 3 of the 5 closed sales were in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 16	Sold = 5
  $500k to $999k	4
  $1mm to $1.99mm	5	2
  $2mm to $2.99mm	5
  $3mm to $3.99mm		2
  $4mm to $4.99mm	1	1
  $5mm+	1

  
   

  By neighborhood	New = 16	Sold = 5
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea
  Clinton	1
  East Village
  Financial District
  Flatiron		3
  Gramercy	1
  Greenwich Village	1	1
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side	1
  Morningside Heights
  Murray Hill
  Midtown East
  Midtown West
  Noho	1
  SoHo	6	1
  Sutton Place
  Tribeca	3
  Turtle Bay
  Upper East Side	1
  Upper West Side
  West Village	1

• 
  
   
• New loft listings in new developments

• 34 Greene Street

  1

   
• 
  
   
• Sold lofts in new developments 

  
  

  140 West 22 Street (Clement Clarke)

  3

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

© Sandy Mattingly 2009
 

Apr. 11, 2009 - the problem of price discovery (hint: you have to pay attention)

if a tree falls in the forest ...
I've been mulling a long-ish post on price discovery for quite a while (not writing it, obviously; just mulling). Pulling together some interesting riffs by other bloggers and news articles and market activity (and market inactivity), all in service of the idea that one of the problems with The (current) Market is that it is so thin that it is hard to know where the right price is for a particular Manhattan loft. In that situation, with actual loft closing information rather scarce, it is critically important that sellers pay attention to prices that do not work. Seems kind of simple, no? (simple as in simpleton, btw)

Perhaps this will be a start of a string that will, together, compose a long-ish post on price discovery ....

A new Manhattan loft listing in out-of-the-way Tribeca reminded that there had been an interesting loft offered for sale in that same building last year ... I wondered what happened to that one? I noted just now that that one did not sell, after having been offered for about 3 months. So, we learned that that price for that loft ($1,300/ft) did not work,right?

Then I noticed that yet another loft in that building that has been for sale for most of the last 7 months for just over $1,000/ft. So, you'd think we've learned that that price for that loft does not work either (no price change in 7 months is pretty stubborn, no?). But that one is still "on the market" in the sense that it is an active listing, and perhaps in the sense that they will entertain any offers -- though they are unlikely to get many.

if a price fails in The Market, but no one is paying attention ...
That new one? Offered at $7/ft less than the unsuccessful-for-7-months loft (one dollar off per month??).

head-scratching ensues (no hilarity, yet)
As far as I can tell from the prose, pix and plans, the three lofts in question are in comparable condition.

As far as I can tell, The Market has resisted Loft #2 (in our sequence above) at about $1,000/ft. As far as I can tell, there is no reason to think that a $7/ft "discount" on Loft #3 will be any more attractive to The Market. As far as I can tell, the seller (and agent) for Loft #3 learned nothing from the (non)sale of Loft #2, which has lasted 7 months -- so far.  Head scratching ensues ....

 

© Sandy Mattingly 2009

Apr. 9, 2009 - some sellers are not adapting

2009 does not equal 2007 + renovation + $$$, does it?
I was refreshed yesterday to find a Manhattan loft offered at 80% of its 2007 price (some sellers are adapting). Let's swing the emotional dial the other way for today's candidate for the other end of the (newly re-christened) too pushy ... or not pushy at all? thread.

This candidate from the other Manhattan Loft Guy pushy pole is -- like yesterday's -- a bit off the beaten (prime) loft track geographically and was sold in 2007. But the pricing comparison is not as simple as yesterday, as this loft was upgraded since 2007. It is being marketed as having a much reduced price, as well as being a high-class design. (Having compared the listing descriptions and looked at the building history, this loft was far from a gut renovation, but there was a significant change in the layout.)

Simple arithmetic confirms the drops have been rather dramatic (now off one-third[!], in two steps), while a scan of the pix and floor plan show that the space has been improved from its (former) lovely-but-basic condition. But ... I have to ask ...

... what were they thinking?
I understand that these people are very proud of the improvements they made to their (essentially) new-in-2007 space and I am willing to assume that they spent a fair amount of money upgrading this pretty darn big loft. But not as much as  a gut renovation would have cost. And they are -- no doubt -- frustrated by whatever change in circumstances have turned them from 2007-buyers+upgraders into 2008-now-2009-sellers.

But they started out trying to sell in a post-Lehman world with very pre-Lehman notions about value. In fact, the original asking price -- as improved -- was ... (wait for it) ... twice what they paid. TWICE what they paid.

how tall is that order?
It is a very tall order to persuade The (cruel, cold) Market that you have doubled the value of a Manhattan loft in a full gut renovation, let alone in a more modest upgrade. Of course, it did not work, as The Market is unpersuaded. So they took a million dollar hit (how frustrating must that be for a seller??), but that did not work either. The new price is a full one-third less than where they started, yet still one-third more than they paid in 2007 (before upgrading).

I get it that the loft is special -- perhaps even unique. I suspect that they did not spend a million bucks on their upgrade. I suspect that The Market in 2009 is not going to pay more than the 2007 price + the 2007 upgrade cost, and probably will pay less. I suspect that this will sit for a while, without additional dramatic drops.

not one of the 8 million stories?
Perhaps they are not really one of the 8 million stories, and do not really have to sell. (Odd they they would 'market' in that case, but whatever ....) If they have to sell, The Market is unimpressed, so far. I have run it up the Manhattan Loft Guy pushy pole, where it sits on the too pushy ...? top, waiting to be updated when something changes.

 

© Sandy Mattingly 2009

Apr. 8, 2009 - some sellers are adapting

2009 as 80% of 2007?
It was somewhat refreshing to come across a Manhattan loft recently new to market that is priced with The (new) Market in mind. The seller knows exactly what life near the top of The (old) Market was like, as s/he bought it two years ago. The seller is testing the proposition that The Market is off 20% in two years by asking 80% of what s/he paid in 2007.

Even in a thin market, you'd like to think that that kind of behavior will be rewarded with a serious bid followed by negotiation and a contract.

The loft is in a brand-name loft nabe, though in an out-of-the-way corner. It was marketed two years ago with an emphasis on the quality of its renovation, so it should probably still qualify for three mints after just two years. It is interesting that the 2007-buyer-turned-2009-seller bought way back then only after some months and a series of price drops (about 12% off the original ask, in total).

bad thread title, amended
While this loft logically falls within the thread I have been calling too pushy ... or not pushy enough?, it shows the gap in my thread title. My mistake was using 'not pushy enough' as one pole in a market in which there are no below-market offerings. This loft is probably not pushy at all, which is about as conservative a pricing scenario as we are likely to see from all but the most motivated (desperate) sellers.

This one will be very interesting to follow.

 

© Sandy Mattingly 2009  

Apr. 6, 2009 - Manhattan loft inventory as of April 5 = 1,000

Batting a thousand: Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night continues to reflect a bulging inventory, though down ever so slightly: 
 

This is down 4 in a week, while up 320 since my recorded low in mid-August, and it breaks a new streak of 5 weeks in a row with record inventory in my limited data set (since June).

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.